I want to end my contribution to this thread with this post
That's the point where I stopped reading.
Topic: Why Bitcoin will collapse in price. - page 8. (Read 24607 times)
That's the point where I stopped reading.
I want to end my contribution to this thread with this post (that I have posted in my other threads already, but also sums up the last pages of this thread, ,the first pages being intervention and regulation by government):
Remember: Intrinsic value is one of the essential properties of money, that allows it to fulfill its functions. Without intrinsic value, gold could not fulfill its monetary role. You want to seperate golds intrinsic value from its monetary value, however that is impossible, as without intrinsic value gold has NO monetary value. The reason you insist on seperating these two aspects of gold, is because you want to believe that bitcoin can function as money despite its lack of intrinsic value.
Now lets look at the functions of money, in order to appreciate, why it HAS to have intrinsic value.
1) Store of value.
To act as a store of value, these forms must be able to be saved and retrieved at a later time, and be predictably useful when retrieved. WIKI
Now what would happen, if in future nobody would accept my gold as payment for goods and services. Well, I could make jewelry out of it and wear that jewelry or I could decorate my house with it.
What happens when nobody accepts my BTCs? Well, I could do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING with my BTCs in this case. So already we see, that bitcoin actually has enormous counterparty risk, as it is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. If nobody wants my BTCs I am left with ABSOLUTELY NOTHING (i.e. bitcoin).
Now obviously I want to have a high degree of certainty, that somebody will want to exchange my store of value with other valuable things, as otherwise I would have an excess of one resource, that I would be stuck with.
What is golds guarantee in this regard? Well, it says: I am beautiful, people have loved my look since dawn of man, and have thus always been willing to accept me as payment for other valuable goods and services. Thats REAL backing.
What is BTC guarantee in this regard? Well it says: I am worth nothing, but people have agreed to exchange me for something, because they want to save transaction costs, and because they like exchanging me peer to peer (no third party or bank). Now without reading futher how convincing does that sound to you (pretend like you have never heard of BTC, or that BTC has collapsed in price)? Lets continue: In future people might not accept nothing for something. In future they might switch to a different coin, that is technologically superior (thus my wealth is stored in myspace and suddenly facebook comes along) or more popular for other reasons (altcoin inflation). In future the transaction costs might explode due to prohibitive regulation, so that the artificial agreement to exchange something for nothing collapses. In future, maybe people will prefer real backing over backed by nothing, especially if real backing can be transferred electronically (digital gold). In future people might think that it was crazy to accept nothing as payment, just to safe on transaction costs. In future there might be reputable trustees, and people might regain trust with third parties. In future maybe people decide that instant payment is not that important to them, as money is fungible. In future people might realize that bitcoin is not anonymous and that it is not internet or gold 2.0. Bitcoin might stay highly volatile as the believe in an artificial agreement (with huge counterpary risk) is extremly volatile.
Now from my perspective the situation is even worse: Right now people are ONLY accepting nothing for something, because they strongly believe that nothing will go up in price (after all it has been going up in price in the past, so it must be true for the future Wink). Eventually some early adopter will want to cash out, and if there is nobody there to take his position, the price will fall through the floor.
So I believe, that bitcoin because it does not have value, cant be relied upon as a store of value. It is entirely dependent on the counterparty honoring an pseudo agreement. So bitcoin actually has enormous counterparty risk. Gold is a great store of value, as people will always accept it because it is beautiful. It is burnt into our brain. It has no counterparty risk, because the counterparty cant help but love and accept it (like with food and water).
Thus intrinsic value is ESSENTIAL for one of moneys core functions: store of value. Money value cant be seperated from intrinsic value, as it is DEPENDENT on it.
2) Medium of exchange
Same arguments apply. Right now people exchange something for nothing, due to an artificial pseudo agreement (transaction costs, peer to peer if you ask bitcoiners). I believe its even worse: Right now people ONLY accept it because it is going up in price. As soon as it crashes, people will stop accepting it, as it is irrational to agree to exchange something of utility for something of no utility in order to save transaction costs.
Remember: Intrinsic value is one of the essential properties of money, that allows it to fulfill its functions. Without intrinsic value, gold could not fulfill its monetary role. You want to seperate golds intrinsic value from its monetary value, however that is impossible, as without intrinsic value gold has NO monetary value. The reason you insist on seperating these two aspects of gold, is because you want to believe that bitcoin can function as money despite its lack of intrinsic value.
Now lets look at the functions of money, in order to appreciate, why it HAS to have intrinsic value.
1) Store of value.
To act as a store of value, these forms must be able to be saved and retrieved at a later time, and be predictably useful when retrieved. WIKI
Now what would happen, if in future nobody would accept my gold as payment for goods and services. Well, I could make jewelry out of it and wear that jewelry or I could decorate my house with it.
What happens when nobody accepts my BTCs? Well, I could do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING with my BTCs in this case. So already we see, that bitcoin actually has enormous counterparty risk, as it is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. If nobody wants my BTCs I am left with ABSOLUTELY NOTHING (i.e. bitcoin).
Now obviously I want to have a high degree of certainty, that somebody will want to exchange my store of value with other valuable things, as otherwise I would have an excess of one resource, that I would be stuck with.
What is golds guarantee in this regard? Well, it says: I am beautiful, people have loved my look since dawn of man, and have thus always been willing to accept me as payment for other valuable goods and services. Thats REAL backing.
What is BTC guarantee in this regard? Well it says: I am worth nothing, but people have agreed to exchange me for something, because they want to save transaction costs, and because they like exchanging me peer to peer (no third party or bank). Now without reading futher how convincing does that sound to you (pretend like you have never heard of BTC, or that BTC has collapsed in price)? Lets continue: In future people might not accept nothing for something. In future they might switch to a different coin, that is technologically superior (thus my wealth is stored in myspace and suddenly facebook comes along) or more popular for other reasons (altcoin inflation). In future the transaction costs might explode due to prohibitive regulation, so that the artificial agreement to exchange something for nothing collapses. In future, maybe people will prefer real backing over backed by nothing, especially if real backing can be transferred electronically (digital gold). In future people might think that it was crazy to accept nothing as payment, just to safe on transaction costs. In future there might be reputable trustees, and people might regain trust with third parties. In future maybe people decide that instant payment is not that important to them, as money is fungible. In future people might realize that bitcoin is not anonymous and that it is not internet or gold 2.0. Bitcoin might stay highly volatile as the believe in an artificial agreement (with huge counterpary risk) is extremly volatile.
Now from my perspective the situation is even worse: Right now people are ONLY accepting nothing for something, because they strongly believe that nothing will go up in price (after all it has been going up in price in the past, so it must be true for the future Wink). Eventually some early adopter will want to cash out, and if there is nobody there to take his position, the price will fall through the floor.
So I believe, that bitcoin because it does not have value, cant be relied upon as a store of value. It is entirely dependent on the counterparty honoring an pseudo agreement. So bitcoin actually has enormous counterparty risk. Gold is a great store of value, as people will always accept it because it is beautiful. It is burnt into our brain. It has no counterparty risk, because the counterparty cant help but love and accept it (like with food and water).
Thus intrinsic value is ESSENTIAL for one of moneys core functions: store of value. Money value cant be seperated from intrinsic value, as it is DEPENDENT on it.
2) Medium of exchange
Same arguments apply. Right now people exchange something for nothing, due to an artificial pseudo agreement (transaction costs, peer to peer if you ask bitcoiners). I believe its even worse: Right now people ONLY accept it because it is going up in price. As soon as it crashes, people will stop accepting it, as it is irrational to agree to exchange something of utility for something of no utility in order to save transaction costs.
bitcoin is a shining thing.
Let's try to understand why people like shining objects. I think is radically a form of comunication: jewels like wampum shells, are worn so you can see it from far. If you have a commodity which is visible from far an so is possible to desire it for somebody who looks, you'are just advertising for it. Maybe your advertising works becaus you are a powerful, violent king, but maybe advertising needs no testimonial. If you adveritse for a commlodity, this commodity gets medium of exchange value. Bitcoin is an internet based viral advertising campaign for a commodity, so it's a very shining, visible from far object. That's why (given the two other proprieties of rareness and indestructibility ) it's a good store of value.
Let's try to understand why people like shining objects. I think is radically a form of comunication: jewels like wampum shells, are worn so you can see it from far. If you have a commodity which is visible from far an so is possible to desire it for somebody who looks, you'are just advertising for it. Maybe your advertising works becaus you are a powerful, violent king, but maybe advertising needs no testimonial. If you adveritse for a commlodity, this commodity gets medium of exchange value. Bitcoin is an internet based viral advertising campaign for a commodity, so it's a very shining, visible from far object. That's why (given the two other proprieties of rareness and indestructibility ) it's a good store of value.
I wouldn't actually call bitcoin is a shining thing. On the contrary, it allows you to hide your money and your identity (though your mileage may vary) from some prying eyes and ears...
"Money loves silence, and big money loves deathly silence"
bitcoin is a shining thing.
Let's try to understand why people like shining objects. I think is radically a form of comunication: jewels like wampum shells, are worn so you can see it from far. If you have a commodity which is visible from far an so is possible to desire it for somebody who looks, you'are just advertising for it. Maybe your advertising works becaus you are a powerful, violent king, but maybe advertising needs no testimonial. If you adveritse for a commlodity, this commodity gets medium of exchange value. Bitcoin is an internet based viral advertising campaign for a commodity, so it's a very shining, visible from far object. That's why (given the two other proprieties of rareness and indestructibility ) it's a good store of value.
Let's try to understand why people like shining objects. I think is radically a form of comunication: jewels like wampum shells, are worn so you can see it from far. If you have a commodity which is visible from far an so is possible to desire it for somebody who looks, you'are just advertising for it. Maybe your advertising works becaus you are a powerful, violent king, but maybe advertising needs no testimonial. If you adveritse for a commlodity, this commodity gets medium of exchange value. Bitcoin is an internet based viral advertising campaign for a commodity, so it's a very shining, visible from far object. That's why (given the two other proprieties of rareness and indestructibility ) it's a good store of value.
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You totally failed to see the real ENDORSEMENT that stands behind gold: REALITY! Reality that humans like shinny things thus will give you something they value for shinny things
Sorry porc, that's not the "real" endorsment that stands behind gold at all.
At any rate, it doesn't work in modern trading environments because it's a hunk of useless metal that can't travel through wires.
It looks to me like you're trying to convince yourself that BTC has no "value" and not doing a very good job of it. It constantly amazes me how people can keep banging their head off the ***it has no value, it's all an illusion*** wall while year after year markets continue to confound this appraisal.
Be advised that BTC is now trading for around $1000 PER Bitcoin. If you think that's "nothing", be my guest but the market is not conforming to the porc dictionary of value-based commodities. Maybe it'll drop to zero one day and then you'll be vindicated but don't hold your breath or you'll be doing a lot of typing on forums like this one.
Maybe "getting a life" might be a better option in the meantime.
Right.
Massive FAIL
Massive FAIL
"monopoly money" (fiat), I mean worthless piece of paper and number in computer, printed at will around the world..
This shit has to go, and will colapse by itself by hyperinflation and a lot of suffering for humans of the planet.
The mathematic behind Fiat is doomed to fail, inflation and bankrupcy are build into this unsustainable system.
After the historic world-fiat colapse to come, peoples will be more interrested in a much much better mean of exchange, wich have better matematic principle.
Bitcoin will not worth fiat anymore, they will worth buying power.
I bet fiat colapse will happen before bitcoin collapse, so there shoul not be any major Bitcoin collapse !
This shit has to go, and will colapse by itself by hyperinflation and a lot of suffering for humans of the planet.
The mathematic behind Fiat is doomed to fail, inflation and bankrupcy are build into this unsustainable system.
After the historic world-fiat colapse to come, peoples will be more interrested in a much much better mean of exchange, wich have better matematic principle.
Bitcoin will not worth fiat anymore, they will worth buying power.
I bet fiat colapse will happen before bitcoin collapse, so there shoul not be any major Bitcoin collapse !
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I get the impression that it comes down to politics. Does a government control its central bank or vice versa? If you believe the first part, you can hope that your elected officials will support bitcoin because all of the good things *they* say about it. If you believe vice versa, the current president whose real boss is the Federal Reserve will see bitcoin as a problem to mitigate.
The technology behind cryptocurrencies and it's value as a financial tool to society has nothing to do with politics, tulips, its market price or any other of these arbitrary and ill-defined criteria constantly being trawled up in these debates.
In particular the comparison with tulips and constant obsession with it's market price is a total distraction from the technical innovation which cryptocurrencies bring to modern finance which is clear and unambigious.
That is that they facilitate direct asset transfers between peers *without the need for a counterparty*.
The only "tool" that society has had up till now which can do this is Gold. It's not a question of value and whether or not Bitcoin / Gold etc have *value*. Its a question of *function*. Monetary function.
For example, I cannot just "email" you electronically $1000. I need to go to a bank and ask them to do it. Even when the bank does it, they are not actually "transferring" anything of value - they are just changing a number in one account and incrementing it in another. The number that ends up in the receivers account only has "value" because of the counterparty endorsement it has. It has no intrinsic value of its own - if it was just a number I typed into a spreadsheet it would have no market value.
Gold on the other hand, has a market value whether it's sitting in a bank vault or buried in a mountain. It does not require counterparty endorsment - only market endorsement because it is a non-counterfeitible generic form of money.
Bitcoin is likeways independent of counterparty endorsement. I *can* email you (or transfer to your "wallet") $1000 in Bitcoin without requiring a counterparty. It therefore performs a monetary function - the same one that gold does - and that is why it has market value, the same as gold did. Porc's nonsense about shiny metals and attractiveness are not the reason Gold can function as a store of value. The reason for that is that is has the right properties that enable it to perform a certain required function in a non-barter economy.
An electronic trading platform on the scale of the internet has a need for a form of money that can perform the same function that gold did in the pre-electronic era. Public-Private key cryptology is the obvious basis for such a technology and hence cryptocurrencies were born.
Again, cryptocurrency's viability has nothing to do with their market "value" - it has to do with their technical function. Markets later decide what that function is worth to the economy. Please drop all this nonsense about price, tulips, crashes and shininess of metals - the macro economic impact of cryptocurrencies on the future of finance goes way beyond any of that and will likely be felt for centuries.
I can assure you, the clocks will not be turning back now that this stuff has been invented.
Transferring something does not give it value.
I get the impression that it comes down to politics. Does a government control its central bank or vice versa? If you believe the first part, you can hope that your elected officials will support bitcoin because all of the good things *they* say about it. If you believe vice versa, the current president whose real boss is the Federal Reserve will see bitcoin as a problem to mitigate.
I wish I could disagree with you (proc) with confidence. If you want to convince proc, you need to convince him on this point. I, for one, am not prepared to make a convincing argument against this premise. Or we just call each other crazy and solve nothing.
The hallmark of Pyramid. Get more people involved, pass it (nothing) on to the next shmuck. 99.99% of btc owners are in it strictly to make a quick profit. The opposite of how money originated.
This could drag out for awhile, though. The tulip craze lasted nearly a decade, the greatest scam of all time Social Security for 70+. I own tulipcoins myself (quite bullish short term lol), any suckers left ? Step on up..
That was a single event. It crashed only once. That's a difference to Gold 2.0.
Imagine if you went to your bank and asked for stock advice.
Bank: Buy Stock Pyramid
You: why?
Bank: Well it will go up in price and you can dump it on the next guy.
You: Does Stock Pyramid have value?
Bank: No. Absolutely no value. But you can dump it on the next guy at a higher price.
Would that be convincing to you?
Apparently since you are buying bitcoin.
Bank: Buy Stock Pyramid
You: why?
Bank: Well it will go up in price and you can dump it on the next guy.
You: Does Stock Pyramid have value?
Bank: No. Absolutely no value. But you can dump it on the next guy at a higher price.
Would that be convincing to you?
Apparently since you are buying bitcoin.
The hallmark of Pyramid. Get more people involved, pass it (nothing) on to the next shmuck. 99.99% of btc owners are in it strictly to make a quick profit. The opposite of how money originated.
This could drag out for awhile, though. The tulip craze lasted nearly a decade, the greatest scam of all time Social Security for 70+. I own tulipcoins myself (quite bullish short term lol), any suckers left ? Step on up..
Transferring something does not give it value.
Dump, transfer, barter, donate, destroy, store ...
Transferring it out of Argentina/Cyprus does give it value.
Are you blind?
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I have addressed this already. Bitcoin cant be a store of value as it has not value. Bitcoin cant be a media of exchange, as it has no value.
I think you mean it doesn't have value "for you".
That's not the same thing as it having not value "for markets"
You appear to have started this thread from a sense of frustrated cognitive dissonance - i.e. you can't understand why something that you personally can't see any value in can be traded for so much money. Although your sense of confusion has been amply induldged on here, it isn't really our problem.
I suggest you buy at least 1 bitcoin right now as insurance. That way you won't have to be standing with your pants around your ankles in 12 months time when the price is at $10,000 ranting about why it has "no value"
Money needs to have certain properties and one of them is that it needs to have value in and of itself.
Golds inherent value: its great to look at and we like to touch it. humans loved the look of this metal since dawn of man.
That's the opposite of inherent and intrinsic. It is external usage. Are you blind?
Quote
What can I do with Bitcoin except dumping it on the next guy?
Dump, transfer, barter, donate, destroy, store ...
Are you blind?
Quote
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
ANYTHING
Quote
Now what is frustrating to me, is the delusion/ crowd think fellow libertarians are falling in to. This is a pyramid and lots of people will get hurt.
It seems that you are hurted by the fact that you missed the train. Give up. Nobody will believe your fairytales.
What can I do with Bitcoin EXCEPT DUMPING IT ON THE NEXT GUY?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
Fairytale of bitcoiners: People will in future (even though this has never happened in history over a prolonged period of time) EXCHANGE SOMETHING FOR NOTHING.
Well if you say so. You wont be dumping your NOTHING on me thats for sure.
Dump, transfer, barter, donate, destroy, store ...
Are you blind?
Transferring something does not give it value.
Quote
I have addressed this already. Bitcoin cant be a store of value as it has not value. Bitcoin cant be a media of exchange, as it has no value.
I think you mean it doesn't have value "for you".
That's not the same thing as it having not value "for markets"
You appear to have started this thread from a sense of frustrated cognitive dissonance - i.e. you can't understand why something that you personally can't see any value in can be traded for so much money. Although your sense of confusion has been amply induldged on here, it isn't really our problem.
I suggest you buy at least 1 bitcoin right now as insurance. That way you won't have to be standing with your pants around your ankles in 12 months time when the price is at $10,000 ranting about why it has "no value"
Money needs to have certain properties and one of them is that it needs to have value in and of itself.
Golds inherent value: its great to look at and we like to touch it. humans loved the look of this metal since dawn of man.
That's the opposite of inherent and intrinsic. It is external usage. Are you blind?
Quote
What can I do with Bitcoin except dumping it on the next guy?
Dump, transfer, barter, donate, destroy, store ...
Are you blind?
Quote
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
ANYTHING
Quote
Now what is frustrating to me, is the delusion/ crowd think fellow libertarians are falling in to. This is a pyramid and lots of people will get hurt.
It seems that you are hurted by the fact that you missed the train. Give up. Nobody will believe your fairytales.
What can I do with Bitcoin EXCEPT DUMPING IT ON THE NEXT GUY?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
Fairytale of bitcoiners: People will in future (even though this has never happened in history over a prolonged period of time) EXCHANGE SOMETHING FOR NOTHING.
Well if you say so. You wont be dumping your NOTHING on me thats for sure.
Dump, transfer, barter, donate, destroy, store ...
Are you blind?
Imagine if you went to your bank and asked for stock advice.
Bank: Buy Stock Pyramid
You: why?
Bank: Well it will go up in price and you can dump it on the next guy.
You: Does Stock Pyramid have value?
Bank: No. Absolutely no value. But you can dump it on the next guy at a higher price.
Would that be convincing to you?
Apparently since you are buying bitcoin.
Bank: Buy Stock Pyramid
You: why?
Bank: Well it will go up in price and you can dump it on the next guy.
You: Does Stock Pyramid have value?
Bank: No. Absolutely no value. But you can dump it on the next guy at a higher price.
Would that be convincing to you?
Apparently since you are buying bitcoin.
Hey, people here at first tried to explain you in serious how matters stand in reality, now they are just making fun of you. If you don't catch up, they will next ignore you...
Quote
I have addressed this already. Bitcoin cant be a store of value as it has not value. Bitcoin cant be a media of exchange, as it has no value.
I think you mean it doesn't have value "for you".
That's not the same thing as it having not value "for markets"
You appear to have started this thread from a sense of frustrated cognitive dissonance - i.e. you can't understand why something that you personally can't see any value in can be traded for so much money. Although your sense of confusion has been amply induldged on here, it isn't really our problem.
I suggest you buy at least 1 bitcoin right now as insurance. That way you won't have to be standing with your pants around your ankles in 12 months time when the price is at $10,000 ranting about why it has "no value"
Money needs to have certain properties and one of them is that it needs to have value in and of itself.
Golds inherent value: its great to look at and we like to touch it. humans loved the look of this metal since dawn of man.
That's the opposite of inherent and intrinsic. It is external usage. Are you blind?
Quote
What can I do with Bitcoin except dumping it on the next guy?
Dump, transfer, barter, donate, destroy, store ...
Are you blind?
Quote
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
ANYTHING
Quote
Now what is frustrating to me, is the delusion/ crowd think fellow libertarians are falling in to. This is a pyramid and lots of people will get hurt.
It seems that you are hurted by the fact that you missed the train. Give up. Nobody will believe your fairytales.
What can I do with Bitcoin EXCEPT DUMPING IT ON THE NEXT GUY?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
Fairytale of bitcoiners: People will in future (even though this has never happened in history over a prolonged period of time) EXCHANGE SOMETHING FOR NOTHING.
Well if you say so. You wont be dumping your NOTHING on me thats for sure.
Quote
I have addressed this already. Bitcoin cant be a store of value as it has not value. Bitcoin cant be a media of exchange, as it has no value.
I think you mean it doesn't have value "for you".
That's not the same thing as it having not value "for markets"
You appear to have started this thread from a sense of frustrated cognitive dissonance - i.e. you can't understand why something that you personally can't see any value in can be traded for so much money. Although your sense of confusion has been amply induldged on here, it isn't really our problem.
I suggest you buy at least 1 bitcoin right now as insurance. That way you won't have to be standing with your pants around your ankles in 12 months time when the price is at $10,000 ranting about why it has "no value"
Money needs to have certain properties and one of them is that it needs to have value in and of itself.
Golds inherent value: its great to look at and we like to touch it. humans loved the look of this metal since dawn of man.
That's the opposite of inherent and intrinsic. It is external usage. Are you blind?
Quote
What can I do with Bitcoin except dumping it on the next guy?
Dump, transfer, barter, donate, destroy, store ...
Are you blind?
Quote
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
ANYTHING
Quote
Now what is frustrating to me, is the delusion/ crowd think fellow libertarians are falling in to. This is a pyramid and lots of people will get hurt.
It seems that you are hurted by the fact that you missed the train. Give up. Nobody will believe your fairytales.
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