Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 7. (Read 11924 times)

A lot of miners run deals with power plants.

I worked on a 100 megawatt build out involving 5 power plants

the farm acts as a power leveler for 5 plants.  They get a good deal under 4 cents more then 3 cents.

It is a real need for power plants to be able to shunt excess power> I can't name the plants or the city they support.

But I live in New Jersey which does not have a city big enough to use 5 power plants.

Of course NJ is Near

Philadelphia
New YorK City
Wilmington

any of those Cites Have a power grid that would need to be able to shunt power during low demand.

So the support floor does exist for low numbers. It is real and it is world wide as many power plants use farms to shunt power  rather then turn down  the generator as it is costly to do that.

I could do a really long complicated set of reasons of why bitmain would lower diff but the simple one is they would love to dump every s-9 they can dump to power companies that want to shed off peak load.

To me we get the -15%
 we get the -10%
and price has downward pressure very close to 3000.

Then in 2019 we get a good bounce.

This is the best and most useful analysis on Diff, Coin Price and Profitabilty I've seen to date on any forum. Thanks Philip, your work is much appreciated.

yeah there is that  and then there was bitmain  running s-7's along side s-9's in hashnest.

At one point  I estimate they had 200000 s-7's charging power rates at s-7.  With no way to know how many of them were actually s-9's.

since  1 s-9  is 100 watts a th
and 1 s-7 is 250 watts a th.  the math is  150 x 24 = 3.6 kwatts  x 0.08 = 28.8 cents extra profit on every s-7 every day  or

28,800 a day if 100,000 of the 200,000 s-7s were indeed s-9's  this went on from May of 2016 to  Feb or march of 2018

say 20 months x 30 days = 600 x 28,800 = 17 million plus.

to compound this  have the s11 for sale on chinese website  it pulls 70 watts a th vs 100  so they could have done this from Feb of 2018 to Dec of 2018  less of a score maybe 2 million  all in 20 million plus.

Not saying they did it  but they had the opportunity to do it and it would be undetected  without proper accounting proceedures  of which I have scene zero evidence of existing.

So yeah a lot of shit is happening now.  Still look to be down around 15%  and maybe another down after that.

This also means price drop will not hurt 4 cent power guys.

So I now see -15% then  -10%  with a dip to 2800 usd a coin.

4 cent power at current diff breaks even at 2600

and turns a 11 cent a day profit at  2800 with current diif

but drop diff to 5,653,303,141,405  and  an s-9 makes 37 cents

drop diff to 5,000,000,000,000 and an s-9 makes 60 cents

many power plants  can sell commercially at 4 to 5 cents they use s-9s when they have excess power rathe then shut down the plants.

so 4 cent profitability is worked into the bitcoin system ie dropping to a loss at 4 cents is not acceptable for these power plants.

So with diff of 6.6 now the floor price has big support  in the low 3,100-3,400

but a diff of 5.5 will drop floor price to   2,900- 3,100

and a diff of 5.0 will drop floor price to 2,500-2,700

does not mean  we will drop in price to those floors  but those floors work for big 4 cent miners.

This is simply not true. It was an idle threat. The good "Dr." shorted BCH through swaps on the OTC market. This was all a very selfish and greedy, ego driven game of "whose weenie is bigger". Perpetrated by some of the worst actors in the space. They knew from the jump that all three would survive. It was an easy way to create another "shitcoin" and make an easy killing on Swaps trades. Here's how it works; I ( Dr. doufus ) lend you my long BCH position at $600.00 with an agreement to purchase them back at a later date. ( Post Nov 15 ). Mant hedge funds and speculators welcome the other side of this as Dr. Doufus's broker must give them a fat edge in order to take it. EG; if BCH is bid strong at $600,00 then we structure the swap to sell the asset to the buyer at $575.00. This gives the buyer the ability to hedge to position or slowly feed it to the guppies in the open market. Then Dr. Doufus starts spouting off like an insolent child about crushing BTC and a "fight to the death". BCH down over 60%. Boom. Free money and a brand new shiny shitcoin to call his own. Yes he should be arrested.

Following the hashrate trends I would say what @philipma1957 is saying is right we could see it continue to fall as there is no sign of the hashrate bouncing back right now.

above is a chart from 01/10/18 to 02/12/18.

@ yankees  if we drop 15%  to a diff of about 5,600,000,000,000

hash for that is around 40,000,000,000

Our current hash rate is about 36,600,000,000   that would mean a 10% drop  say to a diff of 5,000,000,000,000


but we know that current rate of 36,600,000,000 could go in any direction  so next jump is still a mystery.

Still a follow up jump/drop  down to 4,900,000,000,000  with 36,600,000,000 gh  would mean 

the peak of 53,600,000,000 gh would now be down to 36,600,000,000 gh

about 17,000,000,000gh/14,000gh =   1,214,285 s-9s pulled off the market  pretty amazing

In looking at the chart the grey line is below the blue one  which means we  will have another drop if it continues.

we are closing in on the drop  about 16-18 hours to go

$BSV need to pump his price to be more profitable to mine than $BTC or $BAB
Godzillatoshi and friends are crashing BTC prices to make it happen.

Juhan and Roger make sure they have the longest chain, need to drain hashrate to support BAB.

BTC vs BAB vs BSV mining profitability

https://cash.coin.dance/

I am in the same camp. Bitmain is in a very precarious position right now. Far over leveraged, New Tech bombing, sales tanking, IPO in jeopardy. Dropping massive Hash from the network is not a terrible strategy to plug some of their leaks. It's a pretty god way to kindle mining interest and possibly bring on some sales revenue. Right now their cashflow is a trickle and the weight of their inventories is dragging them under.

I am hanging in there hoping for  this to continue onward and downward 

I came up with a lot of numbers  and reasons to explain this.  My best guess is bitmain and hashnest are doing it.

1.5 days for the drop . btcwisdom is showing (5,702,705,853,580 (-14.29%)) . you almost nailed it.

i'l take 16% too   . can't wait to see another huge red candle, sideways market for a few months, more drop in the difficulty, and more BTC for me  

Wow....That's pretty invigorating. As in maybe, "turn a cartwheel" kind of invigorating. Thanks Philip.

see my numbers above I used a coin price of 4300

I'm getting around .98 cents per day net of electricity??

sure  give me 1 minute

14000 gh using  1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 6.653 diff coin price of 4300  makes 75 or 76 cents a day

 with diff drop

14000 gh using 1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 5.653 diff coin price at 4300 makes  1.17 usd a day

Has anyone been able to extrapolate what the -15% drop would translate into dollar wise of profit increase, say for a 14th S9 paying .045 per KWH?

I ordered an A921 last night  I will play with downclocks and run it in the garage.  It will lose money unless price jumps  but I will get some heat from it.

Last year I was doing :
7kwatts from the garage
my friends office was doing 1.5 kwatts
buysolar and I were doing 33kwatts from the array

about 41-42 kwatts
during the best months over 10000 usd a month profit

this year I am doing

3kwatts from the garage
friends office 1.5 kwatts
solar array 20kwatts
and a 4kwatt deal at 130 a month  for the 4kwatts that is about 4.5 cents

so power used is now 28-29 kwatts  and combined income under 1000 usd a month after payments.

Holding aside cash for bills from fedex dhl and ups. I am hoping for the correct bills (1000 or so)

we are close to -15%.

One good thing is I have 42th off line in s9's  and 20 th off line in the new avalon.  If there was a btc price move I could add 62th like that. this diff drop  puts me close to being able to add that hash back.

Some of the bills I've seen/read people receiving on previous orders is insane. Especially to get hit with that in the current market condition is like a gut shot.

It will be interesting to see if these low cost hardware sales have any lasting impact on Diff. I have to think that some of those borderline profitable companies might take the opportunity to grab directly from Canaan.

Those firmware updates are probably going to be a wash. The efficiency will help some people keep miners online, and others to put more online and still be profitable, but the few numbers I saw so far cut the hashrate down about 25% I think. This is also contingent on most people getting the information and applying the update.

-14.8 with 222 blocks to go, let's get over 15.

The effect of the 27.6% tax is a large part of this.

Believe it or not 2.6% tax which is being applied backwards has also slowed sales of gear.  I have ordered more then 80,000 in gear since 2012 sometimes I paid 3% as I was over 2500 which I thought was the exemption level. So of that 80000 I paid on 40,000 of it.  Which means I owe maybe 2.6% of 40,000

2.6 % of 80000 is about 2000
2.6% of 40,000 is about 1000  Since I paid on half the gear as I was billed on larger orders I owe on say 40,000 and paid on say 40,000

of the 80000 part of that was billed in BTC not USD  25 coins worth of gear worth 10000 was purchased.  Suppose they come back to me and say those coins are valued at 20000 each which was bcc's high point that is 500,000 which is 13,000 at 2.6% or they use the current value of 4000 which is 100,000 total that is 2600 in back duty tax> I know they were worth 400 and I can prove it  but I now have a possible tax fight on my hands.

 Best case Is I don't get any bills $0  

Next best Is I get a 1000 dollar bill which is close to what I figure I owe.

But a bill for 3350 could show  750 + 2600  it would be wrong I would need to fight it.
Or a bill for   13750 could show 750 + 13000 it would be wrong I would need to fight it.

what does that translate to?  no orders from China for the next year on my part.

Lots of people in my spot.  I suspect that many USA people stopped buying gear. We all know that USA mining is not that much but I would think 10% to 20% of gear purchased from China was sent to USA.  I would suspect that has dropped a lot.

This morning shows us down around 14 %