Topic: Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin? - page 3. (Read 851 times)

If it's a spot Bitcoin ETH, it might make the price of Bitcoin reach it's previous ATH faster than everyone would've thought.
I just watched a video hours ago regarding ETF's.

It said on that video that the best example on what could be the effect of a spot Bitcoin ETF is the first Gold spot ETF that has been accepted many years ago. Before that, the price of Gold was at around $400 per ounce. After it got accepted, the price of Gold went from ~$400 to around ~$2000 in just a span of 7 years.

If Blackrock's filing for spot Bitcoin ETF will get accepted by SEC, I'm pretty sure that it will have the same effect as when the Gold spot ETF was accepted, and the good thing is that I expect that it will be faster that's why I expect Bitcoin to reach it's previous ATH of ~$69,000 way earlier, and when I mean way earlier, it might happen a few months before the halving. Now to answer the question, yes it will be a bullish because investors see this as a good thing and when there's a good thing happening with the market, people tend to buy more thus, increasing it's price.

The problem right now is Gary Gensler who is holding these spot Bitcoin ETF's, but on the other hand, of all the 550+ number of ETF's Blackrock has filed, only one got rejected. Still the chances of it to be accepted would be 50/50 so anything can happen. Overall, this filing would have a huge effect on Bitcoin's price, and the whole crypto market as well.

Today I think on CNBC or Bloomberg or one of the larger finance stations they had the former head of the SEC who is claiming that SEC should approve the Bitcoin ETF.

How did the markets react? They didn’t seem to care. So until we get a solid YES or NO most likely nothing will come of this Bitcoin etf speculation. Plus there is also the halving which is going to happen at a similar time when the majority of these etfs are going to be approved or denied.

I know that it would be good for everyone to see bitcoin price going up and we love these things but that doesn't mean we are going to end up with a good result right away, plus we shouldn't really see one for a while longer there is no doubt that no ETF will happen these days.

What I really want to see is Gary getting fired, that would be a great reason for bitcoin to go up, I know not a lot of people expect that to be the case and we are not going to get a lot of good results right away, but I feel like that would be a good one. I think it is going to be very important for us all and if that happens then we can see that Gary can't do bad stuff about crypto companies anymore and the price would react to that which would be going up a lot.

We know that in the past few years regarding that in the past ETFs, all that happened were rejections, that's why there was only a massive dump in the Bitcoin value, and it was repeated several times and there were many witnesses.

Now, if this time next year there is a positive result about in that ETF, this will probably be the first time that there is an approved application that passed in ETF if I'm not mistaken in my understanding and it's good, and very favorable to bitcoin holders because there will surely be a rally in the market in terms of its value.

Or because of his political affiliations, he is forced not to accept any Bitcoin ETF as long as he is the Chairman of SEC. Which means this is really bad for us whatever we like it or not. Because there is an argument that we don't need ETF itself, but on the other hand, there is a proponent and we see huge amount of institutional money flowing in the market that can push us to the next level, at least 6 digit next bull run. So we will see how it goes, I have a feeling that we might have a breakthrough acceptance in the next future coinciding with a a new all time high.

"Why a Bitcoin ETF approval would be a big deal" - https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-a-bitcoin-etf-approval-would-be-a-big-deal

Gary just holds the bitcoin growing in my opinion, according to the Forbes Advisor Bitcoin is growing it already touch the 1 Billion mark so it will continue to rise if the recent filling get approval well the 35K level it will achive at the end of year

- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/best-bitcoin-etfs/

Fair point, there is only a few examples to go by, even if all were bearish scenarios, it's far from a conclusive trend.


This is to some degree what I'm expecting. I can't imagine there wouldn't be overblown speculation to the upside if an ETF is approved or date set for launch. And with these speculative overblown moves to the upside there is always a correction that follows. Given that the speculation usually leads up to the event, rather than begins during/afterwards, then this is my theory for a considerable correction post launch.

Ie if the question were will price be bullish speculation leading into an ETF launch I'd say absolutely, this is my main reasoning for considering the launch itself to trigger a bearish correction.

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Nice graphic +1

Personally I would expect the effect of another Bitcoin ETF on the price in the immediate term if approved would be positive, of course we will see a lot of volatility but it will be positive in the end.

You can see the positive impact that happened as soon as you hear the news, if BlackRock is actually approved, at least with a very large capital, there will be a lot of liquidity entering the market and therefore the effect is expected to be immediate.

Of course, there are other companies with additional liquidity that will enter the market, and this will certainly have a great positive impact. In addition to the moral victory the market will gain if it wins this battle with the SEC.

He really is, I wonder if he steps down and we will be able to see a spot Bitcoin ETF, maybe in the coming years. There's still time left before these recent filings expires and it's still up to September the next year and if approved by ser Gary even one filings that would be very bullish for the whole market, no doubt. We even see the sentiment gearing up even if it's just still a filing, how much more when it's within investor's grasp? Too bullish.

It would be brought to bullish in my opinion since etf would be buy bitcoin right? and if more institutions came up bitcoin would drive up, but bitcoin price would be highly correlated with other asset like stock and economic news.

Tho Sec seems not to approve yet any Bitcoin ETF out there

Update :  

Mr gary seems dont like the bitcoin etf

I think the way bitcoin has been maturing is good. Blackrock can add more of that, it really is going to depend how much contribution to the are going buy in with is important. BR has trillions it may be an issues for them simply buy enough bitcoin and not bake the market. They swing a big D*** and could easily generate a problem likke  with Ginsler, suppress the price and buy in then "fix" the problem

ETF's let people include them in retirement accounts (401K) and such is kinda cool.

What did you expected him to say? We are not going to get our ETF approved? Of course he would look like he is super excited about it and believe that it is going to be approved, I am not saying he is lying, all I am saying is that he could be biased towards his own ETF getting approved even if it is not going to get approved, I am not even saying it is not going to get approved, maybe it will be, but we can't really understand that from what he is saying because he is lop sided on that idea.

So, all we have to do is wait for it to do well, and I would be glad to see that change sometime soon. If it gets approved that would of course be a good thing for the crypto world, we would love to see that happening and should be happy that it did.

The black rock ceo was on the news today talking about Bitcoin. Seems he really wants that etf to get approved and launched and he is fairly sure it will get approved.

You would think Bitcoin would rally on this news however it basically traded sideways and went down. Basically proof that these etf news releases won’t make any concrete difference until it’s actually approved or rejected.

Now it’s more about the fed and if they will hike or not.

If the bad effects occur yes but what if it's the positive one? I think it's better to buy right now because this price might still be cheaper compared to what we will have later on. It seems there are no more corrections in $30k because we are getting stable for some time. It probably moved in the higher levels. Everyone is positive in the upcoming halving that it can have a positive effect in Bitcoins value.

It might be true but there are no guarantees that we will make a new ATH. It is still possible to sell for profit as long as you bought lower before the event. People should realize that 2024 is not the final year. There are still more to come with Bitcoin.

What I meant is that although there are signs pointing to an incoming ETF hype having a similar effect on the price of BTC as it did in the past, we cannot make predictions on the price action just yet, because there is not enough historical data to make a statistical prediction on this specific event. We have had only a precious few BTC ETF filings in the past so any perceived correlations may turn out to be nothing but coincidence.

But what we know to be true and tested many times is the fact that whenever there is a positive hype, there is overblown speculative price growth.


As I said, unless a patterns keeps repeating a certain amount of times, at minimum, it should not be considered a correlative pattern just yet. In fact, this last ETF filing is very different (or so they say) to the past BTC ETF filings. That alone might give one the impression that the BTC price action will be unpredictable.

When in doubt, Hodl.

Blackrock refiled it’s application already. So they are obviously very keen on getting it approved and launched. Some hedge fund stated earlier that there is a good chance it’s approved.

Will it promote a rally? Sure but what I worry is what happens after the etf goes live. Like the prior etf launches Bitcoin basically quickly reversed and went into a horrible bear market.

Maybe this time will be different, who knows.

There are only two things I see there, ETF can bring positive and negative impact to the community of the crypto industry to be honest. Because I just noticed that when the approval is close to happening, there is often a real rally in the value of Bitcoin.

And when the result is no longer good in the end, there is also a sudden rally in lowering its price in the market. they say the scenario is now, but let's see.

The problem is launching it, not really having it increase the price because that is the afterthought at this point. What people do not understand is that we are at a stage where people have to realize its not going to be that easy to launch an ETF, even the biggest companies that try it do not manage to get it done that quickly, so what happens is that we end up with a loss eventually and that's why we end up with a bad result. This means that any time any big company tries it and fails it, we end up with a drop or at least we end up with stop going up. This is why if we are going to keep failing time and time after again, why do we even attempt to do it? For the off chance that one day we may end up achieving something like this? I do not think that's a good reason to try it.

Turns out that people is already that watching about on those next news about ETF's and other correlated stuff into it on which it would really be having that kind of impression which it could neither ending up on being positive or negative basing up on such decision whether it would really be that approved or would really be rejected. We've been here before about these ETF thing but it vanish out and now we are here
once again with this kind of trend on where it is really that people or the community is really looking into because it do really make out that significant effect with these type of news or fundamentals.
Dont know if this one would really be continuing or not or would really be a long time running of waiting once again about approval or something but sure thing that if ever one for those
things would be approved or implied or whatsoever then it would really make out that significant effect on the market.

Isn't this same sort of correlation = causation you are making, but with added context? As you said, in the short-term there is unjustified price speculation to the upside, which is more than enough to lead to a sell-off as we have seen with CME launch, Bakkt as well as Pro-Shares. So there is effectively a causation for this correlation which is the price speculation to put it simply, instead of being completely random.

I'm not even talking about some short-term correction either. With CME launch it was the top of the 2017 bull market, with Bakkt is was part of a 50%+ correction, and Pro-Shares was the top of the 2021 bull market. If in each of these cases there was a minor correction or otherwise price consolidation then sure, it'd be more or less irrelevant, but as stated, I'm talking about 50%+ price corrections, admittedly after 100%+ increases.

A launch of a new ETF not dumping the price would effectively be the first time in Bitcoin's history that price hasn't dumped after a major "product" launch. This is kind of my point here. Sure you can say that the three examples I've given are completely random and unrelated to considerable price declines, but it seems like a distinct pattern so far that has yet to be broken as a concept.