Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin? - page 2.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: Unbunplease on September 10, 2023, 05:31:33 PM

In my opinion, the mass introduction of ETFs will start in March-April 2024, by the time bitcoin halves, which will start a new bull run.

Am starting to get the impression that the next leg up, or otherwise new bull market, won't be until next year either now. There is also the (somewhat unconfirmed) news that FTX will be selling off $268m Bitcoin over the next 17 weeks which would take us to the end of the year. The irony being that this isn't a lot for liquidity to absorb (it'd be around $16m per week), but would likely spook investors in the immediate term.

By next year there should be a clean slate for price to be able to move back to the upside, especially once there are only a few months until the halving.

Unbunplease

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In my opinion, the mass introduction of ETFs will start in March-April 2024, by the time bitcoin halves, which will start a new bull run. A bull run doesn't start out of nowhere - you need some kind of infopod. And this information occasion is always prepared in advance

sana54210

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on September 08, 2023, 09:18:43 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 06, 2023, 09:53:37 PM

@dragonvslinux. However, if at the very least one of the applications was quite certain to be approved this year, should the market not begin to move more positively in anticipation to the approval?

Not on the anticipation no, that sentiment has been around for many years already. But on the approval prior to the launch event, that'd likely be a few weeks or could even be months away.

It was a similar story for other Bitcoin related launch products, futures & etf strategies etc. The market is usually bullish from the approval but then dumps after the launch.

Sometimes the launch date is only days after the approval, so potentially that could be the least fatal option, in order not to dump too hard on the news.

I would guess that launch date would be one of the worst times to invest, because everyone would have been invested beforehand and when it happens they will just sell to take profit. I know that I could also be very wrong but I believe that it is going to be like that. We are going to end up with something that would be more like going super high before it happens and then crash when it happens to take profit.

Most many people will have too much money tied to it, so they will want to not take any more risk and sell it. Obviously this will not be true if it happens during bull run, because during big bull runs we see it go up, and then see it go up even more which means that it could happen like that as well.

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 04, 2023, 11:35:26 PM

It appears the market is telling everyone that there will be no approvals for any of the applications on ETFs this year? What is everyone's speculation on this?

The decision to be made on wether to approve bitcoin ETF applications or not is not base on the market indications alone, we may have a bear market althrough this season and yet there's a confirmation coming from SEC for approval, the fourteenth year perfection is good enough for them to take a look at, with being consistent in the market in other to know the difference bitcoin has from other cryptocurrencies, and now that the governments are seing more of bitcoin being recognized as an acceptable means of payment they can rely and trust, we should be expecting any good news between now till next year when the market surge, maybe by then all their doubts would have been cleared and most bitcoin ETF will be approved.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 06, 2023, 09:53:37 PM

@dragonvslinux. However, if at the very least one of the applications was quite certain to be approved this year, should the market not begin to move more positively in anticipation to the approval?

Not on the anticipation no, that sentiment has been around for many years already. But on the approval prior to the launch event, that'd likely be a few weeks or could even be months away.

It was a similar story for other Bitcoin related launch products, futures & etf strategies etc. The market is usually bullish from the approval but then dumps after the launch.

Sometimes the launch date is only days after the approval, so potentially that could be the least fatal option, in order not to dump too hard on the news.

bbc.reporter

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@dragonvslinux. However, if at the very least one of the applications was quite certain to be approved this year, should the market not begin to move more positively in anticipation to the approval?

Similar conditions for GBTC and Barry's group because if there is one ETF that will approved, GBTC converting into an ETF is 100% certain. Watch the movement of GBTC from discount to premium. This might be the first signal.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 04, 2023, 11:35:26 PM

It appears the market is telling everyone that there will be no approvals for any of the applications on ETFs this year? What is everyone's speculation on this?

It's because all ETF applications that had their decision dates this week postponed. It just means there won't be an ETF approved this week, not that there won't be one this year.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 04, 2023, 11:35:26 PM

Also, after Grayscale won their case against the SEC, I reckon our attention should be on GBTC. Barry and his insiders would be buying much of this if they have confidential information if an ETF approval of any of the applications is near hehehe.

They are just speculating that it will happen eventually, and I imagine in the long-term they'll be right about that as well. Since the discount was 40$ to NAV people have been speculating, now it's only around 20%.

I doubt that Greyscale will be the first ETF though, but they'll get there eventually once others are approved.

bbc.reporter

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It appears the market is telling everyone that there will be no approvals for any of the applications on ETFs this year? What is everyone's speculation on this?

Also, after Grayscale won their case against the SEC, I reckon our attention should be on GBTC. Barry and his insiders would be buying much of this if they have confidential information if an ETF approval of any of the applications is near hehehe.

darewaller

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on July 20, 2023, 10:18:58 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on July 11, 2023, 06:38:37 PM

I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

Agreed. These cryptonews outlets might also have given less of a 50% chance for Brad Garlichouse and Ripple to win the lawsuit that the SEC filed against the company hehehe. When the ETF is approved, I reckon this is where disbelief is suddenly replaced by hope and optimism.

This image has been shared a million times and people still can't keep their logic on this. I mean it's obvious that the market has a cycle and we need to come to agreement with it and learn how to manipulate it. I have been burned by this before but I learned it and for the past bull run I took full advantage of it thankfully, and this time I am expecting to take full advantage of it again. I am not saying it's going to be easy or difficult, but I am sure that it will happen one way or another.

We are at the "hope" stage probably, and it's going to get to optimism around the new year, and then it's going to get much better after that because we are going to reach belief after halving, and peak times after the halving of course.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: OgNasty on July 11, 2023, 06:38:37 PM

I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

Agreed. These cryptonews outlets might also have given less of a 50% chance for Brad Garlichouse and Ripple to win the lawsuit that the SEC filed against the company hehehe. When the ETF is approved, I reckon this is where disbelief is suddenly replaced by hope and optimism.

STT

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I think we're discussing the next election cycle if it requires a large change in opinion behind prior refusals and most probably a change in the official barring the approval required. So that time line is next year not this year and actually maybe end of next year into 2025 before any ETF would be near to available for the ordinary person interested. Theres GBTC now but when I inquire on that route its not available to me especially and thats probably the case for a few others. I would have bought already if it was clearly available, it would probably help BTC some for a short while at least but also reverse some of the support helping other alternate proxies currently used by people for BTC in their portfolio.

_BlackStar

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I fully believe that if a spot bitcoin ETF gets approved - then the high demand for bitcoin will drive its price to the moon. That's the best assumption I can think of - but either way this bitcoin ETF doesn't seem like it's going to be that easy to get approved for. The SEC seems to disagree about ETFs, they may be afraid that when the price of bitcoin goes to the moon then the stability of the world economy will be disturbed and they will not be able to control it.

It's great for ETFs to get approved - but I believe this idea won't be easy. Many of us have been preparing to hear the positive news - but some how I think it will be hard to come true.

hatshepsut93

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If an ETF will get approved sometime close to the halvening, it might become a source of media hype that will help to fuel the bull run (that would happen with or without it). In the previous cycle we had "institutional adoption hype", with Microstrategy leading the way, Tesla following and later a few other companies making statements about adopting Bitcoin, that seem to never materialize.

But I think the relationship between the media hype and bull run is not clear. Is the hype causing the bull run or the bull run creates a need to explain it, so positive news get amplified?

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 14, 2023, 01:05:48 PM

Quote from: laurenB7742 on July 12, 2023, 12:51:02 AM

Quote from: mvdheuvel1983 on July 11, 2023, 09:48:07 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 27, 2023, 02:46:13 PM

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

If news about ETFs can help push up the price of bitcoin, we should also be careful because if they are not accepted, it will also negatively affect the market. Everything has its two sides, don't just look at the benefits but forget about its bad effects on the market. And so far, the SEC has consistently rejected and delayed ETFs, so I don't take this news too seriously.

This is a very good point that I hadn't seen anyone mention yet. For example if you believe that the reason why price rebounded strong from $25K to $30K is because of the ETF filings - which personally I'm not convinced of, but many believe this it seems - then any rejection could well see price correct back towards where it came from prior to the "bullish ETF" news, ie around $25K.

I can't remember exact examples but I do remember previous ETF rejections having a negative effect on price, likewise any approval would almost certainly be bullish for price (at least until the launch date).

Definitely, market reacts to the news itself, but there could be non effect at all as we have been hearing this ETF as far back as 2016 and yet the market thrives and reaching new all time high every 4 year cycle.

However, as bitcoin market is growing, there could be pros and cons of having and ETF instrument in the future. For one who will see institutional money flowing in and this could be the biggest reasons why the price might to go 6 digits in the future.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: laurenB7742 on July 12, 2023, 12:51:02 AM

Quote from: mvdheuvel1983 on July 11, 2023, 09:48:07 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 27, 2023, 02:46:13 PM

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

If news about ETFs can help push up the price of bitcoin, we should also be careful because if they are not accepted, it will also negatively affect the market. Everything has its two sides, don't just look at the benefits but forget about its bad effects on the market. And so far, the SEC has consistently rejected and delayed ETFs, so I don't take this news too seriously.

This is a very good point that I hadn't seen anyone mention yet. For example if you believe that the reason why price rebounded strong from $25K to $30K is because of the ETF filings - which personally I'm not convinced of, but many believe this it seems - then any rejection could well see price correct back towards where it came from prior to the "bullish ETF" news, ie around $25K.

I can't remember exact examples but I do remember previous ETF rejections having a negative effect on price, likewise any approval would almost certainly be bullish for price (at least until the launch date).

laurenB7742

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Quote from: mvdheuvel1983 on July 11, 2023, 09:48:07 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 27, 2023, 02:46:13 PM

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

If news about ETFs can help push up the price of bitcoin, we should also be careful because if they are not accepted, it will also negatively affect the market. Everything has its two sides, don't just look at the benefits but forget about its bad effects on the market. And so far, the SEC has consistently rejected and delayed ETFs, so I don't take this news too seriously. News about ETFs will be interesting if we are in 2017, 2018, but nothing too new right now.

mvdheuvel1983

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 27, 2023, 02:46:13 PM

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

goldkingcoiner

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Quote from: OgNasty on July 11, 2023, 06:38:37 PM

I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

Oh they have no idea! They are just stating 50% so they can cover their butts no matter which direction the ETF result goes. It's just them baiting readers as a sort of marketing tactic to grow their own reader audience. No matter which way it goes, the publishers will boast of a true prediction from their side.

I too would be leaning towards ETF approval at this point.

The first signal of an approval would be a pump. Half an hour to an hour later, we will see social media blowing up and lastly, the "news" will be the "first" to report on it.

OgNasty

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I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

DeathAngel

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A Spot ETF approval(s) would be absolutely bullish for bitcoin. There is no doubt about that. It allows a whole new wave of money to flow into bitcoin which is this far prohibited. The sooner it happen, the better. I think the SEC will approve one before too long due to pressure from respected big names in the world of finance.

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