Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 4. (Read 11933 times)
I wonder how many S9's will be brought back on stream now that Bitmain's cloud mining setup is dangling some very attractive short term carrots under people's noses?
Thanks, I got in through Firefox. just bypassed the security warning. I imagine the "real time" updates might be messing up the security certificate verification's. The spread is tightening between -12.8% and 10.5% with a marked downward bias. The trend is still firmly lower. I suppose it's possible to hit -13.00% or a bit lower on next jump.
me and buysolar did well
only wish was to have done it bigger.
and to have cashed out better although we cashed most of our coins out above 13000.
This allows us to not worry about much as long as we don't fold it all back in.
so we are 184 blocks behind and if diff drops to 4.9 or 5.0 that is around 35,500,000,000 to 36,400,000,000 hash
we may follow up with the dec 19 to jan 4 with 4.7 diff and 34,000,000,000 hash a -2 to -5% drop
The bottom is looking like 34,000,000,000 gh and 4.7 diff
if that is accurate
a 4 cent guy with a s-9
earns 27 a month at a diff of 5.6 and a price of 3488
earns 35 a month at a diff of 4.9 and a price of 3488
earns 40 a month at a diff of 4.7 and a price of 3488
do that downward diff allows for a lot more price drop .
I figure 25,000,000,000 of the remaining 37,000,000,000 gh is 4 cents or better
only wish was to have done it bigger.
and to have cashed out better although we cashed most of our coins out above 13000.
This allows us to not worry about much as long as we don't fold it all back in.
so we are 184 blocks behind and if diff drops to 4.9 or 5.0 that is around 35,500,000,000 to 36,400,000,000 hash
we may follow up with the dec 19 to jan 4 with 4.7 diff and 34,000,000,000 hash a -2 to -5% drop
The bottom is looking like 34,000,000,000 gh and 4.7 diff
if that is accurate
a 4 cent guy with a s-9
earns 27 a month at a diff of 5.6 and a price of 3488
earns 35 a month at a diff of 4.9 and a price of 3488
earns 40 a month at a diff of 4.7 and a price of 3488
do that downward diff allows for a lot more price drop .
I figure 25,000,000,000 of the remaining 37,000,000,000 gh is 4 cents or better
Their certificate expired...probably.
I've opened it in a vm just to be sure, this is the actual situation:
We're in for another 10%, the market looks bleak, bitmain is starting a cloud mining service (topic got trashed lols).....
Not entirely the happy holiday picture, except for some guys running on solar panels that already recouped the investment
I've opened it in a vm just to be sure, this is the actual situation:
We're in for another 10%, the market looks bleak, bitmain is starting a cloud mining service (topic got trashed lols).....
Not entirely the happy holiday picture, except for some guys running on solar panels that already recouped the investment
it wont open for me but I do not get the not secure warning on safari
this one works
as does this one
gray line is current hash not average and it is dropping
9 month is interesting
this one works
Quote from: https://alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator
Next difficulty retarget occurs at block 553650.0 (eta -683.5 sec): 4.95687451723e+12 / -12.2% [est.]
as does this one
Quote from: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 5,646,403,851,534
Estimated Next Difficulty: 5,050,629,692,196 (-10.55%)
Adjust time: After 749 Blocks, About 6.0 days
Hashrate(?): 35,732,954,895 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 11.5 minutes
3 blocks: 34.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Estimated Next Difficulty: 5,050,629,692,196 (-10.55%)
Adjust time: After 749 Blocks, About 6.0 days
Hashrate(?): 35,732,954,895 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 11.5 minutes
3 blocks: 34.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
gray line is current hash not average and it is dropping
9 month is interesting
Anyone else seeing this warning on the Diff calculator site; https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Haven't been able to open it for 2 days now.
Quote
This site is not secure
This might mean that someone’s trying to fool you or steal any info you send to the server. You should close this site immediately.
Go to your Start page
Details
This might mean that someone’s trying to fool you or steal any info you send to the server. You should close this site immediately.
Go to your Start page
Details
Haven't been able to open it for 2 days now.
yup and alongside the texas links also mined with them in Labrador, Canada, see Google: https://www.greatnorthdata.com/
and they were definitely in on mining in Quebec even if this subject does keep them anonymous and article only suspects them https://www.forbes.com/sites/astanley/2018/10/01/the-future-of-bitcoin-mining-in-quebec-could-rest-on-mondays-parliamentary-elections/#6cf9a1d464f6
and they were definitely in on mining in Quebec even if this subject does keep them anonymous and article only suspects them https://www.forbes.com/sites/astanley/2018/10/01/the-future-of-bitcoin-mining-in-quebec-could-rest-on-mondays-parliamentary-elections/#6cf9a1d464f6
I don't think that anyone would take a miner down that was profitable unless:
1) They had more efficient gear
2) They had enough to effect the overall hashrate. Thus making it seem like new gear was a way better deal than it really was (Bitmain)
Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.
1) They had more efficient gear
2) They had enough to effect the overall hashrate. Thus making it seem like new gear was a way better deal than it really was (Bitmain)
Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.
It's very common knowledge within the informed members of the community. They set up a location in WA under a separate corporate name and Canada as well. I know of at least two Commercial Scale mining operations of massive size that have been contacted by them. Yo can doubt all you want. It doesn't change facts. Are you not aware that Bitmain has been having problems with the Chinese Govt? Apparently not. I'll give you a little head start here, but you do the rest of your own investigating. To ease your "doubts".
https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-confirms-new-texas-mining-facility
[...] Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.
articles about a massive setup in texas were on the net.
This would be the best way to sell gear actually. NOT MINE AS A MANUFACTURER.
"If the price recovers quickly." Agreed, of course. Bitmain's problems these days extend well beyond "selling miners". By all accounts, Bitmain was mid-stream into moving and opening large mining capacity in the USA and Canada. Very costly play at the wrong time. Perfect storm for Bitmain. 1) Massive back log of legacy technology miners on the secondary market. 2) massive CAP EX expenditure in New Tech Chips 3) Huge price drop 3) BTC/BCH/BCH SV debacle 4) Plenty of new competition 5) Horrible 7NM tech launch. . I'm sure I've missed a few. 6) Terrible timing for their IPO. I suspect it's not by choice that Bitmain is taking a LOT of Hashing power off the Network. It's now a matter of corporate survival. No more " Have your cake and eat it too" for ole Bitmain. This is a GOOD thing!
I don't think that anyone would take a miner down that was profitable unless:
1) They had more efficient gear
2) They had enough to effect the overall hashrate. Thus making it seem like new gear was a way better deal than it really was (Bitmain)
Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.
I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.
As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.
Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.
That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.
As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.
Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.
That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.
"If the price recovers quickly." Agreed, of course. Bitmain's problems these days extend well beyond "selling miners". By all accounts, Bitmain was mid-stream into moving and opening large mining capacity in the USA and Canada. Very costly play at the wrong time. Perfect storm for Bitmain. 1) Massive back log of legacy technology miners on the secondary market. 2) massive CAP EX expenditure in New Tech Chips 3) Huge price drop 3) BTC/BCH/BCH SV debacle 4) Plenty of new competition 5) Horrible 7NM tech launch. . I'm sure I've missed a few. 6) Terrible timing for their IPO. I suspect it's not by choice that Bitmain is taking a LOT of Hashing power off the Network. It's now a matter of corporate survival. No more " Have your cake and eat it too" for ole Bitmain. This is a GOOD thing!
I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.
As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.
Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.
That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.
As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.
Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.
That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.
well 4 cents and lower = not much fear
but even 6 cent power with new gear is an issue.
I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.
As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.
Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.
That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.
As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.
Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.
That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.
Last 30 days :
High - 55 exahashesPerSecond
Low - 31 exahashesPerSecond
Last 7 days :
High - 41 exahashesPerSecond
Low - 31 exahashesPerSecond
Current Block: 553411
Current Diff: 5646403851534
Next Difficulty[EST]: 4950720795708 & 5101689291300
Next Difficulty Change[EST] -12.3208% and -9.6471%
Last Retarget: December 3, 2018 at 11:46 AM
Next Retarget[EST]: December 18, 2018 at 11:58 PM (in 7d 8h 34m 19s)
It Seems the slope continues.
High - 55 exahashesPerSecond
Low - 31 exahashesPerSecond
Last 7 days :
High - 41 exahashesPerSecond
Low - 31 exahashesPerSecond
Current Block: 553411
Current Diff: 5646403851534
Next Difficulty[EST]: 4950720795708 & 5101689291300
Next Difficulty Change[EST] -12.3208% and -9.6471%
Last Retarget: December 3, 2018 at 11:46 AM
Next Retarget[EST]: December 18, 2018 at 11:58 PM (in 7d 8h 34m 19s)
It Seems the slope continues.
Thanks for the update again Phil. Personally I believe that the Scrypt/Litecoin Diff will be more bouyant or subject to upmoves, as these units seem to be typically run by mid-size or semi-commercial miners that tend more to flip them on and off as profitability fluctuates? Would you agree with this? I suspect a LOT of L3's are sitting on racks just waiting to be plugged in. I also suspect the S-9 crowd are far more committed on floor and infrastructure costs, along with personnel and maintenance costs for typically larger scale ops. It just seems like the S-9 Diff will be a bit more stubborn on moves higher as the overstretched Commercial operations continue to get flushed out.
Yes so if we continue to drift downwards we may average to 36-37,000,000,000 gh this drop followed by another drop to 33-34,000,000,000 gh
LTC dropped from hashrate of 323,782 gh in may to 169,928 in dec
about 48 % drop if btc does that it goes to 27-28,000,000,000 gh maybe just past jan say jan 3 or 4.
If 4 cent power is the floor based on large farms working with power plants to handle excess power then
1)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with current diff of 5.646 which is 40,000,000,000 gh coins at 3250
2)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with new diff of 5.106 which is 36,000,000,000 gh coins at 2950
3)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with a new diff of 4.893 which is 34,500,000,000 gh coins at 2825
so we are at 1) and 2) is pretty sure to come 3) coming after 2 I don't know but all show downtrend in prices that the excess/leveler farms can handle.
So it is getting more and more likely this goes on just as it is.
yeah some hosting companys are going to go down but I see the trend still continuing.
If ltc is the lead indicator then this goes on.
LTC dropped from hashrate of 323,782 gh in may to 169,928 in dec
about 48 % drop if btc does that it goes to 27-28,000,000,000 gh maybe just past jan say jan 3 or 4.
If 4 cent power is the floor based on large farms working with power plants to handle excess power then
1)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with current diff of 5.646 which is 40,000,000,000 gh coins at 3250
2)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with new diff of 5.106 which is 36,000,000,000 gh coins at 2950
3)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with a new diff of 4.893 which is 34,500,000,000 gh coins at 2825
so we are at 1) and 2) is pretty sure to come 3) coming after 2 I don't know but all show downtrend in prices that the excess/leveler farms can handle.
So it is getting more and more likely this goes on just as it is.
yeah some hosting companys are going to go down but I see the trend still continuing.
If ltc is the lead indicator then this goes on.
Loving the drop in diff though my concern is if the hashrate continues to decline on BTC are we not running the risk of allowing 2nd chain to catch up in Log2(POW) if an attacker has been "covert" building upon a 2nd secret chain could this not allow for a much easier 51% attack in the future if things continue to decline.
While it might be a good thing for some in the short term the drop in hash and diff I think there is something we are missing here.
The only thing we are "missing" is a LOT of S9's LOL!! Praise Satoshi!! Don't worry, your scenario might play out in Dash but BTC? With the self correcting nature within the software, it is possible but very very remote. While it might be a good thing for some in the short term the drop in hash and diff I think there is something we are missing here.
So 34,500,000,000 gh is lowest since June correct?
I got this on bitcoinwisdom
Jun 19 2018 5,077,499,034,879 2.77% 36,346,153,834 GH/s
Jun 05 2018 4,940,704,885,521 14.71% 35,366,943,171 GH/s
May 24 2018 4,306,949,573,981 3.94% 30,830,345,943 GH/s
I got this on bitcoinwisdom
Jun 19 2018 5,077,499,034,879 2.77% 36,346,153,834 GH/s
Jun 05 2018 4,940,704,885,521 14.71% 35,366,943,171 GH/s
May 24 2018 4,306,949,573,981 3.94% 30,830,345,943 GH/s
down in diff we go!
gray line has us under 35,000,000,000gh!
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com
Current Pace: 86.8522% (770 / 886.56 expected, 116.56 behind) close to one day behind
Current Difficulty: 5646403851534.721XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 4911235687537 and 5168284870183
Next Difficulty Change: between -13.0201% and -8.4677%
Previous Retarget: last Monday at 6:46 AM
Next Retarget (earliest): December 18, 2018 at 2:12 PM (in 9d 3h 40m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest): December 19, 2018 at 9:38 AM (in 9d 23h 6m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 15d 7h 26m 4s and 16d 2h 51m 51s
Current Difficulty: 5646403851534.721XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 4911235687537 and 5168284870183
Next Difficulty Change: between -13.0201% and -8.4677%
Previous Retarget: last Monday at 6:46 AM
Next Retarget (earliest): December 18, 2018 at 2:12 PM (in 9d 3h 40m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest): December 19, 2018 at 9:38 AM (in 9d 23h 6m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 15d 7h 26m 4s and 16d 2h 51m 51s
gray line has us under 35,000,000,000gh!
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