🐺WOLF.BET - Advanced Dice Game 🎲 Sportsbook 🏟️ Slots 🎰 - page 133.

deisik

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Quote from: ahmadakbari on October 07, 2019, 05:10:10 AM

Quote from: deisik on October 07, 2019, 04:20:48 AM

My question is not about profitability. If we take your example (10 Satoshi 10 million times), we will see winning and losing streaks of 10 satoshi at each step. Obviously, with 1.01x you will see more winning streaks than losing ones and vice versa (it doesn't really matter). So, will variance in the length of, say, losing streaks remain the same for both of these options? To put it differently, we will inevitably see outliers (like 15 losses in a row for 1.01x) but will their regularity, i.e. how often they appear (if we measure them in some relative terms to make them comparable for different multipliers), be the same?

You are right about losing streaks. There is no doubt probability of losing 15 times consecutively is much lower when you wager on 1.01x

Okay, I will try a different approach to convey what I'm particularly curious about

If you run 10 million bets on 1.01x, your average losing streak will be equal to 1 since it can't be equal to 0 by definition and it still can't be greater than 1 plus some small fraction since the chances of winning are pretty high. On the other hand, if you bet on 9900x, the length of your losing streak on average can be like 1000 (I don't really know, it's just a hunch and a number to show what I mean). But neither average tells us anything about outliers. Is the frequency of outliers normalized to some common denominator (i.e. variance or deviation from the mean) going to be the same for these two multipliers? That's what interests me so much

shoreno

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Quote from: ahmadakbari on October 07, 2019, 05:10:10 AM

So, in short term, betting on small odds is better. Because it causes you to play for a longer time (especially when you have not a big bankroll)
In long term, there is no difference. (Those gamblers who play for long term usually have big bankrolls and can afford to lose even more than 20 times in a row)

you said short term ? short terms means you play for a short period of time so your supposed to bet on higher odds so that you can win or loss quickly but betting in smaller odds is indeed good for smaller bankrolls so that you can minimize your chance of loosing but itll make you also play longer . loosing 20 times in a row can be acceptable or not depending on your bets . i can play longer but i dont have a big bankroll , its only a matter of bankroll management .

ahmadakbari

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Quote from: deisik on October 07, 2019, 04:20:48 AM

My question is not about profitability. If we take your example (10 Satoshi 10 million times), we will see winning and losing streaks of 10 satoshi at each step. Obviously, with 1.01x you will see more winning streaks than losing ones and vice versa (it doesn't really matter). So, will variance in the length of, say, losing streaks remain the same for both of these options? To put it differently, we will inevitably see outliers (like 15 losses in a row for 1.01x) but will their regularity, i.e. how often they appear (if we measure them in some relative terms to make them comparable for different multipliers), be the same?

You are right about losing streaks. There is no doubt probability of losing 15 times consecutively is much lower when you wager on 1.01x and that's why I said:

Quote from: ahmadakbari on October 05, 2019, 04:02:09 PM

Usually, winners of the contests are those gamblers who wager on small odds with high probabilities. As the total wagring amount determine the winners, in this way they can play for a long time and increase their wagring volume. They try to play with low risk and lose as little as possible.

Mathematically, your chance of winning is same in both cases. But betting on big odds can cause you lose earlier. As you see in the posts I quoted, I believe that betting on small odds is better for increasing your wageing volume. But it doesn't mean that increase your chance in long term.

So, in short term, betting on small odds is better. Because it causes you to play for a longer time (especially when you have not a big bankroll)
In long term, there is no difference. (Those gamblers who play for long term usually have big bankrolls and can afford to lose even more than 20 times in a row)

deisik

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Quote from: ahmadakbari on October 07, 2019, 02:57:01 AM

Quote from: deisik on October 07, 2019, 02:30:42 AM

I even wanted to create a separate topic dedicated to it but didn't dare. While it definitely looks like the odds don't matter on their own (as far as the house edge is concerned), can the same be said in respect to variance? I mean would variance remain the same for both 1.01x and 9900x if you used these payouts in a hypothetic martingale setup?

I ask you a question.
Assume that you want to bet 10 Satoshi 10 million times. Which one is more profitable? 10 million times on 1.01x or 10 million times on 2x or 10 million times on 9900x?
In all three cases you wager 1 Bitcoin totally.
Do you agree that in all three cases you are expected to lose 0.01 bitcoin?

But this is not what I'm asking

My question is not about profitability. If we take your example (10 Satoshi 10 million times), we will see winning and losing streaks of 10 satoshi at each step. Obviously, with 1.01x you will see more winning streaks than losing ones and vice versa (it doesn't really matter). So, will variance in the length of, say, losing streaks remain the same for both of these options? To put it differently, we will inevitably see outliers (like 15 losses in a row for 1.01x) but will their regularity, i.e. how often they appear (if we measure them in some relative terms to make them comparable for different multipliers), be the same?

ahmadakbari

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Quote from: deisik on October 07, 2019, 02:30:42 AM

I even wanted to create a separate topic dedicated to it but didn't dare. While it definitely looks like the odds don't matter on their own (as far as the house edge is concerned), can the same be said in respect to variance? I mean would variance remain the same for both 1.01x and 9900x if you used these payouts in a hypothetic martingale setup?

I ask you a question.
Assume that you want to bet 10 Satoshi 10 million times. Which one is more profitable? 10 million times on 1.01x or 10 million times on 2x or 10 million times on 9900x?
In all three cases you wager 1 Bitcoin totally.
Do you agree that in all three cases you are expected to lose 0.01 bitcoin?

Quote from: deisik on October 07, 2019, 02:30:42 AM

Statistically, variance should also be the same as long as the bets are truly random, but practically, it may be different due to various physical factors involved which make the outcomes not so random

We don't know the bets outcomes. As long as we don't the outcomes we cannot say which one is more profitable. So it is expected that both have similar outcomes.

davinchi

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Actually playing on higher chances of winning could be even riskier, because you usually win but when you lose you lose a lot.

So, when you gamble 1 btc on 99% chance to win, you will win most of the time but you may end up losing a whole 1 btc. Whereas if you gamble just 1k satoshi on 50% and martingale your way into winning, unless you go too many losses in a row you would probably make up what you lost, worst case scenario if you go like 4-5 losses in a row you can restart and wouldn't lose too much (compared to one bitcoin loss all at once).

That is why I think it depends on how much bankroll you have but in the end the higher odd method is usually is not really great all the time unless you gamble a whole ton of money all at once just few times in a row without gambling tens of times.

deisik

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Quote from: ahmadakbari on October 06, 2019, 09:41:35 AM

In the long term, there is no difference between betting on 1.01x and betting on 2000x.
As long as the house edge is 1%, you lose 1% of the total amount you wager. The odds doesn't matter in the long term

This is the kind of question which has been bothering me lately

I even wanted to create a separate topic dedicated to it but didn't dare. While it definitely looks like the odds don't matter on their own (as far as the house edge is concerned), can the same be said in respect to variance? I mean would variance remain the same for both 1.01x and 9900x if you used these payouts in a hypothetic martingale setup?

In more mundane terms, are outliers going to happen equally frequently (infrequently) in both of these cases? This is important. Statistically, variance should also be the same as long as the bets are truly random, but practically, it may be different due to various physical factors involved which make the outcomes not so random

Quote from: Bitinity on October 07, 2019, 02:20:44 AM

You may try try yourself with few hundreds/thousands doge to test the race and wager as much as you can to be eligible for the prize

With so little amount it's not going to pan out. I've been doing that for a few months already (since July, to be exact). And guess what? I'm in the second hundred (and never made it to the top ten)

Bitinity

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Quote from: finity on October 06, 2019, 01:58:09 PM

Is this site really having a 1000 usd race every single day? Anyone here can confirm withdrawing larger amounts from here?

How much is larger amount for you? It can be vary from different perspectives. Lets say 0.1BTC is a large amount already for some people but it can be something small for some other people. If you are asking about the daily race, yes they have it and there is no one complaining about it so far. It means that the races are real and paying the winners. You may try try yourself with few hundreds/thousands doge to test the race and wager as much as you can to be eligible for the prize.

Zicadis

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Dump it!!!

Quote from: finity on October 06, 2019, 01:58:09 PM

Is this site really having a 1000 usd race every single day? Anyone here can confirm withdrawing larger amounts from here?

The site appears to completely legit, I haven't seen any convincing scam accusations against them.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=83.0

Check this section and keep up to date. So far the platforms looks to be safe.

rexxarofmoknathal

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Quote from: finity on October 06, 2019, 01:58:09 PM

Is this site really having a 1000 usd race every single day? Anyone here can confirm withdrawing larger amounts from here?

It does seem so, races of $1,000 normalised to BTC with the prize split among the top 10 players. From what I can see, the race re-sets every 24h, a timeframe quite dramatic from the rest of the casinos. Is anyone else able to confirm this?

finity

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Is this site really having a 1000 usd race every single day? Anyone here can confirm withdrawing larger amounts from here?

WolfBet

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Sunday's Wolf Race has awarded another 30 players, congratulations everyone.

lupandina

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Quote from: suzanne5223 on October 06, 2019, 10:59:35 AM

Quote from: lupandina on October 06, 2019, 09:25:51 AM

What I like in Wolf.bet, is good betting speed and continuously improvements. I like, when new site is simply focusing at what they are doing and working, fixing/implementing new things regularly, instead of just talking "we will have *** soon!" without real actions, like some does.

What you just said caught my attention because the simultaneous improvement aspect of a project team plays a huge role in making the project flourish above its competitors but I would like to know how good their withdraw activities is cause windice withdraw are done auto/instant? Maybe I could try it out someday.

I've made 7 withdrawals till now. Honestly, I didn't check how fast it was sent, as I wasn't in rush at all

But as I've sent it to my main account in another site, which balance I'm checking pretty often, and I found funds there on next check all these times, I can ensure you, it wasn't longer then 1 hour. Or maybe even instant.

suzanne5223

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Want top-notch marketing for your project, Hire me

Quote from: lupandina on October 06, 2019, 09:25:51 AM

What I like in Wolf.bet, is good betting speed and continuously improvements. I like, when new site is simply focusing at what they are doing and working, fixing/implementing new things regularly, instead of just talking "we will have *** soon!" without real actions, like some does.

What you just said caught my attention because the simultaneous improvement aspect of a project team plays a huge role in making the project flourish above its competitors but I would like to know how good their withdraw activities is cause windice withdraw are done auto/instant? Maybe I could try it out someday.

ChrisPop

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Not your Keys, Not your Bitcoins

Got to say that Wolf.Bet user interface is one of the best I have seen in the industry so far. If you have watched other posts of mine you know that I am a big fan of the theme/user interface of the gambling websites and this website did a great job. Congratulations to the developers! I particularly love the darker gradient colors and that shiny "Roll" button is just too much fun. haha Now I sound I got paid to say this, but I assure you these are exactly my thoughts.

ahmadakbari

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Quote from: veleten on October 06, 2019, 06:28:13 AM

high probabilities bets i.e. 98% winchance and such are terrible , they only work as a means to increase your wager
it is incredibly hard to make profit betting 1.01x since if you win you only get 1/100 of what you bet , but you lose every 50 bets on average

In the long term, there is no difference between betting on 1.01x and betting on 2000x.
As long as the house edge is 1%, you lose 1% of the total amount you wager. The odds doesn't matter in the long term.

lupandina

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What I like in Wolf.bet, is good betting speed and continuously improvements. I like, when new site is simply focusing at what they are doing and working, fixing/implementing new things regularly, instead of just talking "we will have *** soon!" without real actions, like some does.

veleten

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Quote from: Lanatsa on October 06, 2019, 03:44:40 AM

Quote from: ahmadakbari on October 05, 2019, 04:02:09 PM

Quote from: jostorres on October 05, 2019, 12:34:38 PM

Weird thing is, he is not on the top 10 list, which means dude didn't wagered much enough to go to top 10 and still won or maybe he is one of the hidden ones but if he was hidden than we wouldn't see his big win, which means its unlikely that he became hidden later on, he probably didn't wagered much neither before nor after the big win, that is a huge profit in any calculation ever.

Usually, winners of the contests are those gamblers who wager on small odds with high probabilities. As the total wagring amount determine the winners, in this way they can play for a long time and increase their wagring volume. They try to play with low risk and lose as little as possible.

Common technique I shall say when it comes to wagering contest but this would only fit out for those who do had tend to deposit small balances
but if a certain big bettor or whale would tend to join up then those wagered amount you had reached will just be sweep out on few bet of theirs.
Lucky thing if they didn't have any interest to join in.

high probabilities bets i.e. 98% winchance and such are terrible , they only work as a means to increase your wager
it is incredibly hard to make profit betting 1.01x since if you win you only get 1/100 of what you bet , but you lose every 50 bets on average
because of the house edge , this kind of bets is when the casino is making money , usually
but if you have a big bank you certainly have higher chances to win a wagering contest

el kaka22

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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games

Some people have bigger expectations and some people have lower. From 25 to 60 in a month is not bad at all to me, I would even say it is great, not many people can manage to make that type of leap in any place. However if you are a whale and you have a ton of money and you lose it here, you may expect to see that go to signature campaigns and promotions and all that which would mean more users.

Signature campaign is great and all but could be expanded if they spent more money, they could have ads in many other places (maybe they do) basically all the marketing stuff I am not really knowledgeable about, they might be doing what I already talked about so maybe other marketing stuff. I think they are already good as it is, maybe they should just keep it up, but not all people would like the growth like me.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: ahmadakbari on October 05, 2019, 04:02:09 PM

Quote from: jostorres on October 05, 2019, 12:34:38 PM

Weird thing is, he is not on the top 10 list, which means dude didn't wagered much enough to go to top 10 and still won or maybe he is one of the hidden ones but if he was hidden than we wouldn't see his big win, which means its unlikely that he became hidden later on, he probably didn't wagered much neither before nor after the big win, that is a huge profit in any calculation ever.

Usually, winners of the contests are those gamblers who wager on small odds with high probabilities. As the total wagring amount determine the winners, in this way they can play for a long time and increase their wagring volume. They try to play with low risk and lose as little as possible.

Common technique I shall say when it comes to wagering contest but this would only fit out for those who do had tend to deposit small balances
but if a certain big bettor or whale would tend to join up then those wagered amount you had reached will just be sweep out on few bet of theirs.
Lucky thing if they didn't have any interest to join in.

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