Topic: Will the GAW VAULTBREAKER Be profitable? - page 3. (Read 14299 times)

This isn't a seller's thread.  This is a person asking if the device will ever ROI.  It won't, so I answered him honestly, because there are still people in this world who believe being honest and being able to sleep at night is worth more than a few dollars. 

You seem to realize as well that these devices will never ROI, which is why you keep avoiding the very simple question he asked and instead throwing around random other points to distract the issue and vague, "but there are other coins" type statements. 

Incidentally yes of course we all knew who was making the chips in their devices, that isn't the point.  You walk into a computer store and purchase a computer that is labeled as 3.0GH with say 16GB of ram and a 2TB hard drive.  You get it home and it doesn't have any of those specs.  Do you take it back to the computer store where you got it, or do you get on a plane and fly to China since you know the computer store didn't actually build the chips inside it? 
To put another way, now you ARE the computer store owner.  You order a whole bunch of Intel 4770K chips rated at 3.5-3.9GH to put in new machines you build.  When you get them, you realize that they aren't in fact 3.5GH I7 chips but are instead Intel Celeron processors running at 1.4Gh.  Do you refund customer's money to people who paid in advance for the machines, or do you put the inferior chips in the builds anyway because hey, the manufacturer says thats an I7 so it must be an I7?
We all know based on past experiences what GAW decided to do, so it stands to reason should the new pre order machine not be up to spec, that is what they will do again. 

To reserve a spot? That's how pre-orders work. I personally don't like that reservations became the standard in the way mining hardware is sold, but that's the way it is.

No, I'm not - I'm using their sig for free and I'm not registered in their signature campaign.

Yes I find this to be a random insult. You should read people's sigs more often, a lot of them have links to sites they are using be it casinos, exchanges or hardware stores.

There's much more scrypt coins out there
Check this guy's post https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7813796


That's exactly the negativity I was talking about.

So you didn't know GAW machines were rebranded Zeus miners? I thought everybody knew about this, especially months after launch, you learn something new every day
Yes they didn't know that the chip specs they got from the manufacturer weren't right. If you order a new model of a car from the manufacturer you also believe they measured the power consumption correctly.

You made money selling hardware and then, decided to troll other seller's threads, thanks for sharing with all of us.

If Alpha-T don't ship , even then difficulty is increasing at high rate so whether they ship or not is not gonna matter much.

That was a ~ 16% or 100 Ghs swing this last week …

If you look at a chart of past network hashrate ( http://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/litecoin-network-hashrate-chart for example) you can see it jumps up and down in frequent intervals, as the large multipools jump on and off LTC.  

At the instant I write this, network hashrate is at 757.88Gh/s (an all time high), with the next re targeting currently set for 26,468 (in 2 days) up from it's current difficulty of 20,239 (a 31% increase) and climbing.   Current block time is 1:54 (targeted for 2:30).  
I'm not sure where you are seeing a drop off in hash rate but there isn't one outside of the normal, day to day fluctuations from switching off to alt coins.  

the companies that aren't mined out the machines are now shutting hem down and getting ready to ship

You probably ought to read the Alpha-t thread …  ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=314402.1840 )

We may need to adjust our ROI assumptions a little bit (again) ...

Judging by the 504 block average hash rate line, the LTC network has lost a lot of hash recently AND the price has moved up from the low 7s to 8.6 in the last few days. Did some big miner dump LTC and then turn off his miners ?

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty

Um, because that was the product that he asked about?  The price has gone down too.  And will continue to go down.  So I'll ask again, why would someone want to lock in a rate today when we know with certainty it will be cheaper tomorrow?
You have their ad in your sig.  You ARE getting paid for that, right? 
Well, this is BITcointalk.org, not LITEcointalk.org.  If you prefer to calculate ROI using litecoin, then fine.  The device costs 975LTC.  It can be expected to mine at absolute most, 300LTC and in all likely hood, a lot less than that. 
It can, but it won't.  And even if it did, you would have just been better off purchasing the coins directly instead of throwing away so many buying this machine.
Nice to know GAW doesn't stand by their products.  They put the machines together, put their name on it, and made sure all over their website everyone knew these were THEIR machines.  Now when they don't work right, all of a sudden they're someone else's machines?
Got it.  So GAW didn't actually do any due diligence before selling the product.  They just took the manufacturer at their word because hey why not?  They'll just blame the manufacturer if they don't work right.  Stand to reason of course, that they are doing that again. 
I do think you needed the definition, because by saying I am "calling you names", you imply you do not know what the word means and just think it is a random insult.  You ARE shilling for them; unless you are going to suggest you do not receive any sort of compensation from them?  That the sig ad is just because you believe in them THAT much?   
A.  They advertised their machines, when in the preorder stage, as being 1.2Mh/s chips consuming 12 watts per, plus or minus 10%.  They turned out to be 1.3Mh/s chips consuming 45 watts, plus or minus 10%.  You can get your calculator if you need to.
B.  I'm not negative towards GAW, you are just really defensive.  He asked a simple question, if the device will ROI or not.  The answer is no, not even close.  I then demonstrated some simple facts to illustrate why.  You then proceeded to attack me and quibble about minor points, throw around vague claims that such and such coin *could* go up in value, and generally do your best to confuse and obfuscate the issue, because my math is quite sound and it is indisputable that these devices will never generate revenue even remotely close to what they cost. 
I do not own any scrypt asics.  I did make a substantial profit selling scrypt asics though.  Given that revenue was dropping faster than the cost of these things, it made more sense to sell them (mining was just something to do while waiting for buyers).  I don't preach one thing and then do another.
I did not preach the end of scrypt mining.  I have no doubt that the manufacturers who build these devices and hence get them at cost (a couple of hundred dollars in the beginning) before anyone else gets them will make substantial mining profits thanks to your preorder money.  They always do.

Why are you trying to discuss the price of a product which is no longer there? And those are not MY products.
As I said you love to assume things about people- you are talking about me like I was an employee while in fact I'm a client.

This is a scrypt miner, people aren't going to mine BTC with it, yet you love to convert everything to BTC and count in this terms while in fact you have no idea which coin a buyer will mine and how much they will profit. Don't forget that a coin's price can double in a week. All of these calculations you're trying to do are useless because there are too many things you aren't taking into account.

My point with comparing Vaultbreaker to Zeus is that these are different machines. You seem to know a lot about their power consumption yet you point out that they had to be GAW products because there's company name on the case. Ever heard of rebranding? The chips inside were made by Zeus and the specs were also sent by them. Gaw copied the specs from the chip manufacturer.

No need to give me definitions - that's exactly why I told you to take a deep breath before calling me names. As I said your assumptions about me are wrong.
On the other hand you are either negative towards GAW (you seem to act like you know the industry, yet you say Zeus based miners used 4 times more power than advertised, which is wrong and trying to increase these numbers just shows your attitude towards them).


I wonder where all this negativity comes from? Are you mining right now and can't get ROI? Are you one of those people preaching the death of mining? Looks like it

Batch one, which was what they were selling when he posted this, was 8000USD or 12.7BTC.  Batch two which they are selling now for "only" 7000USD is not going to be released until one month later (when it will then generate half as much revenue as batch one's already puny amount).  You really should learn your own products
In any case, if everything is completed on schedule and this guy is the very first person in the world to take delivery of the thing on October first, it will generate about 3.5BTC to 4.0BTC.  It won't matter if he paid 12.7BTC or 11BTC, he will have lost a substantial amount of money.  But you're right, since one minor point *might* not be exact, everything else must be completely wrong and difficulty is going to magically go down  
8000USD=12.7BTC.  12.7BTC=8000USD.  You won't magically ROI by choosing a different form of payment.  
It needs to be in his hands and mining away by the end of July at the latest to have any chance at ROI.  They have stated the SOONEST it will be available will be October.  It isn't that hard to figure out, even without knowing the exact delivery date, since their earliest possible delivery date is WAY after any chance to ROI is long past.
A.  I doubt  the people stuck with crappy miners consuming four times their advertised power rating care who's fault it was (to say nothing of the people who couldn't even use the things because the larger units consume more power than the typical home circuit provides).  But in so far as blame is to be dolled out, the miners say GAW on the label, not ZEUS.
B.  They were reselling ZEUS miners, and now their reselling someone else's miners.  What's your point?
C.  *My* point was, that just because they are advertising certain specs now, doesn't mean it will actually have those advertised specs when the device is finished. 
Finally something we agree on.  Yes, everyone regularly reduces the prices because hashpower is constantly decreasing in value.  Knowing that the value of a given hashrate is going to go down, why the heck would you want to lock in today's rate when you know it will be lower tomorrow?
Merriam Webster's definition for shill:  to talk about or describe someone or something in a favorable way because you are being paid to do it


Incidentally, my favorite part about your shill speech is how you completely ignore the clear trend in difficulty and rate of return that I demonstrated, you know, the things that actually matter in determining if he ROIs or not, to quibble over minor details. 

Not only KNC , but Alpha-t and many other manufacturers will be releasing higher hash rate Asics  , so difficulty is gonna skyrocket  and giving current stats for future ROI is manipulative on part of sellers.

lol....

Well you are all forgetting one thing. GAW will let you cancel the order at any time or refund within 14 days, so there really is no risk. And if GAW lowers the price, I am sure you will get the discount as well. And it really all depends on if it beats Titan to market or not.

LTC difficulty is climbing 7% every 3.5 days and KNCminers haven't even hit the network yet.  If KNC delivery by end of August then I"m speculating that Difficulty will be around 50000 to 75000 by Sept 1st.

That means that the best case scenario is that if GAW delivers on Sept 1st it will ROI in 60 (worst case 100) days.  However if a lot of vault breakers ship at the same time then by end of Sept difficulty will be well over 100k to 150k.

So within 1 month of shipping if they ship on Sept 1st best case scenario is that Vaultbreakers will ROI in 133 days (worse case 200 days).

Remember that if GAW sells 1000 Vaultbreakers that will at 750GHs to the network.  The network is already at around 600 GHs.

You are introducing exchange rates to intentionally obfuscate the issue, most likely because you are invested in the GAW devices (i.e., company shill) and you know that.  
This device costs a certain amount of BTC.  This is a fact.  This device will mine a certain amount of coins, which are convertible to BTC.  This is also a fact.  If the device will mine less coins than it costs to purchase, it is poor financial decision to purchase it.  That is also a fact.  Last fact, the device costs 12.7BTC
The only real question of note is, will it generate more coins than it costs to purchase, or will it generate less coins than it costs to purchase?
Here is an interesting little chart which illustrates what I said earlier about the 2% drop.  It shows the average rate of return of 1Mh/s, measured in BTC (I chose BTC since GAW doesn't actually accept LTC; it works the same of course regardless of what coin you pick).
March 1:  0.01000
April 1:  0.00550
May 1:  0.00300
June 1:  0.00165
July 1:  0.00090
Today:  0.00073
So we can see that return rates have been halving every month since ASICS have been available for the general public.  From this, we can easily calculate that if we had one of these 750Mh/s devices right now in our hands, it would be expected to generate 26.07BTC.  A nice profit.  If we do not receive delivery until August 11th one month from now, our expected return drops to 13.49BTC, for a very small profit.  If we do not get the device in our hands until September 1, return drops to 8.78.  I think the absolute earliest they are saying they will ship these things is and of September, so let's say you get it October first.  Your rate of return will be 3.89BTC, for a device you paid 12.7BTC.  
There is simply no scenario where paying 12.7BTC now for a device that will return 3.89BTC later is a sound financial decision.  Of course these numbers are not exact, and will vary slightly, but the return rate isn't even remotely close to the cost.  And that assumes everything goes well and you get the device on time!  Such things rarely happen. None of this takes into account power costs which you will have to pay as well.  GAW's last pre order was a disaster, with the chips consuming 4 times as much power as they were supposed to.  
Another way to look at this is to just look at what is happening to scrypt miner prices on GAW's own website.  Every week there are substantial price reductions in the cost of scrypt miners.  But with this thing you are locked in at the current price.  A great deal for GAW to be sure.  For the consumer, not so much.  Why lock yourself into the highest price when we know for a fact that the price per Mh/s will drop between now and then?  

tl;dr

There is 0 chance this device ever mines anywhere near as many coins as it costs to purchase.

Yes , and that's the point I am making , investment in ASIC  doesn't guarantee profit as much as buying LTC. I am not against Asics but current monopoly of manufacturers ensures they are the one reaping most of the profit  . Anyways if someone believes in LTC , he can buy them directly.

There are many factors e.g. some people pay 3 times  more for electricity than others, while some have it for free, but you have profitability calculators for that.

When I bought USB miners in May last year most people were saying they won't ROI, but others still bought them and profited.

You forgot the difficulty factor ? ,  which is increasing at faster pace day by day for scrypt , so If you mine coins and the price stays the same you won't profit.