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Topic: Why Bitcoin will collapse in price. - page 5. (Read 24617 times)

legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 16, 2013, 03:35:02 PM
Do you really hope that they don't know that you possess some metal? A few guys here insist that even bitcoin is not anonymous whatever (and what they say might actually be so, I just dunno), then why do you think the fact that you buried your gold in the backyard of your home will somehow help you? They won't come after gold, they will come after you!

Lol at you trying to argue that gold stored that can be stored outside of the country at unknown locations is less anonymous than the totally transparent bitcoin.

It doesn't matter where it is stored, you will show that place yourself or go to jail if you persist (or just happen to forget where you squirreled away your stash). In any case you won't be able to sell it without a chance of being caught for illegal activity

And if it is stored outside of the country, then it is no more physical than gold certificates or whatever...
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 03:33:15 PM

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-is-not-scarce-366523



There are only 21 million coins on the longest cryptographic blockchain. The blockchain upon which they rest is a key characteristic which constrains their abundance. This is like claiming gold is not scare because it is just an element, and look how much of these other elements we have sitting around!

Try to read the links.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
December 16, 2013, 03:31:09 PM

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-is-not-scarce-366523



There are only 21 million coins on the longest cryptographic blockchain. The blockchain upon which they rest is a key characteristic which constrains their abundance. This is like claiming gold is not scare because it is just an element, and look how much of these other elements we have sitting around!
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 03:29:57 PM
So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

Well I have stored my metals at a secure place nobody knows about.

Also: I dont know why you call me a gold bug. I just like real money and distrust fiat. I also have investments in asia stocks.

Do you really hope that they don't know that you possess some metal? A few guys here insist that even bitcoin is not anonymous whatever (and what they say might actually be so, I just dunno), then why do you think the fact that you buried your gold in the backyard of your home will somehow help you? They won't come after gold, they will come after you!


Lol at you trying to argue that gold that can be stored outside of the country at unknown locations is less anonymous than the totally transparent bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 16, 2013, 03:26:08 PM
So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

Well I have stored my metals at a secure place nobody knows about.

Also: I dont know why you call me a gold bug. I just like real money and distrust fiat. I also have investments in asia stocks.

Do you really hope that they don't know that you possess some metal? A few guys here insist that even bitcoin is not anonymous whatever (and what they say might actually be so, I just dunno), then why do you think the fact that you buried your gold in the backyard of your home will somehow help you? They won't come after gold, they will come after you!

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 03:21:37 PM

You see what you are looking for. What would adoption look like to you? I see an increasing number of people around the world using bitcoins for an increasing number of things.

Well, I could turn it around and say: You see what you are looking for. As I said, I see it as a speculative mania. I have nothing more to add.

What would money look like to you? I traded something for bitcoins, after some time I traded those bitcoins for something I wanted. That looks like it is functioning as money.

Well, just because some small number of people did what you refer to, doesnt mean its real money. I have adressed already, why I feel bitcoin is not real money (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046).

What would value look like to you? Right now I check my balance and I see I have X bitcoins. I can choose to hold those X bitcoins or trade them for Y. The person selling Y seems to agree with me that those X bitcoins have a value of Y.

Just because somebody agrees with you that something has value, doesnt mean it actually has value. Its like saying: It has a price today, so why does it not have value. Enron also had a price once.


I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-is-not-scarce-366523

member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 03:11:33 PM

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined the value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

Well I have stored my metals at a secure place nobody knows about.

Also: I dont know why you call me a gold bug. I just like real money and distrust fiat. I also have investments in asia stocks.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
December 16, 2013, 03:08:57 PM

Yes. At the moment I dont see any facts that disprove my opinion. I only see a speculative mania (that might continue for a while, who knows).

If bitcoin does become what you hope it will, I will have to correct my theory. However I am as strongly convinced that  bitcoins are (worthless)tokens not money as you are that bitcoins are money not tokens.  

To summarize:  Where you see adoption I see a speculative mania.
                         Where you see money I see worthless tokens.
                         Where you see value I see high prices (and no value).
                         Where you see scarcity I see abundance.
                    

You see what you are looking for. What would adoption look like to you? I see an increasing number of people around the world using bitcoins for an increasing number of things.

What would money look like to you? I traded something for bitcoins, after some time I traded those bitcoins for something I wanted. That looks like it is functioning as money.

What would value look like to you? Right now I check my balance and I see I have X bitcoins. I can choose to hold those X bitcoins or trade them for Y. The person selling Y seems to agree with me that those X bitcoins have a value of Y.

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 16, 2013, 03:04:28 PM

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined the value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 02:59:42 PM
Yes Bitcoin was a great  (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined underlying value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

I dont care if you buy the metals, as I think that nobody can pump anything over the long term. Either I am right or wrong. So if you dont want to buy precious metals but bitcoin I dont care, as I can buy more metal at a cheaper price.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
December 16, 2013, 02:58:18 PM
You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

Yes Bitcoin was a great  (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as having real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce. It was a perfect bubble right then that you preach against now. And this year it fell even below $18 per ounce...

How come, porc?

Don't forget that those prices are quoted in the inflating currency of USD, so the loss of purchasing power is even greater than what is reflected in the price of these metals.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 16, 2013, 02:56:57 PM
Yes Bitcoin was a great  (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 02:50:01 PM
You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

Yes Bitcoin was a great  (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 16, 2013, 02:49:22 PM
You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

Yes Bitcoin was a great  (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as having real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce. It was a perfect bubble right then that you preach against now. And this year it fell even below $18 per ounce...

How come, porc?
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 02:44:14 PM
These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.

You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

How many people before this year were saying we would never reach $100 for a sustained period? Yet we did, now if you offered to buy a bitcoin for $100 people would laugh at you.

You keep saying that "Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont[sic] fullfill[sic] the requirments[sic] of money.", maybe your requirements for money are wrong? In the hard sciences (chemistry, physics, etc), if we observe facts which do not match our theory then we change our theory, we do not throw out empirical observations.

Yes. At the moment I dont see any facts that disprove my opinion. I only see a speculative mania (that might continue for a while, who knows).

If bitcoin does become what you hope it will, I will have to correct my theory. However I am as strongly convinced that  bitcoins are (worthless)tokens not money as you are that bitcoins are money not tokens.  

To summarize: Where you see adoption I see a speculative mania.
                         Where you see money I see worthless tokens.
                         Where you see value I see high prices (and no value).
                         Where you see scarcity I see abundance.

                    
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 02:42:11 PM
These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.


You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

Yes Bitcoin was a great  (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
December 16, 2013, 02:39:57 PM
These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.

You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

How many people before this year were saying we would never reach $100 for a sustained period? Yet we did, now if you offered to buy a bitcoin for $100 people would laugh at you.

You keep saying that "Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont[sic] fullfill[sic] the requirments[sic] of money.", maybe your requirements for money are wrong? In the hard sciences (chemistry, physics, etc), if we observe facts which do not match our theory then we change our theory, we do not throw out empirical observations.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 16, 2013, 02:38:32 PM
These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.


You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
December 16, 2013, 02:22:14 PM
These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.

You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046


full member
Activity: 156
Merit: 100
December 16, 2013, 02:16:27 PM
These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.
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