Topic: Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin? (Read 758 times)

I am tempted to agree that a correction will happen. I have no technical analysis to back this up, it's just a non-professional opinion. In other words, it's just a theory.
If/when ETF is approved, Bitcoin price will rise, but I believe it would just be a short-term impact at first. This will be because there will be so much demand for Bitcoin forcing the price to rise, but after a while, there may be a huge amount of sales causing the price to drop.
The price will go up again because of course after a lot of people have started buying the dip.

This theory depends on when it would be approved, and the time between the approval and Bitcoin halving.
Not many investors would want to sell their Bitcoin when they know a halving is close.

Yes I do think another ETF is going to be 'bullish' for Bitcoin right away. And now the world's largest crypto index fund manager has released a new commercial about spot Bitcoin ETF.

Do you guys remember 'the most interesting man in the world'? Well now we have 'the Most Interesting Bitcoin Video in the World'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTDyYxynpMU

This may happen if Asian markets adopt ETFs where upward pressure on prices occurs due to increased demand, but talking about the potential reversal of Asian Markets, I don't think anyone is monitoring the valuations, thus making them very volatile.

Market conditions can also be very responsive to changes in demand and supply, significant selling actions can trigger price declines even though large institutions such as Blackrock continue to buy and the chicken and egg question arises in our minds, which comes first?

If after the approval of the ETF bitcoin will not immediately pump, I speculate what might pump bitcoin higher are the ads that will give more attention to bitcoin hehehe.

Google has updated their policy to allow ads for bitcoin ETFs. This will certainly cause google searches for bitcoin to pump which has always been correlated to the price.



Google’s crypto policy update is due to be enacted in the same month many anticipate the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. While the policy is expanding to include “Cryptocurrency Coin Trusts,” Google said cryptocurrency ETFs and ETNs can already advertise on its platform in the U.S., provided they comply with local legal requirements.

The next deadlines for the Security and Exchange Commission’s decision to approve, reject or delay applications from firms including BlackRock, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, Valkyrie and VanEck are expected to fall in mid-January.

Source https://www.theblock.co/post/267006/google-crypto-ads-spot-bitcoin-etf

if all those who buy ETF understand withdrawing their BTC out coinbase, the circulating supply would decrease. price usually goes up when the demand is larger than the supply.

it must be different in the Asian market, we don't haave this ETF yet so anyone from the East is selling BTC, I guess it's going to be dumped to those who are buying from the West. Blackrock and friends i think will still be buying, however.

Just remember that when there was a fake news published by coin telegraph about the acceptance of blackrock bitcoin ETF, the market was triggered and experienced a significant price spike, this shows that today's bitcoin ETF has a different sentiment, because the asset management company that launched the bitcoin ETF is a large company and has the largest managed assets in the world, of course it will increase the narrative and different sentiment, than the previous one.

If it does happen, the mainstream media of the financial world will report on bitcoin ETFs, mechanically it will provide a broad introduction in the traditional investment world and I think it will trigger a fairly significant adoption of bitcoin, but I think this is not easy, because the SEC continues to delay and delay about this, and maybe we will be made bored.

IDK if what is the status of it now but we can see last time, that even if it was just a rumor, the price already skyrocket, so how much more by the time it was approved for real right? Not sure how effective ETF for BTC mean, but it seems positive. And helps BTC to be among with other established companies or their assets/stocks. It makes it more popular and many investors will not be afraid on it anymore.

It's not that people are crashing it because they want to buy less, but people naturally sell in order to earn a massive profit. Apart from BTC, there are also rumors that ETH will be approved too as an ETF. Each are different but both of them were still a crypto, so BTC and other coins can still benefit with it.

So you mean the next halving will occur in March-April 2024? just like most people say that the next halving will occur in 2024 and I also believe it. but in my opinion March-April is still too fast, maybe it takes a little longer between October-November. apart from that problem I believe the introduction of an ETF will have a very good impact on the price of bitcoin.

I think one of the important criteria will be how those ETFs are structured and what the reserve requirements will look like. I haven't looked into any of the specifics of those big ETAs that are scheduled or due to be decided, but if anyone can provide some insight as to what that means in concrete terms, I would appreciate that. If an ETF has a certain volume, what will the Bitcoin reserves be that the ETF provider/operator has to have at any given point in time? This could also shed some light on interesting numbers in the future when financial institutions and other corporations have to be transparent about that.

If we do have that success ETH or approval on January 2024 then it would be a huge spike.

‘Mark Your Calendars’—Date Revealed As Huge $17 Trillion Bitcoin ETF Countdown Suddenly Begins, Heralding Ethereum, XRP And Crypto Price Chaos
Source

ETF is good yet institutional would really be that flowing into this market but i dont really like when we do speak about its cons.
Anonymity would really be that somewhat will be an issue. Am i right?

Whenever an ETF is approved, whether it is sometime next year or a few years from now, it'll definitely cause a large spike in price. After the spike could be some people will try to sell the spike to crash it back down some, but the overall price effect will be very positive.

And that's just of course the news of an announcement. Once the ETF(s) start operating and billions of dollars start buying up Bitcoin that'll of course also cause a large price spike.

From what I see, as others have said here, the ETF's upcoming halving and bull run will have a different outcome compared to past halvings. These are what I see and feel. And we can also notice that in the speculations of the other famous people in this industry.

And a lot is really expected in this matter; it seems that what we read and watch in various news stories in the crypto space is all positive. But we still shouldn't be confident because, at the end of the day, ETF will still be the next to approve this matter.

It's obvious though, we don't have the control and the power as to when the ETF will be approved by the SEC and for sure, we don't look at it this year. Nevertheless, based on the news that we heard and the entities involved, who knows, the likelihood though might be high as SEC can't delay or not approve it in the future.


With that, let the market flows normally, we have seen this already, and I think we have seen worst like in the bear market. But at the end of the day, the market is very resilient to attacks and negative news, so what's more with a positive outlook in a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval? Everything is good now. And lest we forget, there will be the block halving scheduled for next year.

I think the outcome of these things are not really all that certain, and we should be careful when we are making decisions like this. I mean it's quite clear that ETF is something that government really takes a look at very clearly and closely, which means that it is going to be hard to get it accepted. I know that it may not be all that easy to handle, but it is going to be possible eventually. So, we should be clear on what we are assuming that will happen, if we keep on having too much hype about this then when it gets postponed like it always does, then we would be upset.

Market learned about this the hard way, it has stopped caring about getting approved or not, because they realized without getting a concrete response, there is no need to buy or sell. Nowadays, we ignore it completely, and wait for it to get a response and if it any of them gets accepted then I bet the price will go up a lot but before that I do not think that we will react anyway.

Not only BNB, other cryptocurrencies as well including Bitcoin. ETF is kind a fundamental in order for the price to move, it's a good news to crypto enthusiast since it will give positive impact to Bitcoin once it is approved. There are news that very important to crypto and we should be aware of that because they commonly use it to manipulate retail traders and investors. One of that is FOMC, this news affects Bitcoin's price in a positive or negative way, we should take care of our funds. In my opinion, if you're not sure in the market or if the market is unreadable it's better stay away from the market and go back when the manipulation ends.

I think in the short term it will still have an effect but not a big impact, for example, when good news appears, bitcoin and eth will rise for a short time and then slowly fall again.
Even though the impact was small, at least it increased when the news was announced.
I will take another example, when the CEO of Binance resigned, of course it had an impact on the price of BNB, even if only slightly.

About the potential for manipulation because the launch of the ETF can already be predicted and of course big players will do the best possible manipulation.
Negatively or positively impact retailers depending on how retailers seize the moment.
Don't fight their manipulation, we have to be prepared for anything that can happen.

Right now people are focused on talking about BlackRock's ETF filing and there is a possibility that the other 2 institutions,
namely Grayscale and CBOE, will get approval or at least get a decision on their matter, in front of the world's largest asset manager.

These three institutions are competing with each other for the First Spot Bitcoin ETF and certainly the one who benefits the most is that Bitcoin investors will be the winners


 Source: K33 Research | BlackRock Bitcoin ETF timeline

And  maybe The real impact of an ETF launch on Bitcoin prices can be seen in the timing of the launch, the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, and how institutional investors react to the news.

This is normal, because the price response to the launch of an ETF cannot be predicted with certainty and I see that the introduction of an ETF also has the potential to be manipulated by large market players, giving rise to price manipulation and negative consequences for retail investors. However, the details are only when it has been approved whether it is true or false.

People have a lot of predictions as always, either up or down, but neither seem that convincing to me until either the current $25K support level fails or $28K resistance breaks. Generally people think a re-test of $20K or $30K will come next, personally I think $23K is the next level of support based on volume profile over the past year or so. Based on today's price action it seems that $25K is unlikely to hold as support (again) but that said it's too early to tell being the first day of the week. Given the news of FTX liquidations "apparently" on the horizon I don't trust price action so much right now as it's being heavily influenced by news events.

For example price could crash to $23K, even $20K, based on the liquidation news. But then if it turns out these liquidations won't be happening anytime soon then price could swiftly recover. I'm otherwise not so convinced of breaking $30K this year anymore, we had the opportunity for that to happen for about 3 months but bulls failed, so not expecting that opportunity to return very quickly, not until next year imo. At a guess I think consolidation between $20K to $30K until the end of the year seems relatively likely. This has more or less been the case for the past 9 months so I see no reason it can't continue for another 3 months.

That said if $25K does somehow hold as support and $28K breaks as resistance, then the chances of breaking $30K resistance level increases. As does the possibility of consolidating between $25K and $30K for another few months, given price has already consolidated in this range for 6 months, confirming there is a healthy balance at present between buyers and sellers in this range. I guess this is why I don't have a lot of technical analysis right now, because it's generally based on "more or the same price action", ie sideways or consolidation, rather than bullish/bearish, even if some lower prices come first. At least until something gives.

Do we have some kind of prediction until the end of the year? I used to see you posting some technical analysis indicators, but I haven’t seen any of them for a while. Notice that the price is losing momentum and breaking $28,000 has become a challenge. So, will we remain below 30,000 for the end of the year, or might we settle between 26,000 to 36,000, or lower than that?