Topic: Why Bitcoin will collapse in price. - page 2. (Read 24607 times)

These guys just cannot be saved. I have a similar friend and I couldn't explain him why Bitcoin has value. He would always say "It's only useful to get dollars" and "it has no intrinsic value". He can't see beyond that. I eventually gave up and said fuck it, but I hope he doesn't cry me about how he didn't buy now in 5 years.

Each individual have their own calculations, if you see years back when Bitcoins started, it has less value, down the line in a few years, it climbed to high steep which was never imagined by any financial geeks. Bitcoin has the real future, since it is secured, reliable and Transparency. Also it will have tremendous real value when we control the measures in the bitcoin mining flows.

Bitcoin is being accepted more and more across the globe, which means they have more people using it. I personally don't think it will drop like you said, but reading your post gave me 2nd thoughts. Thanks

No i don't think bitcoin will collapse , it have a bright future and within few years it will be used by many people !!!

I don't find any specific reason that Bitcoin will collapse in price in coming period of time. I believe it will be reaching to a new level in next 5 to 10 years. Mostly people are not aware about it yet but as their awareness level will go high the same will go with Bitcoin too

Of course you come here celebrating your "prediction". The question is, will you be here admitting defeat once BTC goes back up, or will you quietly disappear until another bubble burst cycle happens claiming to be a magician that predicts the future? duh.

You have invested in a pyramid and come up with some formulas??? Come on!! Open your eyes. This ship will sink. I said it when it was above 1000 dollars, and I will say it again at 200 dollars.

It occurred to me that there is a simple way to predict the price of bitcoin.  

Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where

V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);  
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).  

From that we get P = (V - U)/R.

Now you only need to predict V and U.  

Yes: In the beginning of a pyramid there are still plenty of new fools you can convince to buy from you your hot potato (i.e. your bitcoin).

Eventually however the pyramid cant be sustained anymore, as no new fools can be found to bail out the old ones.

This is what happened to bitcoin: It skyrocketet (with temporary corrections) and now has collapsed, burning a unprecedented number of people. Due to the extensive coverage of the rise and crash of bitcoin, and the significant number of people who now sit on losses, it is very unlikely that the pyramid can be inflated again.

This time looks like it is different.
The recovery certainly wasn't quick. 

i really hope it... because i need increasing of BTC .. i have only 5BTC  from 400USD/1 BTC

It has  collapsed many times, and it recovery quickly.

What does everyone consider a collapse in price. BTC hovered in the low 100's for half a year so maybe we are jumping the gun screaming collapse.

i think because a lot bad news at this begin of januari

I think jorge hit it right on the nail with:

"It would be important to understand why it rose to 32, perhaps more than why it dropped to 2.

Each bubble in bitcoin's history is can be explained as the opening of a new market -- either a new use, or a new community of users separated from previous markets by some barrier -- language, geography, profession, socioeconomic status, whatever.

Most bubbles had a fast rise, a crash, some oscillations, and then settled at a steady level substantially higher than the previou stady level.

The famous 2011 bubble, that started soon after 2011-04-01, at 0.5 $/BTC, began like the others; however, after the oscillations died out, instead fo settling to a steady state, it started to decay eponentially.  By 2011-11-09 is was down to 2 $/BTC; however, if a new bubble had not started at that time, it would probably have continued to drop until the pre-bubble level d 0.5 $/BTC.

The Nov/2013 buuble behaved in a similar fashion, but we have an explanation for it: it was created by the opening of the Mainland Chinese market, and it deflated during 2014 because the Chinese lost interest in bitcoin, since they could not use it for anything except gambling in the exchanges.  Now the last Chinese day-traders are dumping BTC to play in the Chinese stock market, which is booming.

So the question is: what was the "market" that created the 2011 bubble, and why did that market evaporate?"

I'd like to know the answer to the question.

high chance yes, it won't fall much farther, better to buy now those cheap coins

It would be important to understand why it rose to 32, perhaps more than why it dropped to 2.

Each bubble in bitcoin's history is can be explained as the opening of a new market -- either a new use, or a new community of users separated from previous markets by some barrier -- language, geography, profession, socioeconomic status, whatever.

Most bubbles had a fast rise, a crash, some oscillations, and then settled at a steady level substantially higher than the previou stady level.

The famous 2011 bubble, that started soon after 2011-04-01, at 0.5 $/BTC, began like the others; however, after the oscillations died out, instead fo settling to a steady state, it started to decay eponentially.  By 2011-11-09 is was down to 2 $/BTC; however, if a new bubble had not started at that time, it would probably have continued to drop until the pre-bubble level d 0.5 $/BTC.

The Nov/2013 buuble behaved in a similar fashion, but we have an explanation for it: it was created by the opening of the Mainland Chinese market, and it deflated during 2014 because the Chinese lost interest in bitcoin, since they could not use it for anything except gambling in the exchanges.  Now the last Chinese day-traders are dumping BTC to play in the Chinese stock market, which is booming.

So the question is: what was the "market" that created the 2011 bubble, and why did that market evaporate?

Is the collapse now?

So you are telling me because bitcoin price drop from 31$ to two, it can't recover?

Wait a moment... I saw this before.

It lasted a year.

I dont want to say I told you so, but the price has indeed collapsed since I started this thread at the highs in December 2013.

However it is not over yet. It will go down to single digits and lower (eventually zero is a fair valuation).

If you want a summary of my reasoning read the my first post and this one:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046