Apart from all said:
I think, and I have some clues, that the volumes of all sites that trade BTC is heavily overstated.
https://medium.com/dirt-protocol/how-much-are-cryptocurrency-volumes-overstated-7a80873ffe69by as much as 95%.
So only 5% is real volume.. the rest is fake, the sites trading inside themselves to get higher ratings.
This gives a reply to the people asking.. who is controlling this market.. It is much easier to influence a market with low liquidity... Which I think is the case with Crypto. .... this is not surprising.. it is also true with lots of other markets.. where the players all try to have an advantage.
I recently (on 3 of Dezember) sold 13 BTC on Kraken at 51.000 to the CHF, which is around 54.000 USD. I sold it OTC on WhatsApp.. not wanting to put this sum up fearing a meltdown.
In the next three hours the price dropped some 5%.. in my opinion.. because Kraken tried to sell these.. They say my sell had nothing to do with it.. but.. hmm.
Then.. they took 4 days to credit me with the money.. saying the CHF is to illiquid to have it at hand.. but hey.. If they really had this daily volume... they should have been able to liquidate my trade within hours.
But these are mere speculations.
I sold my BTC, I am a HODL since 2014, because I think that there are risks involved in the HODL arguments, that BTC (and other crypto) has such an intrinsic value, because its quantity is restricted etc.
I think that the legacy banking sector is forming against Crypto... I tried with my Brazilian Bank to bring the USD 800.000 to Brazil and got told (by ITAU).. legal, not legal.. on your Tax report, not on your tax report.. we do not take the money.. you CANNOT get this money into your account.. therefore seriously hampering the USE of BTC. I used the proceeds to buy a house.
I managed to find another Brazilian Bank, which would take the proceeds, that came from KRAKEN.. after a while.. but it took me in all two weeks of work and lots of grey hair. It is only an example of how the legacy banking sector is succeeding in hampering the usefulness of crypto.. after all.. in the end you want to exchange it for something real.. a house, a car, food, expenses... whatever..
Then there is this environmental problem with the Hashrate being so energy expensive.. I know.. that people argue that it all is from green, superfluous energy bla bla.. but. hey.. In the end..I think.. unless we make sure that all mining is with Geodesic or Cold fusion :-) .. probably it is made in some country with Coal..
So.. I at least have considerably lowered my BTC Holding.. fortunately 1 hour before one of the biggest price corrections (3 December to today 51.000 to 30.000 USD price correction).
Then there is all theses post with Chart Analysis, which has proven inefficient over and over and over again in stock trading.. Do not get me started on the usefulness of this.. but hey..I you think 30.000 is a CLEAR threshold.. just because you manage to draw a blue line in a nice slope.. you probably also believe that the position of Venus and Mars explains you last job application in any way...
I am still holding half of my BTC..because hey.. I bought it TOTALLY speculative and horsed around with it, never even considering it real money but only plastic chips in a casino. I invested in Bankrolls.. gained lots (tripled the amount) during 2016-2017, then invested in some black sheep.. ( lost 75% because the stole the bankroll).. did lots of other bullshit.. gave away whole BTC to nephews just to get them interested..
But now.. that is has become a big part of my savings.. .. My third point..
Being your own bank.. Really difficult.. I am a very savvy person, when it comes to computers, IT, etc..
But whenever I plug in my Ledger.. it asks me to upgrade the firmware. The other day I found out how to test my Mnemonic Phrase.. and.. I had one error in it..
Whenever I try to make a transfer.. it asks me. "do you want to upgrade your BTC to SEGWIT or SEGWIT2.. or whatever".. If you send to the wrong address you loose everything.. Anyway.. Only 1% of world population have the guts to listen to hours and hours of Youtube Talks explaining of how to maintain your wallet.. have secure computers.. have a scheme in place if they die, so their heirs have knowledge to get to the BTC. Not at all consumer friendly.. only for geeks..
So.. these 3 points: Energy, doubtful markets, legacy Banking system and Governments putting up hindrances, not user-friendly .. Actually 4 points..I think.. will reduce the usefulness and success of crypto in the future.
And.. markets that are not really liquid and understood and even less regulated.. 5 points.
Do not understand me wrong.. I still have half of my BTC, ETH, XPR holdings.. but I am sitting in my new House on the beach and happy I bought something.. even if I die.. that my kids can enjoy.. exchange for money/food/stocks.. or crypto again.. hehe.