Topic: Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin? - page 4. (Read 830 times)

So I thought I'd try and gauge sentiment over how another Bitcoin ETF will affect price in the immediate term if approved, as well as offer my own personal opinion.

I understand it's considered bullish for Bitcoin long-term, but in the short-term, I'm not so convinced it will be good for price. As many of you may remember, when CME/CBOE launched futures trading for Bitcoin in December 2017 this was very much at the peak of the bull-run before a -83% correction in price. Then there was the Bakkt futures launch in September 2019 prior to a further price decline of -50%+. Finally there was the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF that was (again) launched at the very peak of the bull market in November 2021 prior to a 75% price decline. Is anyone else noticing a pattern here???

I realise that previous futures launches are different than the current proposed ETFs, as far as I understand, but the facts remains the same. Each time a traditional form of investment product based on Bitcoin has been launched, price has corrected significantly, between 50% and 83% basically. What's as concerning is that price is currently at a resistance level which could now become a local peak...

Ideally any new product won't be launched until price reaches $40K to $50K levels at a minimum, so that a correction doesn't threaten recent lows. But otherwise I imagine it will be the same old story of "buy the rumour sell the news", with a potential long-term bullish effect on Bitcoin but only after a short-term negative effect that becomes the catalyst for a considerable correction in price.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong if there were Bitcoin Futures/ETF launches that didn't negatively effect price in the short-term, as based on my current knowledge, this has been the only outcome so far.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

Speculatively its already had an effect and scared the shorts off which in of itself is a buying effect.  A short must always end in a buy, thats the thing to remember when you hear people are short its good to remember that.  I would mostly count that immediate effect as bullish and then if the ETF is setup it will enable a wider range of involvement in the population.   Part of why they dont just allow an ETF already is apprehension on BTC regulation and all sorts of worries.

It was interesting to me the Fidelity filed their ETF and then the SEC made a statement about ETF filings being incomplete and then Fidelity immediately updated their filing to show that Coinbase would be the custodian of their Bitcoin. This shows me that the SEC is in close talks with these banks and an ETF approval is right on the horizon.

Is anyone else noticing a pattern here???

Another day another large company showing their intent to create a Bitcoin ETF. the effect this is going to have on the Bitcoin market will in my opinion follow gold’s footsteps. Gold went up from around $275 per ounce to $1800 per ounce in the 8 years following its ETF’s launch. When you factor in BTC’s halvings and scarcity, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to make the statement that BTC will hit $800,000 in 2033.

(1800/275)*4*30,555.56=800K

(Get gold’s increase)*account for halvings*insert BTC price=BTC price 8 years after ETFs go live.

Depends on which cycle we have in my opinion, as you have said, the CME/CBoe enter when we are in peak of the bull run in 2017, pushing to a new all time high. But after that, it was all downhill for us and even if we have the Bakkt news, still it didn't have significant effect on 2019 and almost everyone here forget about Bakkt.

So maybe if there is a chance that ETF be approved next year and the timing for a block halving and then a bull run. For sure it might added a new set of FOMO and bullish case for a massive growth 2024-2025.

Apparently ARK updated their Bitcoin etf filing and made it a similar trust as blackrock and the rest of the proposed upcoming Bitcoin etfs.

What is interesting is that ARK deadline is in August. It’s before blackrock and the rest. So we should know soon if this will be a go ahead or not. Most likely if ARK is rejected, so will the rest of the etfs.

I realise that previous futures launches are different than the current proposed ETFs, as far as I understand, but the facts remains the same. Each time a traditional form of investment product based on Bitcoin has been launched, price has corrected significantly, between 50% and 83% basically. What's as concerning is that price is currently at a resistance level which could now become a local peak...

I know that the approval period for the ETF application is 8 months. A few companies have applied for ETF recently, most importantly BlackRock has only one red eft transaction they have made so far. Most likely, if the supervisory authority approves at the end of eight months, you know, this time coincides with the halving, if it coincides with the same time, this parallel event can wake up the super bulls. Let's say the ETF was not approved and rejected, there is not much that can hold the bull because there will be a halving again and the supply will decrease, so the demands will come true at the right time. If the ETF application is rejected in less than eight months and the red lines increase further, this is an opportunity to buy Bitcoin cheaply.

Ideally any new product won't be launched until price reaches $40K to $50K levels at a minimum, so that a correction doesn't threaten recent lows. But otherwise I imagine it will be the same old story of "buy the rumour sell the news", with a potential long-term bullish effect on Bitcoin but only after a short-term negative effect that becomes the catalyst for a considerable correction in price.