Topic: Why are people cheering that ASICMINER will bring 800-1000TH online this year? - page 2. (Read 9200 times)

Oh, the unbelievable irony of unbelievable ironies! Thank you for making that statement. Thank you for making my day! 

The Total Hashrate at the moment, at least 141Thash/s, The document you mentioned, Is their hash rate,41Thash/s at least.

To increase the Hash rate. It would be difficult to do at the moment, Increasing 800Thash/s within a year? Unless they have ordered some miners to do. Otherwise may be too risky as the circuit size cannot be shrunken lower than 28nm format at a moment.

Authorities can move in anytime and your shares will really becomes Nuts. Ticking Time Bomb

The AM share price is going nuts. It seems that the only thing investors are concerned about is trying to afford more shares! 

are AM investors concern about their investments??

THIS.

People spits figures without even reading the relevant posts on beforehand.

ASICminer has been a perfect example of flawless management in a 100% underground Bitcoin operation... For the IPO investors it has been the best investment in the Bitcoin world up to date, hands off.

So slide 47 is where the figures are quoted from.  Anyone here read enough Chinese to tell us what it really says?

http://wk.baidu.com/view/ede0631876c66137ee06192f?pcf=2

Is it their hash rate or total network hash rate?

If they are going from 29TH/s a month ago, to 800-1,000TH/s as suggested by the OP, that's exponential growth, and exponential growth is seldom sustainable.  http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/chapter-3-exponential-growth

DHS or any enforcement agencies need a search warrant, they can't simply bust in and catch you. In China no search warrant require and can go after you anytime of the day or night.

That would require simple mathematics, basic business sense, and a pulse. Most people around here are only batting .333 on that list. 

Of course it is so obvious, they are doomed.  Wait why couldn't they just stop expanding?

Best possible scenario imho. I've got nothing against any ASIC manufacturer... but the concentration of hashpower in a nation where property rights are... marginal at best worries me... Then again, China is kicking the rest of the worlds ass on the whole 'following free market economics' thing. So I guess I'm not as worried as I would be if ASICMINER were located in the USA or EU.

I can just imagine that headline now... DHS seizes asicminer warehouse and kills bitcoin.

Based on the dividends per share, I suspect they are hoarding a great number of coins and will jump onto the next virtual coin bandwagon before Bitcoin collapses.

The greedier ASICMINER gets, the less profit they make on each coin, that's because their energy costs rise as fast as they add gear. At some point they wont be able to pay a dividend as all their revenue will be going into running the bloated ASIC farm, for roughly the same number of coins each week. Then there is a good chance they will have to close up shop, leaving a  lot of worthless shares, but also that means 1,000TH/s+ suddenly disappears from the BTC net hash rate, and confirmation times blow out until ridiculous, effecting everyone.

Epic! I love a thousand words via a picture. Two important ones...FRIED and CAT....

Only this is BBQ CAT. Lol

You're right.  Flipping inflated-price, fundamentally worthless things is the stuff of bubbles, not of Ponzi schemes.

Your comment is iconic of the fundamental problems with bitcoin, and with the mining hardware industry.  There is no bitcoin economy.  Sure, there's some gambling, some economic innovation, some daytrading, some flipping of promises or the rare and wonderful gadget, occasionally a chance to buy a pizza or something at some points in time, but, by and large, nothing. 

Real capital is not going to go into bitcoin with the current levels of volatility in real terms.  So bitcoin gets Sonny Vlesides, scammers, and a couple groups of young guys who had the right university-days contacts and the right juice in the right shops to get some chips made.  That's what ASICminer is; that's what Avalon is.  I'm not dissing them; they've done well, as entrepeneurs.  As businesses, though, they both suck.

The guys who are asking themselves if there is a business here will have the following as the first question: 

what if some day soon, because of Emperor's Clothes phenomenon, or because of the concentration, or because of the inability to do any meaningful mining in private any longer, a critical mass of people decide whatever they came to bitcoin for is gone, and a couple of entities are holding a third of the inventory?  What then?

Beyond the terms Ponzi, Pyramid, Scam, Fraud, and Bubbles, there's another term that's potentially relevant to bitcoin today: Musical Chairs.

I really do not see why you guys are complaining about someone upping their hash rate by a factor of 10x.

You got people on the forums buying up hundreds of Avalon chips and other group buys, probably raising their hash rate by a factor of 10 or more. Nobody seems to be complaining about that.

AM is not going to take over the network and kill their business in the process. They aren't stupid.

Hash rate is going to increase by at least a factor of 10. That's just technology progressing. Anybody that is not adding hash rate at the same rate is going to be left in the dust. End of story.

Full disclosure: my personal hash rate went up by a factor of 2 in the past month, and will continue to do so for the immediate future.

Why should I be surprised that a company with far larger resources is doing the same thing? I'm not.

I like how Asicminer is going business. I won't buy any of their hardware simply because the price is outside my comfort zone on ROI. They did good this generation. But there's a new generation right around the corner that will obsolete them unless they upgrade.

And when he makes the market 10x the size? You now earn 10% what you did, and you'll never, ever pay back the costs of buying hardware when you didn't manufacture it.

It is called price discovery.  Someone believes the price is too low, someone believes it is too high.  The trade occurs where the market will bear it.  If USB stick miners are overpriced the price will drop (IIRC it already has once).  No reason one of the people buying chips in bulk (~$7 ea IIRC) couldn't build competing single chip USB stick miners. If the price is too high then someone will to scoop up that easy profit.

It seems you don't believe or are afraid of free markets.  Nobody "needs" to buy an ASIC miner.  They do so because they believe it is in their best interest.  Now personally I believe a lot of potential miners are for lack of a better word, delusional and thus demand drives prices up.  Eventually reality will hit and it will drive prices down.  If nothing else as profits get harder to eek out I would expect to see a lot of used ASIC gear for sale at 50% to 80% off the purchase price.