Topic: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? - page 13. (Read 6913 times)

3x odds on a sitting president mid term is quite attractive really.    Then contrast that to his largest likely opposition within the party which is Robert Kennedy JR., really high odds so people dont rate that prospect.   Can we vote on the vice president as thats surely possible by normal process basically I mean bad health etc.
   To bet for or against Biden to me is guessing on recession prospects, something big like job losses generally and that could knock him out of likely re-election.   If we think recession happens then sure bet against a sitting president but otherwise respect history and suspend your own opinions and bias is best tbh.

To me, it is a signal that bettors and users of casinos had a early impression about Trump chances, they may have assumed that even though Trump could easily secure his nomination for the Republican party, they did not actually see a reliable Presidential candidate to take over the Biden's Administration. It seems that now things have changed in the midset of those but betted for Biden and those who were not considering to do so for Trump.
Basically, many of those people wait for the polling to give them some clue on where they are supposed to put their money, in the case they wish to have bigger and better chances, however, I have come to the conclusion the American political landscape is going through an era where polling cannot be as trusted as people used to. After all, we have seen several times in a row how polls give Republicans an advantage over Democrats in the lastest local and midterm elections, fruitlessly to the dismay of Republicans.

So I do not know what to make out of this, bettors may feel this incoming election will be different or there has been some rumors on both candidates' campaign strategies I have not read about.

You are not mistaken. Trump's odds, in the sense that he has more chances to win from gamblers' point of view, have increased since Summer. He was behind Biden for many months, and now look at this:



The situation is almost identical on many sports betting sites:



Do I think Trump will win? No. But I can't ignore the reality.

What you call Dinos and Rinos are terms which are mostly used by members of the party in a despective way, since you seem to be pretty informed on American politics, I am sure you are aware of it.
I know it is a biased opinion, but from the leftist perspective are the Republicans who have moved further to the right (since the entry of Trump into politics) and they (leftists) assumed to have mostly stayed unmoved in the moderate left, as a consequence of it, the geometrical center of politics gets displaced to the right. At least that is the leftist theory of what it is going on.

Even though Trump talks about Communist and Marxist in the United States doing their plans to get rid of him and the Republican party, I still cannot think of an actual Marxist or Communist in a position of power within the USA. The closer they got is Bernie Sanders and I think he is rather a social democrat, instead a full blown communist.

Well.. it goes both ways. Democrats have become more liberal and tilted more to the left, while the Republicans have become more conservative and tilted more to the right and far-right. DINOs and RINOs are now almost extinct. Rare specimens exist though, such as Joe Manchin (Democrat senator for West Virginia, who is a DINO and Lisa Murkowski, the RINO Republican senator from Alaska). And it is not an unnatural change. Electorate has moved to opposite poles. Democrat electorate has become more leftwing, and Republican electorate has become more right-wing. And under such scenarios, we can't really expect the GOP to listen to the moderates. We saw what happened to Kevin McCarthy recently. 

Leaving poll numbers on one side and also the manipulation which the medie of both sides could be trying to push into the heads and minds of the American public. Is it my imagination or Trump's odds have actually increased since the end of this summer? I know he has always been under Biden's odds, but I have got the impression Trump's were lower before.
If that is indeed true, I would say it has something to do with the exit of the campaign of several Republican políticians and also the discomfort Biden may be provoking with his immigration policy and the handling of the middle east conflict.
Swing voters have start to consider to vote null or even vote for Trump (the latter is less likely though).
Still, the lastest Republican underperforming elections may guide me to bet in favor of Biden...

When you are gambling in a casino game those words do make sense, you can do whatever you want and that's obviously important because you need to have the freedom to do it, it doesn't matter if it's plinko or slots or dice or roulettte, or even something like football where you do need a bit of an knowledge but that's on an "unimportant" topic unless you have a career in it. However, if we are talking about something like politics, and betting on it, you are not just betting on any random game, you are betting on 4 years of a nations future and that's not an easy feat, sure the bet is equally easy you just click a few things but knowing or guessing the four years of a nation is a tough deal.

It means that in this case USA will not be the same nation after 4 years more from Trump or Biden, those are very two different personalities and they will do 100% different things for the nation and many things will change. This isn't important at a small sport level thing, this is huge, has years of consequences and what happens in USA usually matters to rest of the world economically too.

But gamblers did not react to the "worsening poll numbers" in any way



We saw those same numbers weeks ago. I think it means bettors are aware how misleading those numbers can be. You said there's a liberal campiagn ging on right now. Let's see how the nubers will change after that, like in a month, shall we?


I don't think it's that simple. You sound like other people don't have brains of their own. Maybe it used to be like this in the past, but now people are smart, they know parties are trying to manipulate them.

That's right, because when it comes to things in a casino, the Easiest way to win is obvious through the games, but knowing how to play, that is, playing intelligently , that's why when we're playing, we have to two options: win or lose, if we like to win we will always look for a way to do it, but knowing that the system is focused on the house advantage is Something that must be considered and not forgotten, it is like stepping on land, when we play We may be in heaven, but the reality is different, a casino, as I have said on many occasions, is a company, a Business and Every business is created to always have the option of winning, above the players, a player can never be above the casino.

In this case we are the ones who decide in the end what to do in a moment of decision where we could win or lose, make a decisive bet? how would it be ? It is not known that it is only the person's jealousy, so risk before greed? Maybe, if he is an experienced player, who is careful and knows what he is doing, he doesn't play out of greed, he plays for the emotion he feels when taking risks, it is something that gives him more adrenaline, that is what he is looking for, I think Things are like that when they are players of that style, but when they are novice players , both things are present, first of all, greed and risk second, but when we are thinking About what can actually be done in a casino, the options are They have a very high bar, that is why we must Always be aware of what we do.

Whether out of greed or risk, we must be very careful with our owner, we cannot be very focused because as I have said on many occasions, without money there is no party, and that is what we must see, there is no other way, always We must see things for what they are and in every casino what matters is the money, that it does not go away but rather Multiply it.

The situation with the nomination in both the Republican and Democrat party are actually quite different. In the case of Biden, he seems to have most if the support he can ever possibly get from his party and the politicians who are part of it. On the other hand, Trump does not have the complete support of the Republican party, rather he has managed to impose himself as a nominee through his brute force and the influence he still has over the average republican voter. In the end, winning elections does not have anything to do with getting along with your fellow members of the party, is about appealing to the voters, whoever manages to control the votes, has the lead of the party.

Also, I knew there were problems within the political system of the USA, but I was never aware it was so bad as you describe, like "being controlled by morons". It is something I would expect to hear from a banana republic.

Well, the truth is that in the US what is currently happening is like an Excess of Freedom for Young people, or rather they are Confusing it with debauchery, which seems to me that for everything there should be many Limits , despite everything the limits are very necessary, Even though the US is a financially stable country, or that is what they make it seem at a global level , things Should and need to have a little more control, the current Governments that have been in the US seem to me to be very liberal, they allow and give many things like being Very well and being normal for the times we are living in, I understand all that, but also in the political part I have seen a lot of dirty war, where those who are in power, I don't know if they are congressmen or people who may have bought, because they attack other Candidates , not American , but the truth is I Admire the ability that Donald Trump has to get away with the things that are accused of him so well.

I remember that one of the Problems was that Even his Lawyer betrayed him, so from my own experience in the country where I live , when many things like this happen, it is because the president will be the one who is attacked, because the Attack they give him is really strong , I couldn't think anything else, only that they are Waging a lot of war, if in Politics they went down the path that they are all more dedicated to Diplomacy and more dedicated to what it means to be in the good sense of the debtaes where each candidate choose according to what they can do because it is something that I would admire, in fact for me the USA had always been an Example country in how they had their politicians , but now I see pure desire for power, and a great desire to have Others always Cloistered there to be able to take them on a truck that is of violence, I no longer see the debtates as interesting , because they only fight among themselves, and they do not talk about how they can handle the economic problem , the Inflation that , although they make it up, is very Rampant.

The same thing goes for the Democratic party.  Joe Biden may be more well liked within that party than Trump is in his party (the Republicans), but there's still a lot of Americans who can't stand either President (myself included).  Because our politics are insanely corrupt and ran by morons, there looks to be no doubt these two are the choices once again. smh

As for voting, I just have no clue how this thing is going to go.  I thought Clinton was going to smoke Trump and bet on her, and where did that get me.

It's true, or I know, but there are people who have a wrong idea about this, because when it comes to politics, they believe that Presidents and government Policies are going to focus on reducing the crime that exists in a country, or things simlilares, it is not like that, and although they have everything to be able to generate the best of all the Security of the hands , we must look at other things that are more focused on the good, for example the proeblmande always being the economic one, inflation as high as there is, of how the FED is capable of no longer supporting the makeup that exists, then these are things that can manifest themselves, if in this order of Ideas we are going to think that this big country can handle everything and that Things work out as many of us believe, but that is no longer the case, politics in the USA is very similar to that of South America , it is actually very dirty, among the politicians themselves there is very bad anger, they wage war among themselves. , there is no fair game, I think that ideas are something that has Disappeared, for me the candidates from the USA only look for pioder.

They do not care about the common good of any of their inhabitants, only reaching power to be able to dominate, that is what I see, that is why in the US things are not like before, even though it is a country where it is seen that economy is very strong, and they are the maximum in their hegemony. The truth is that at any moment the Bubble that is your economy could burst again, I don't see that there is much confidence , as soon as you see what happens between the behavior of the USD vs Eur one can draw conclusions, and they are not good, I really don't I like what the dollar is doing so far, that's why I want to see the things that can be generated, now when we think that the USA has strong immigration policies, there are none , there is a strong problem especially in New York With this, how could one of those candidates fix that problem? without Deporting.

Yeah, I agree there is much hypocrisy and problems within the democrat party, it would be easier for the Republican party to win over the Democrat party if they did not choose Trump as their leader and current head of the party. If the Republican party remained as it used to be back in the 2000s or mid 2010, when their politics were about conservatism instead of the ideas of Trump, then the Democrat party would be in trouble, facing a more coherent and moderate republican party.

It is normal for there to be competition which may not feel very ethical to do, but in democracy it is normal for each other to say their bad things to be able to bring each other down, but there are also some supporters who are so fanatical that they make fuss because they don't accept such competition.
In every country, when there is general election or general election, it is normal for there to be opinion polls that knock each other out and some of each candidate team hold broadcasts aimed at exposing the bad qualities of other candidates.
But what the Biden team did really created controversy and recently there was a split in Biden base caused by pro-Palestinian demonstrators who came to the Democrat office full of anger and chaos.
In relation to crime in the US it will never have anything to do with elections or state leaders because crime occurs due to several other factors and those who can stop it are the authorities by giving warnings or firm action such as critical punishment.

Minorities want jobs and good economy. Fearmongering is not going to help. One area where the Biden administration has failed is to control the crime rate. Crime rates have gone up in inner city areas and this has forced businesses to move to the suburbs which are better guarded by the police. As a result, a lot of people have lost their jobs. Only section of the society who have remained loyal to the Democrat Party are wealthy white liberals, who live in gated communities in their colossal bungalows, away from the immigrant influx and crime.

I agree with you, pretty much. Whenever I watch some liberal media or new channel what they do to keep their voters stuck to the democrat party is to fearmonger about the possibility of Trump having a second term next year. They talk for much of their programs about the surge of white supremacy, the Trump trials and the trials of his former associates. I don't think there is something wrong about talking about those things, but they rarely talk on the legislation the Democrat party is going to take in order to talke those problems you mentioned, specially the crime surge in the United States, last night I saw a report on how criminals are targeting delivery trucks nations wide and mobs are flash-robbing stores.
At this point it would be refreshing to listen to Democrats plan to deal with all of that. If they don't, Trump will increase his chances, as he is not afraid of pushing against robbery.

Well yes, the news is Clearly very in favor of them , but I have Seen that many of the friends who are there complain about the high costs it has to simply make a minimarket, with 400USD you cannot buy a good market , to make a good market with everything for the month, according to them you need at least 800-1000USD, because it is something hard, inflation in the USA does exist, it's just that they have known how to make it up, many have made things very lateral and safe , that is , they are investing in safe assets like gold , in fact what many people in the USA do is buy things that are cheap and then wait for any type of event to sell them, because it is a way to protect themselves, although I am not very I am a supporter of this, I think that the US has always had inflation, and this could be the trigger for a civil war to happen, I hope it doesn't happen, it is something that can happen in such a large country, the printing of Banknotes is impressive.

Regarding the migrants, yes, you are absolutely right, in fact a sister-in-law went like that with her husband and children, through the imposing Darién (something that seems crazy to me) and she tells me that the influx is so great of work there is for people like this, who previously paid 20-22usd per hour, and in New York they are offering them 8-10usd per hour for any job, be it washing bathrooms, washing dishes, among other jobs that are of that style So this is a crisis , those who are most successful go to states where they pay more, but the limitation for many is the language, if they do not speak English well it is what can limit their access to work, the majority prefer staying in NY because Spanish is spoken a lot and they can defend themselves better, it is difficult for those who have given it, not all of them are bad people nor do they want to do harm, in some way the people who are there deserve to live with a better quality of life.

That's just sad in my opinion, the fact that now that they're out of the poverty line or even near the border that line, they suddenly can't care enough about the others that are still in that much, it's deplorable and you will see how they really are as a person because they're clearly only thinking for themselves if that's really the growing sentiment among these rags to riches people, I do hope that whomever they're going to support is going to lose and that they get to spend more on taxes, now I'm not from that country but if those welfare is still helping people that need them, I think that there's a need that policies that support them or improve them should happen and those politicians that supports them should be the one that gets the support.

During the last few weeks, the liberal mouthpiece of New York Times have gone ballistic and churned out half a dozen articles regarding the worsening poll numbers for Joe Biden. This article talks about his weakness with younger voters:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/upshot/poll-biden-young-voters.html

While these talk about Biden losing popularity among the non-white voters:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/elections/the-elections-big-twist-the-racial-gap-between-republicans-and-democrats-is-shrinking.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/15/upshot/democrats-biden-hispanic-black-voters.html

But rather than looking into the actual issues, they are still trying to look through the lens of propaganda and predefined beliefs. IMO, younger and non-white voters are upset with Biden on issues related to immigration and crime, while the Democrats are resorting to their tried and tested formula of scaremongering to stick the non-white votes with them.