Topic: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? - page 18. (Read 7009 times)

NPR/PBS/Marist published a poll two days back and it has Biden leading Trump by 7 points when Kennedy's option is given as an independent candidate. The numbers are: Biden - 44%, Trump - 37%, Kennedy - 16%. I am not sure whether Kennedy will end up with one-sixth of the vote on the election day, but it is very clear that he is taking away votes from Trump. Then there was another poll from Yahoo News which was released today, and it shows Biden ahead by 1 point: Biden - 40%, Trump - 39%, Kennedy - 9%. Kennedy has become the biggest headache for the GOP.

Well, he has the right to run for the presidency as an independent and since democrats know that Kennedy is more likely to hurt Republicans that Democrats, it is better for them, tho in the primaries it does not even matter as Trump seem to already have the cat in the bag since he announced his run to get again into the White House.

If anything, this situation makes me think about the future of the political career of DeSantis. If Trump gets back to the Presidency DeSantis will likely lose his backing and will sooner or later be replaced by a democrat or a Trump sponsored governor.

He committed a major miscalculation by running and not appealing the way his main donors expected, he could have perfectly stayed out the race and keep the Trump support on him, while Trump was still politically revelant.

Looks like Trump has received an upper hand now in the polls, which is not surprising given the condition at southern border. But I am not sure why Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still being taken seriously by the pollsters. He has already announced that he will run as an independent and has gone out of the Democrat primaries. BTW, if Kennedy runs as an independent, then he is more likely to hurt Trump rather than Biden. Some of the GOP politicians have already started attacking Kennedy, for his decision to stop participating in the Democrat primaries.

Trump may be gaining steam and momentum, as so many predicted it could happen. In a normal world, we would agree those indictments would have ended his political career, but not in this bizarre context, he is getting more popular.

Also, Michelle has already confirmed in interviews she is not interested in going for the presidency and even if she tried, she won't be appealing enough to defeat Donald Trump, the democrat party is trying to go as safe as possible, with a white male with a long standing political career as Biden is.
It is kind of amusing you decided to toss some money on her and even she is not even running, you managed to get a win.

Yes, Trump is indeed  bettors favourite at the moment, for some reason:



What's interesting is that I placed a bet on Michelle Obama couple of moths ago, and today I'm being offered a cash-out 2 times more of my bet. I'm going to wait because it was a small bet and today's cash-out wouldn't make me happy that much, but seriously, does she have a chance?

The amount of information Google (and other big tech companies) have about individual people is insane.

Many people don't even think twice about it, but just to give a simple example let's say you use Google Maps to drive somewhere. You drive around and the phone is logging everywhere you go.

It also logs the current speed and location of your car. If Google wanted, it could contact local police and tell them where you were driving faster than the speed limit. Google has all the data about max speed and your speed and location, so it would be evidence (at least technically, not sure if legally allowed).

That's a really simple example, but it opens your eyes to what Google might be able to do with your data. Think about it, it has all your contacts, who you talk to, where you go, etc, etc. It probably even has your future events in your calendar. Noticed that Google changes the background image to match your text?, for example if you add a "BBQ at Mat's place" it will show you a BBQ image. That means they know the type of things you are doing and when you are doing them.

It's really creepy when you start noticing these things. And it is just getting worse by the day.

This means that of course Google et al will have a very accurate prediction on an individual level about who you are voting for. It might even know that you went to certain types of events associated with specific political parties.

Having all that information at mass scale, I think a company like Google might have enough information to be able to estimate which states are going to end up voting one way or another, in a much better way than a simple telephone poll.

That situation about receiving baby products because Google already knows one is expecting one is kind of creepy, to be honest. Also all this situation makes me think on the possibilities of a Google employee taking advantage of their clearance level to access that statistical information, so they can bet on political elections in the United States (or even abroad) having a better picture of it is actually going to happen.
Probably it would be against their hiring contract, but if they are just a lil bit careful, they could get away with it and constantly pocket money on USA presidential elections or elections in other countries where Google products are popular, like Europe.

Yeah, that's exactly what I was referring to.

All these companies have the ability to predict the political affiliation of most users by following them online.

Remember the case of the young woman that was sent babies products offerings because they knew she was pregnant?, same thing for political affiliation.

That's how they feed you different types of stories or videos, to push you to the side of whoever paid more money for your attention.

They are better tools actually, but are not in the public domain for the people to see. See, Companies as Google, Meta and Amazon use their tools to collect information about us, so they can target us with ads which are more likely we will pay attention to.
They also have I formation on our political opinions and standings, since we write about it on the internet. So Google may have a pretty good idea on how much of their users (which is a high percentage of the population) is going to vote for.
I would bet that information is secretly shared with the elite members of the Republican or Democrat party, for them to adjust their political speech, to importe their chances of winning, though that is only speculation from my part.

It would be just too tempting to use personal information that way.

Yeah, polls are basically the main tool we have to estimate how the population will vote.

They are not perfect, but I don't think there is a better tool out there.

Maybe with AI and the massive privacy issues we have they might get a better model.

These "polls" are always known to be off at this point in the game.  They tend to poll in the direction they want the outcome to come out in.  I'm just waiting until the debates start to heat up.  That's the point back in 2016 when trump was losing by a ton started gaining traction.  Will be interesting to see this time around how others fare against him as they know his personal attack tactics.

Polls are not supposed to be use as a foretelling way to analyze election results. Remember the so-called red wave which was supposed to ensue last midterm election?
It turned out to be very disappointing for Republicans, because the polls were predicting a massive win over democrats both in the Senate and the house of representatives. It did not happen, and considering this incoming presidential election is more revelant, important and also impredictable than the midterms. I would take all poll predictions with the grain of salt.

In reality either of those both candidates could have a significant lead and we would not even know about it until election night. It is better just to go in intuition and own research to decide where money us to be placed, when comes to bets

Well.. both the points are valid. My point was that Trump has got a bump recently as a result of the border crisis. But I agree, this 1% lead may not be too large (but it is rare for Republican candidates to get large leads). Let's see whether these trends are going to last for a couple of months. From what I can see, the biggest impact is being felt on swing states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania, and this is going to be bad news for the Democrats. Today also there was another poll from The Messenger/HarrisX. Trump is ahead by 4 points.

https://themessenger.com/politics/poll-trump-maintains-narrow-lead-over-biden-exclusive

Still it is not a massive difference, and many things can change in the time we have until the election day.

In any case, it can go either way I think, either Trump or Biden might end up being the next president.

A 1% difference in a poll is still too small in my mind.

I believe that it could be shown as 5%+ for trump or Biden and I would still not trust it. I would guess that polls are made up and do not believe in them if you ask me. I mean its based on what you want to believe so if you want to believe then you could believe it but I wouldn't believe it if it was me. They are usually not done properly and then they look and show something that is not real.

Remember the time polls showed 1% for Trump to be the republican candidate? That was literally before he became president that same election, not only he became the nominee from republican party, but he also won the presidency as well. So if you like trump so much, you shouldn't believe in these polls at all for sure, he beat all the odds before, doesn't mean he will win, just means polls are not real.

We are talking about a presidential poll, and this is for aggregate of polls. In this case, I would say that the +1.0% lead shown for Trump is not very insignificant. And as a matter of fact, different poll agencies have published POTUS polls for the last few days. And out of the last 17 polls, only three have shown Biden in the lead. All the other polls have shown either Trump in the lead, or a tie. Given this, I would say that Trump is clearly having an advantage right now. And also, the electoral college system will amplify that advantage.

I think Wikipedia should be alright as a source of pointers of information, that is, there must be a link to the actual poll in the article.

But 1% is too small difference anyway

First of all, I wouldn't consider Wikipedia as an authentic source of information. And secondly, +1.0% lead for the GOP candidate is earth shattering. During the 2016 POTUS election, Hillary actually had a lead of 1.9% and despite that Trump swept the polls with 304 electoral votes against 227 for Hillary. A lead of +1.0% in favor of Trump would actually mean 400+ electoral votes and even lean-blue states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Maine flipping to the GOP. And I would say that the polls look fairly accurate. There is a lot of anger even in blue states, regarding the border crisis.

If health and age is to be considered as one of the important factor which they look at before a candidate is being selected or voted for into the presidential seat then their are lot of people who will never get a chance of becoming a president, but it seems like the people chose what they think the person can do over their health status, they also judge by what they believe the person can do which his age can’t be a limit to it.

Although sometimes I see favoritism at work in some major countries election US is not an exception, what the group, institutions or individuals who are voting for the candidate have to gain at the end of the day rather than what they think the person will do for the country when they have been voted into power. Right now I see Biden having a higher chance of winning over his opponents.

The proper term to consider would be the Biden administration not the singular man though it might all hinge on him.   I think he does have impairment by age but this isnt shocking news, USA has elected a president who had a terminal medical condition yet they wanted the man to sit as President anyway because his positives were greater then any impairment he was suffering.
  I would only judge Biden in the same way, for sure he has more challenges at his age then a man 20 years younger.  This is part of life, you wont always be 20 and with perfect health but also its true plenty of 20 year olds act like idiots waste their talent and good health and have awful judgements, arent reliable, etc.  People are obviously not (re)electing Biden because he is perfect just in preference to others and their decision process etc.
  On next election I dont think Biden loses from this health factor, many voters are also old and accept the conditions of his office.  If he fails in some way like poor management then that'll count more.   Imo so far I will guess Biden remains favorite to retain office.

If we're being honest Biden's own Democratic party wanted Hilary to run and win this office not him, I bet they were thinking of age.   Biden only got vice president as an immediate counter to Obama who barely had any experience in top office, Biden was quite vital but to the Democratic party this his was use and it was gone after Obama left.
    To treat Biden as one and done kind of used up was a kind of betrayal imo to not let the man run, in the end Biden was correct and Hilary was not popular enough; it was a bad step by the party to back these doubts as the most important consideration by which to exclude Biden.  I think in a parallel universe of Biden not Hilary in 2016, Biden wins that.