Topic: Why Bitcoin will collapse in price. - page 5. (Read 24631 times)

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:49:22 PM

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined the value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day ~~to confiscate~~ to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

Well I have stored my metals at a secure place nobody knows about.

Also: I dont know why you call me a gold bug. I just like real money and distrust fiat. I also have investments in asia stocks.

Peter Lambert

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Quote from: porc on December 16, 2013, 02:44:14 PM

Yes. At the moment I dont see any facts that disprove my opinion. I only see a speculative mania (that might continue for a while, who knows).

If bitcoin does become what you hope it will, I will have to correct my theory. However I am as strongly convinced that bitcoins are (worthless)tokens not money as you are that bitcoins are money not tokens.

To summarize: Where you see adoption I see a speculative mania.
   Where you see money I see worthless tokens.
   Where you see value I see high prices (and no value).
Where you see scarcity I see abundance.

You see what you are looking for. What would adoption look like to you? I see an increasing number of people around the world using bitcoins for an increasing number of things.

What would money look like to you? I traded something for bitcoins, after some time I traded those bitcoins for something I wanted. That looks like it is functioning as money.

What would value look like to you? Right now I check my balance and I see I have X bitcoins. I can choose to hold those X bitcoins or trade them for Y. The person selling Y seems to agree with me that those X bitcoins have a value of Y.

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

deisik

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Quote from: porc on December 16, 2013, 02:59:42 PM

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:56:57 PM

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:49:22 PM

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined the value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day ~~to confiscate~~ to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

porc

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Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:56:57 PM

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:49:22 PM

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:49:22 PM

Yes Bitcoin was a great (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined underlying value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

I dont care if you buy the metals, as I think that nobody can pump anything over the long term. Either I am right or wrong. So if you dont want to buy precious metals but bitcoin I dont care, as I can buy more metal at a cheaper price.

Peter Lambert

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Activity: 756

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:38:32 PM

You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

Yes Bitcoin was a great (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as having real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce. It was a perfect bubble right then that you preach against now. And this year it fell even below $18 per ounce...

How come, porc?

Don't forget that those prices are quoted in the inflating currency of USD, so the loss of purchasing power is even greater than what is reflected in the price of these metals.

deisik

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Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:49:22 PM

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:49:22 PM

Yes Bitcoin was a great (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

porc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:38:32 PM

You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

Yes Bitcoin was a great (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

deisik

legendary

Activity: 3514

Merit: 1280

English ⬄ Russian Translation Services

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:38:32 PM

You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

Yes Bitcoin was a great (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as having real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce. It was a perfect bubble right then that you preach against now. And this year it fell even below $18 per ounce...

How come, porc?

porc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: Peter Lambert on December 16, 2013, 02:39:57 PM

Quote from: diedicar on December 16, 2013, 02:16:27 PM

Quote from: deisik on December 16, 2013, 02:38:32 PM

These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.

You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

How many people before this year were saying we would never reach $100 for a sustained period? Yet we did, now if you offered to buy a bitcoin for $100 people would laugh at you.

You keep saying that "Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont[sic] fullfill[sic] the requirments[sic] of money.", maybe your requirements for money are wrong? In the hard sciences (chemistry, physics, etc), if we observe facts which do not match our theory then we change our theory, we do not throw out empirical observations.

Yes. At the moment I dont see any facts that disprove my opinion. I only see a speculative mania (that might continue for a while, who knows).

If bitcoin does become what you hope it will, I will have to correct my theory. However I am as strongly convinced that bitcoins are (worthless)tokens not money as you are that bitcoins are money not tokens.

To summarize: Where you see adoption I see a speculative mania.
   Where you see money I see worthless tokens.
   Where you see value I see high prices (and no value).
Where you see scarcity I see abundance.

porc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: diedicar on December 16, 2013, 02:16:27 PM

These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.

You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

Yes Bitcoin was a great (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: diedicar on December 16, 2013, 02:16:27 PM

These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.

You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

How many people before this year were saying we would never reach $100 for a sustained period? Yet we did, now if you offered to buy a bitcoin for $100 people would laugh at you.

You keep saying that "Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont[sic] fullfill[sic] the requirments[sic] of money.", maybe your requirements for money are wrong? In the hard sciences (chemistry, physics, etc), if we observe facts which do not match our theory then we change our theory, we do not throw out empirical observations.

deisik

legendary

Activity: 3514

Merit: 1280

English ⬄ Russian Translation Services

Quote from: diedicar on December 16, 2013, 02:16:27 PM

Quote from: diedicar on December 16, 2013, 02:16:27 PM

These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.

You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

You could earn real money, porc. Will gold ever give you such an opportunity to get rich? If you knew in advance that bitcoin price would skyrocket (bubble or no bubble), would you then take this chance or rather continue to sling mud at bitcoin here?

porc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

These "low transaction costs" were a joke from the beginning, as nobody wants to hold onto bitcoins (tokens masquerading as money).

The spread (buying and selling bitcoins for dollars) and high volatility result in high! transaction costs guys.

I explained this in the OP already. And dont assume that the volatility will stop: Artificial agreements to trade useless tokens that nobody wants, for goods are always volatile (I have adressed this already). Its in the nature of this artificial agreement. Also, most of the people buying bitcoins are speculators, buying because they think they will get rich.

volatility depends on market participation. With 400 billions market cap we'll have a foreign currency like volatility. For sure.

You wont reach this market cap (at least not for a sustained period of time, I could only imagine a blow off bubble top). Worthless tokens will never become money, as they dont fullfill the requirments of money. I have adressed this already:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3926046

diedicar

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Merit: 100