I agree with you. But as for me, betting on the club you root for is not very good. Often you can be irrational in your thinking and lose a bet because of it. All the same, as for me it is better not to bet on the club you support. I lost a couple of times, then decided not to bet on my favorite club.
Happens to me all the time because I am too emotional about my teams in football and finally I stopped betting on the winner market when one of my team is playing and I rather bet on other things like the total corners in the match which are purely random.
All the mentioned analysis can be summarized into a simple sentence "do bet when you know what you are going to bet and when you have the funds that you can afford to lose". No need to make it complicated when it goes to gambling, just do it as your own preferences and limit.
I never get the afford to lose money thing because even if I am betting 5 cents, I am passionate about my bet and winning makes me feel good and losing makes me sad, as simple as that.
For the ball, I'm not interested in anything other than big game matches because usually the mafia is easy to guess. and also Over / Under in the Goals can be deceptive. in some cases I have experienced at least 3-4 Goals before the game finishes. this is the silly thing in football. Currently there is a champhion league which is actually the right momentum if you are interested in betting. because of course all teams are trying their best to win
Late game goals hurts really bad and I am not here trying to promote stake but they had a promotion recently I remember where if your team is ahead at the 60 minute mark, you get paid as a winner.