Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 5. (Read 11924 times)

Until he gets caught correct? I suspect the penalty for mining BTC in Venezuela is a bit steep. Unless he's paying corrupt Govt officials which is also a dangerous game. From what I've read and heard, mining BTC in Venezuela could be hazardous to ones health.

Mining for the big boys and for those with friends in the right places will always be profitable. I have a friend with a mining farm in Venezuela where electric is under .01c per Kw/h. Yes under 1/10th of a penny per Kw/h that is not a typo. They can mine for days down there while everyone else struggles.

Loving the drop in diff though my concern is if the hashrate continues to decline on BTC are we not running the risk of allowing  2nd chain to catch up in Log2(POW)  if an attacker has been "covert" building upon a 2nd secret chain could this not allow for a much easier 51% attack in the future if things continue to decline. 

While it might be a good thing for some in the short term the drop in hash and diff I think there is something we are missing here.

Well yeah  if there is 57xxx real hash and we are down to 36xxx real hash

21xxx hash is off line.  the simple question is  who controls it?

One player (bitmain)

and if they do control all that  plus a good chunk of the hash online say 9xxx of the 36xxx online they could be lining up the old 51% attack

9 + 21 = 30  which may be ½ the network.

they may be posing to destroy btc  next year and pump bch to the motherfucking moon.

this war is coming and lots of guns are lining up.

this is what some think is going to happen I don't think so at all.

beware of the

fud below

holders beware all your coins could be forked and lifted out of your wallets legally under a correctly done attack

fud by the way

we are still pretty low maybe 36,000,000,000 gh or down 10% from last jump.

but the gear is out there it is not being destroyed and we don't quite know what the move being done is.

I know I can think of quite a few moves being attempted but  not sure which one it is.

the gray line is still very low  compare it to the spike over 55,000,000,000 back about a month.

will sent a pm shortly.

Sent a pm.

I dropped hosting price to power cost to keep people from shutting down immediately because I need heat for winter. I was at 65% capacity by then already. I'm rolling out a USB hub that should kit nicely with NewPacs but it'll also be a good standalone product whose sales will be insulated from Bitcoin whims, but I'm getting a late start and having half my savings disappear in the span of a few weeks sure doesn't help. It also doesn't help that a lot of my parts now cost more than they used to, thanks Trump.

Phil, if you'd like a sample hub to play with and give me an opinion I can send you one.

I haven't done much mining myself in at least a year but even with the diff dropping, even if I could afford miners I wouldn't buy any.

yeah it has to be very hard on your business model.

I am down  from 400-600 a day last Nov-Dec-Jan  to 150 a month.

big drop for me.

Well whoever's doing it needs to take a break. Another thousand dollar dump in a week making a 50% drop in four weeks, sales evaporating, hosting customers turning off - I'm really not looking forward to going bankrupt and shutting down my business right after Christmas.

Bitmain via hashnest  there I pointed a finger or 2.

I agree on this. The diff and prices right now are heavily manipulated by someone (not pointing fingers here). But evidence does suggest that. Strap in boys, we're going in for  several months of turmoil. Hope you got your Fiat stocks ready!

BTC @ 3.5K$
BTC Mining stable at 37Exo hash.
Another diff drop of 5% in sight.

Guess it will be it until late Dec then up again.

Chain profitability war it is

OP well explained mining floor cost

Hey I don't want secret assets and I won't pay a premium to get them.

But some people want to do it.

So the answer is  yes  pay 4800 and keep it on the up and up.

Why not paying 4800 for a 4800 asset in that wallet?

Yes....terrible...to be sure. Don't do it!!

Yes, except if you were entering the mining game today you have long term risk of recovering your outlay that is predicated on price just like "hodlers" and on top of that you have risk of hash rate exponentially becoming harder.

So thats a second layer of risk.

Your bet paid off with returns as high as 90%. My risk paid off with returns in the 10 of thousands %.

Mining was brilliant once upon a time. But to enter mining today, you have to be someone who just loves the business and gets a kick out of machines, wires, power grids and cooling systems, etc.

I was in the music business for years. Likewise, I would tell someone who wanted to enter it, to only enter it if you HAVE to do it. If it makes you whole and happy. Because its a terrible terrible business.

I gotta say I love these calculations. hats down !

but there are 2 points that might play a big role in affecting the predictions.

1- the S11/S15/T15 .
these machines run about 40% to 70% more efficient than the S9s. indeed they will not make a 70% change in the calculation but soon enough tons of them will be up and running.

2- I have some good contacts with some bulk asic suppliers in China mainland, there are S9s by the tons that have been shut down, packed and waiting for a buyer. they are selling as low as 125$ with PSU ! .

one of the suppliers i know sold well over 7000*s9s a few days ago "Free On Board". ! which makes me think , somebody somewhere who is not in china have access to cheaper power and is about to start plugging back those S9s !.

now of course this could be a group of stupid rich kids who just heard about mining and are entering a business that will make 0 profit for them as many others do. but the scrary part of point 2 is the price ! a second hand s9 with PSU for 125$ is tempting! it can attract many investors to buy and keep the difficulty up.

again they could be buying them only because they are cheap and they waiting for a bounce in BTC price to start mining, but what are the odds than anybody would do this?

I know 7000 s9s are not a big deal, but the overall second hand market for asics in china will do just fine, they will keep dropping the price until they get rid of them, regardless of whether the buyer's business plan is successful or not. many if not most of the almost 1 million s9s that have been shut down can possibility return to service.

I do hope i am wrong and whatever thoughts i am having now are nothing but the result of eating to much lamb earlier.

Well I can earn a certain profit at mining.

Anyone with low power cost can do it.

hodl has no guarantee.

Risk is lower to mine if your power cost is dirt cheap.

hodl a coin has high risk.

So do I make a certain  10 to 20%  year after year  and once in a while  have a 90% year  2013 and 2018  were 90% years for me.

this year is about 3-5% year the worst I have had.