Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 8.

Norm MacDonald

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 30, 2018, 12:06:38 AM

I think it does -16%

Which I will take.

I would welcome this as well as I do not believe the lows are in yet. Too many people running around proclaiming the bottom. I know that sounds trite but at this point "psychology" is a significant part of this equation.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Steamtyme on November 29, 2018, 08:02:30 PM

The last adjustment was a drop, which was very welcome.

Captain obvious but that 21 % drop would be sweet. My winter is now one if holding the mining rewards, so if we can make ground downward preferably in large leaps early on I'll be a happy camper.

I think it does -16%

Which I will take.

Steamtyme

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 29, 2018, 12:59:10 PM

we did a jump on the 16 of nov 640 pm

The last adjustment was a drop, which was very welcome.

Captain obvious but that 21 % drop would be sweet. My winter is now one if holding the mining rewards, so if we can make ground downward preferably in large leaps early on I'll be a happy camper.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

The -32% prediction here

Quote from: https://alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

Next difficulty retarget occurs at block 551947.0 (eta 0.0 sec): 4.36411761268e+12 / -34.4% [est.]

is not accurate and unlikely to occur

We will do -10% to -17 %

we have 436 blocks left to drop down to -32% we would need to do under 95 blocks a day.

we did a jump on the 16 of nov 640 pm

14 days later is nov 30 640 pm 0 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 1 days not happening

a 15 day epoch is 1/14 off - 7.1 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 2 days not happening

a 16 day epoch is 2/14 off -14.2 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 3 days maybe
a 17 day epoch is 3/14 off -21.3 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 4 days maybe

a 18 day epoch is 4/14 off -28.3 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 5 days not happening
a 19 day epoch is 5/14 off -35.3% this would mean we make 436 blocks in 6 days not happening

rifleman74

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4 s9's 2 821's

From BTC.com

Quote from: BTC.com

Next Difficulty Estimated
(-13.13%) 5.78 T
Date to Next Difficulty
3 Days 15 Hours

There have been quite a few fairly decent-sized farms that have shut down for now.

Norm MacDonald

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Quote from: tmfp on November 29, 2018, 07:08:57 AM

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?

While us Miners would like this, wouldn't this portend some very negative overall fundamentals? My guess is "no" because the massive size of the overall network. Anyone?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: tmfp on November 29, 2018, 07:08:57 AM

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?
At either estimate, the improvement in earnings must be an incentive to "plug back in" if that's what miners have been doing, or do you think that the BCash scenario is still in play?
Are coins like NMC more profitable?
Sorry for the non miner questions.

https://i.imgur.com/MFu2WhM.png

Something is happening behind the scenes.

I think real drop will be more like 16%.

I don't cover NMC diff rate I have no idea about it. It always was lower then BTC diff that is about all I know about it.

this site below is most likely most accurate current number.

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   551931 (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   86.0327% (1564 / 1817.91 expected, 253.91 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5726487111373 and 5766869514893
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.9302% and -13.3232%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2018 at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 10:31 PM (in 3d 12h 49m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 1:16 AM (in 3d 15h 33m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 3h 48m 25s and 16d 6h 32m 57s

tmfp

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"Common rogue from Russia with a bare ass."

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?
At either estimate, the improvement in earnings must be an incentive to "plug back in" if that's what miners have been doing, or do you think that the BCash scenario is still in play?
Are coins like NMC more profitable?
Sorry for the non miner questions.

philipma1957

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Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

price is moving up and gray line on graph below is moving down.

Looks like we will have the biggest drop in hash since I have mined. (2012)
Maybe 8,000,000,000 gh will leave network

that is 8,000,000,000/13,500 = 592,000 s-9s

Quote from: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,880,224,692,251 (-11.62%)
Adjust time:   After 464 Blocks, About 3.8 days
Hashrate(?):   38,652,732,067 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 11.8 minutes
3 blocks: 35.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.2 hours

MoparMiningLLC

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Quote from: sidehack on November 25, 2018, 06:52:43 PM

You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Mine were made in America - by a local shop that sells them to locations all over the US.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Cryptothis is narrowing the estimate

Quote

Current Pace:   88.1290% (1468 / 1665.74 expected, 197.74 behind)
Next Difficulty:   between 5866254237772 and 5917981329180
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.8294% and -11.0520%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 7:38 PM (in 4d 4h 17m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 10:59 PM (in 4d 7h 38m 9s)

We've just had another 11% but in the other direction when it comes to price so I feel tempted to say that the next period we will see an increase in difficulty, especially since it might match the shipping of the new bitmain gear. But that's again speculation, how much have they sold, how much they will send...

Still, I think we have reached the bottom.

I signed a contract for a guaranteed price of around 4.8 cents per kwh for a year last month....feeling tempted to grab a miner... Undecided

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: alh on November 27, 2018, 05:25:56 PM

Looks to me like the next change will be a definite decrease in difficulty. May essentially reset back to roughly the same difficulty as the end of July. This of course is all in the context of a big drop in BTC price (now roughly $3772).

yeah I am a bit torn as to what I want price to do. but a jump to 5500 or a drop to 2900 both work Grin

i have a .25 buy at 2903 and a .35 sell at 5497

alh

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Looks to me like the next change will be a definite decrease in difficulty. May essentially reset back to roughly the same difficulty as the end of July. This of course is all in the context of a big drop in BTC price (now roughly $3772).

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Still downward

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Current Pace:   87.5995% (1372 / 1566.22 expected, 194.22 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5831179756343 and 5905645710536
Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.3566% and -11.2374%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2018 at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:26 PM (in 4d 21h 40m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 6:17 PM (in 5d 2h 31m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 18h 42m 37s and 15d 23h 33m 50s

With flat cost of solar array this is okay for me.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: windjc on November 25, 2018, 10:44:31 PM

I’m not arguing your call although you predicted consolidation not a bubble bursting. But you were right about a top.

yeah I could not see diff going up anymore. but I did not fully see drop to 3450 coming I thought it would or could mirror ltc in terms of diff which it did.
I was not as sure about price drop to under 3500.

Sometimes it is hard to fully explain my thoughts in blog form as it can get to long and boring to read. But we are pretty much on the same page to a certain degree. I still see more drop in diff and maybe price goes down to 2700-2900.

I am ready for a price to down to that number or for that matter to go back up to 5000-5500. I do not see this year with a price that high.

Norm MacDonald

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Quote from: sidehack on November 25, 2018, 06:52:43 PM

The best part about the tariffs is, we're now punishing Americans for letting their parents let China take over global electronics manufacturing. The retaliatory tariffs China put on us are for stuff they can buy from 20 other places but we're taxing ourselves for spending 30 years telling them they should do the work instead of us. You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Of course the BTC economy is being controlled by China now. We gave it to them. We paid them hand over fist to take it.

Amen. Dead nuts on. If it wasn't so ridiculous, it would be hilarious.

windjc

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 25, 2018, 03:10:35 PM

@ windjc

the entire BTC/sha256 hash shift was called as perfectly as possible by my thread which started on OCT 4th which was the peak difficulty

[...]

I’m not arguing your call although you predicted consolidation not a bubble bursting. But you were right about a top.

Norm MacDonald

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There's so much brand new Bitmain Legacy S9I and J gear for sale stateside at really good prices. No reason to buy from China. My guess is all those COLO dreamers that were building out huge DC's to rent out space to cloud miners, are dumping the gear they scooped up earlier this year. I know of 3 different sources right now that I could buy over 20K various S9's brand new in boxes with PSU's for peanuts. ( Wouldn't do it if i had that kind of money)That doesn't include whats for sale up North in Canada.

Quote from: sidehack on November 25, 2018, 06:52:43 PM

The best part about the tariffs is, we're now punishing Americans for letting their parents let China take over global electronics manufacturing. The retaliatory tariffs China put on us are for stuff they can buy from 20 other places but we're taxing ourselves for spending 30 years telling them they should do the work instead of us. You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Of course the BTC economy is being controlled by China now. We gave it to them. We paid them hand over fist to take it.

Amen. Dead nuts on. If it wasn't so ridiculous, it would be hilarious.

sidehack

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Curmudgeonly hardware guy

The best part about the tariffs is, we're now punishing Americans for letting their parents let China take over global electronics manufacturing. The retaliatory tariffs China put on us are for stuff they can buy from 20 other places but we're taxing ourselves for spending 30 years telling them they should do the work instead of us. You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Of course the BTC economy is being controlled by China now. We gave it to them. We paid them hand over fist to take it.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Good video. Touches on the new tariff for USA buyers.

Or you could be like me I ordered 80000 in gear prior to tariff but it now seems I owe 2.6 % on all that gear. This goes back to 2013 in my case. I estimate I paid on 1/2 that gear.

So 2.6 % on 40000 could be a further payment I owe.

That is about 1000 not that bad. But. Part of the billing was done in btc. So back when btc was 400 a coin I spent 25 coins. That is only 10 k. Of the 40000 k I owe the tax on.

So what do I do if they say those coins are worth 4 k each or worse 20k .

At 4K x 25 = 100000 x 2.6% or 2600 at 20k a coin that is 25 x 20000= 500,000 x 2.6% that is 13000

So.
1000 most likely this bill will show up and is close to what I owe

2600 I would fight this as I know I don’t owe this

13000 I would fight this harder as this would hurt.

So for me how do i justify more purchases from China .

As I have an unknown debt 1000 to 13000.
A possible legal fight if billed wrong.
And if I buy from China now I will be subject to 27.6% on all new gear.

Take a guy like me and multiply this by 10000 since many USA guys do more business then me. And no one buys China gear.

Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 8. (Read 11916 times)