Topic: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? - page 16. (Read 7009 times)

I'm wondering if that's possible, to be honest. In my opinion a President sitting in prison is something
incompatible with reality. So, don't bet on Trump, guys, because you are going to lose your bets. Because it is very likely that he is going to prison sooner or later.

I believe it has been argued before that democrats would be in favor of eliminating the electoral voter system of the United States and replace it with a direct voting system, it would be greatly in benefit of their party. Usually, Republicans do not agree with that position, it would mean the power of the elections would be held in big cities, which tend to be democrat.

Also, in a recent polling, it seems that in a third way run, Kennedy would be able to secure up to the 22% of the voters, being most of them from the Republican party, or better said, from people who identify themselves as Republican but are not willing to vote for Trump. It makes me wonder whether Trump would be willing to pay a good chunk of money to Kennedy so he withdraws from the presidencial run or not. I do not even know that is legal, by the way.

Its the voting system of the union and it makes sense in that context but purely divided by the population nothing else then its obviously a deviation from pure democracy by number of votes alone.  Its there for a reason though and probably stays despite the confusion on every election its been that way for a long time.  Alter that system and probably it requires a reevaluation of the union similarly which many wont want to open that particular box and suffer endless arguments and disruption, I dont see it happening.
  Considering his starting point, the large percentage for Kennedy is quite surprising maybe he can build from there.

Even if Kennedy only ends up having a small percentage of the votes as an independent candidate, it is still pretty much relevant to the outcome of this incoming election.
In the end, whether we like it or not, this election will end up being decided by least than 20000 people living in swing states, because states like California, New York or Connecticut already are being taken for granted by democrats. States like Texas and Florida are being taken for granted by Republicans, swing states are key and if Kennedy can deviate a 2-3% of votes which could have been initially intended to go for Trump, then that small percentage could boost the chances for Biden to win his re-election bid.

It is a weird system, because it implies the vote of the people are worth more or less depending on where they live, but it is what it is.

For me these things are very strong, on the one hand there is Trump who despite all his problems is doing very well, I consider that this Lord has had many accusations of all kinds this year, I think it has been a very stormy year for This being, however, I have been thinking that politics in the USA has gotten a little out of control, it is no longer like before, where everything was done in a very diplomatic way, now they are taking the cutlutra of saying and doing many things, of cheating, because I believe that some politicians have used their influence and their powers to put Treump against the system, I'm just saying something, if Trump becomes President, what will happen to those institutions, judges who agreed to make all those accusations to Trump where some I know are false, so what are you doing with those people? they will go? will they resign? io Trump will be able to face the country like dishonest people? This is in the event that Trump wins.

Kenedy's case could be very strong, for me he is one of the best candidates, in fact his last name is one of the most important in the USA, where all of his rulers have not done very well in their mandates, because they died young or in power, I think that this will be a very good contest, the case of Trump as well as other politicians can be quite strong, because I have seen that they no longer respect each other and they throw each other or whatever and whatever the other defends themselves, this It's like politics in third world countries where basically things have to happen in other ways, where they risk their lives and can even risk their own lives, because politics is like that, when it's carried out at the level. of disrespect and cheating, of dirty games, it seems incredible to me that politics in the USA is reaching these novices, here where I live and one is used to politicians being like that, but really a country like the USA is difficult, this wants to say that when we are Reaching a level of power where they want to obtain it no matter what.

If anyone actually believes that Kennedy will be getting that kind of votes, they have absolutely no idea how the votes has been in the last 50 years of the American elections. Just get that idea out of your head because it is not going to be anywhere near that level. The maximum amount of votes he will be getting could be 2% or 3 at best, nothing more than that.

Just realize that it is going to be either Trump or Biden and both will get 40% votes. Not that it's known who is going to get it, people realized when they saw how Trump ruled the nation, they would rather have Biden and when they saw Biden they may say they would rather Trump, in the end one thing is reality; both of them are horrible and all of the nation would prefer if there was someone more decent. I mean it is not even republican or democrat anymore, it is literally down to the person, it is about Trump and Biden, not democrat vs republican anymore, even a decent republican would get votes from democrats and vice versa.

No... that's not what the polls say. I agree that Kennedy is more likely to hurt Trump. But it is not all black and white. The Messenger/HarrisX released an opinion poll a few hours back. It has Trump ahead by a massive 6 points. The voting pattern is as follows:

https://themessenger.com/politics/poll-trump-continues-to-lead-biden-exclusive

Trump: 44%
Biden: 38%
Kennedy: 14%
West: 4%

Many of the other opinion polls released recently also show the same pattern. Biden's votes are declining to high 30s from mid 40s that he enjoyed before Kennedy announced his candidature. A significant number of Democrats seems to be shifting to Kennedy and it's not just the GOP voters. There are centrist Democrat voters who are not comfortable with voting for Trump. Such voters are preferring Kennedy now.

BTW, another poll from Harvard-Harris last week also showed Trump with a huge lead (Despite Kennedy polling 21%).

https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-october-4/

Trump: 41%
Biden: 34%
Kennedy: 21%
West: 3%

So both are democrat and Trump used to be registered as one so I guess its all viable but I doubt its the case.   There are significant reasons to disagree with Trump and for Trump not to run at all if Republicans want to win the actual election.   His own former VP has no support for Trump, many see that campaign as a negative for the party political control and success in forthcoming elections so thats their own party not the opposition.
    Mainstream or swing votes are not going to go towards Trump this time, he isnt very likely to win at all without some support from those people who do not see themselves as Democrat or Republican just tax payers.   If he cannot get these middle voters then its a doomed mission and its Trump blocking all the other candidates viability.

The bad side of all this games and it effect on Trump and Kennedy votes is that it will be two against one since Trump and Kennedy will be sharing the votes and the rulling bagging out the remaining votes, ant we going to see a more Biden time if this current speculations plays out as thoughts, this mechanism of vite dividing have been one of fhs strong political tools in current democratic process.


And those politicians that have the clear understanding of that have managed to stay ahead of the counterparts and most time, the ruling party is the one at advantage, hust like in this case, Biden already have a 50% while the remaining 50% will ve divided by both Trump and Kennedy, according to the poll.

I believe it is an understatement to say these incoming elections will be "polarizing" or "very polarizing", I am among the people who believe the United States of America could change as a country after this election, depending on what happens and what the people end up choosing.
And to be honest, Kennedy makes harder to bet on Trump, if Kennedy had not showed to be appealing for Republican voters then I would dare to out some bucks on Trump as the winner, because, whether we like it or not, he still a strong grasp on the average voter.
Kennedy being part of the plans from the Democrat party to spoil Trump's run is nothing crazy to assume, election tricks are not exclusive from the right wing in the USA.

Too early to make assumptions. If Kennedy runs as an independent, he is more likely to get votes from people who would otherwise refrain from voting. From the recent opinion polls, I could see that he is hurting Trump more than Biden, but the margin is not as big as we would have imagined. It is more lke 30% Trump votes, 20% Biden votes and 50% neutral votes. But as the race tightens, third party candidates will get more and more unpopular. And the 2024 POTUS elections are likely to become very polarized due to the prevailing political atmosphere within the United States.

In my country, the talk of voting is becoming more boring because over the years, elections have been marred by the powers that be and vote does not count. They are only interested in just fulfilling all form of righteousness when it comes to electoral laws but they already have their candidate who already have his or her way to power. So anybody Voting is likely wasting his or her time as they want to use it to complement the ones they look into.
Voting is more of one wasting his or her time here in my country as the politicians and power that be hi jack the whole process as time goes on. So you can see how it is to get involved to gambling  and how to goes.

It is indeed possible there was some underground planification and purpose for the candidacy of Mike to happen. My guess is that he was supposed to drain votes from Trump somehow, by using his side of the story on what happened in the capitol back in January 6th. Though, Trump was intelligent enough to demonize Pence in front of Republican voters, so the effect of Pence within the run was neglectable. Mike probably realized this and since donors were not further interested in him, he decided to withdraw from his bid for the presidency.

It's also probable that this new candidate was added for some reason that is not too obvious, for example, to extract votes from other candidate, or to make more polarized the opinion of people, etc.

These days politics is a very sophisticated game that runs very deep, and it would be naive to think that whatever is being presented is just a direct thing.

Even the timing of the events is carefully planned, so we will have to see what's the effect of this nomination.

I may not partaking in US election betting because I hate politics and I am not a fan though I believe last US election I cast a bet but only a hundred bucks but I fail(this only happens because I was dare by my cousin to bet against Him ) and now in this one I already turn Him down for a rematch.

But lets see if  I find it interesting whom will be the opponent of Biden , another thing is that I am not even betting in my country's election so why will I need to risk my money in them , I may enjoy loving using my money in Football or in Boxing game that I can have more enjoyment and have better views who might win ..

I think that Kennedy Jr. is simply a puppet by the Democratic party. He's views are pretty similar to the views of Donald Trump and he will run as an independent candidate in order to steal votes from Trump. This will benefit Biden and the Democrats, but it won't be enough for them to win.
My prediction is that Trump will become president, but they will put him in prison, so the USA will become the first country, which has an elected president, who runs the administration from prison. The Democrats made a big mistake by turning Donald Trump into a martyr.

Regardless of what he's seeking, Trump is a martyr in the eyes of his supporters. How would he get such popularity otherwise? "not an idiot"? Many people would argue with that, I can assure you. Right now Trump is ahead:



The question is, for how long. Seriously, I think his chances of being elected are close to zero. I mean, it will be more obvious when we are closer to the elections.

I hope it's neither of them and that new player enters to the race, that has enough energy, vision, brains, it could be young but for some weird reason US is now heavily on older granpas. Maybe US citizens need a dad figure so badly, that they need to elect one, but it needs to be older then allmost all the voters for that to work.

Ideally that new player would be someone who unites the country rather then divides it. Things seem way too polarized, but i don't know, maybe it's healthy to voice strong feelings out loud and it just looks like a mess to overseas. After all that's how you fix in unhealty relationships as well. Things get heated before they get resolved. That heating just seem to be happening not just in nation level, but in a world level. World is in the middle of change, hopefully this leads to stronger and more united world in the end. But i am afraid hat things probably get worse before they can get better. I am afraid to even ponder what that worse would look like at the current mayhem.

Pete Buttigieg would be great presidental candinate, but then again, he might be better off working where he is doing right now.

In a world and a context where the Republican party stayed for what it used stand for, Mike Pence would have gotten more support than Trump. If you have been reading about Politics for long enough then you would realize that this generation of Republican lawmakers are simply unrecognizable from what the generation of Bush was. Trump would have been ridiculed and excluded from the run back then (as he was in his previous presidential campaigns).

Mike represented part of the sanity Republicans from the past would have expected to see leading the polls, but the average Republican voter is so far gone into the Donal Trump rabbit hole of stolen elections and populisms, that they do not want sanity to rule the party anymore, it is a pretty sad situation for anyone who consider themselves to be conservative.

The support generated from opinion polls like this can never be guarantee of being able to see who is really superior when the election is held later but several parties have trusted or used opinion polls as way to determine or calculate the support that person has every candidate.
In several countries with presidential system of government with elections by popular vote opinion polls are only used as a form of competition in overthrowing each other.
I sure this is temporary and will change over time.

From what each candidate has had and conveyed during the campaign it is clear that only Trump and Biden are the strongest candidates and have the potential to have tight competition to win the election.
But if you take into account the enthusiasm of supporters in each camp as whole Trump is still in the lead by having the most supporters.