Topic: Would people pour their cash into bitcoin given a stock market crash? - page 5. (Read 8876 times)

When people lose trust, they will hang out to what they can hold in their hand.

Gold is still the insurance of last resort.

The thing is there is a point where the jelly mould gets turned upside down and the impossible happens, the liquid has become a solid and everything is reversed.   It is possible, as unlikely as it seems for BTC to rise in an extreme case of instability.

People say if deflation they will print money, well they already have done that.  That liquidity is mostly stored in bonds now and the USA has one of the lowest average turnovers in its debt in the world.  I think its about 4 years. Why would that be?  well its cheaper.
  If you fix a rate for many years, it rises to account for unknown and short term to borrow we know the rate goes as low as zero almost.  So its been policy to hold 17 trillion or so on very tight turnaround.  

   The other people who did this were the banks in 2008, including Lehmans; if they had financed 20 year even 10 year bonds as their debt they'd operating now I think.  But gov is special right?  no not in the end.
So the question is flawed, not stock sell off, bond sell off.    Forex > Bond > Shares > BTC   Thats the order and trillions are held in bonds and you know its trillions because that debt is a populations burden, not nearly as much is held as shares and its mostly private debt.  They just go broke, a stock crash is not the dam breaking you might think it is

 The big deal is  and afaik always has been debt financing and interest rates, if that breaks down as well it might then BTC  can rise substantially and personally I think it will  ( so long as the network stays true till then)


If you look at the triangle, diamonds are quite high up.  Would BTC rise if diamonds had a price crash ?  Not really a comparable substitute or necessary with other levels stable.   But each level you go lower it gets more serious if it fails and the possibility for BTC to come of age and prove itself becomes greater, can it be useful and reliable or not
The chart was made by the Fed before they joined the dark side :p

I agree. Just to add something: The reason for a price deflation is a loss of trust in debt, that leads to debt clearing and hence reduction of the money supply.

The next step is desperate literal printing of notes, and of course the government will still loan in open and covert ways. The same goes for privileged businesses.

When the tide turns, we will have excess money supply, and probably some years of high inflation (20 % p.a.)

In the process, the production structure will be distroyed (capital allocated to the wrong things) and lower wealth for everyone. That means stagflation.

In case of a stock market crash, people are likely to divert their investments to safe assets. With Bitcoin being considered as one of the most unsafe assets, I do't expect it to have a net gain in the likely event of a financial and economic crisis. So we will see the reduction in the USD vs BTC exchange rate, although with higher than average volumes.

Your answer is on Exter's triangle and where can you place btc as speculative or utility I guess.    In a pullback or recession, people stick to the essentials.  Gold is only one of them as it is a solid asset, btc is a pretty flightly high velocity medium

We are hoping for that but there is some potential for money transfer or as a currency as well

Either bitcoin itself or an IMF crypto is likely to be used for international settlements and primary reserves 5 to 10 years from now.  It would be foolish to create a novel crypto, with an untested codebase and protocol, and place it in such a central role in the global economy.  Therefore, I expect bitcoin to fulfill that role.

intersting question but there would be so much chaos if that happened I'm not so sure it would work out that way right away. 

explode in the sense the price will go up tremendously?

bitcoin will explode just like what happened in cyprus
so will physical gold/silver

I don't see any deflation, we should have some and having 2% of official inflation is huge compared to having -3 or -4% but I agree that the price will rise as soon as we enter in the hyper inflationary phase that should start within 2-3years

deflation typically precedes hyperinflation.  in that scenario, expect bitcoin to decline during the early deflationary phase, and rise in anticipation of the hyperinflationary phase.

The USD will crash it is just a matter a time bc when it gets worse, the FED will print like there is no tomorrow

A lot of US companies are great and have oversea revenues and their revenue is still going to be strong when the US kind of collapse

Not so, this is one of the side effects of ZIRP & QE

People in cash or who are trying to regain lost wealth have no incentive to stay in cash as they are losing money (inflation higher than rate of return in bank). This is not a mistake, it is designed to re-inflate the bubbles. People feel good when their assets are rising and there are only two mainstream games in town; stocks and RE. The Fed herds people into this market & market participants know the Fed can't stop printing and can't raise rates, so big banks and many regular joes are incentivized to throw all they have at it, effectively double down. If shit hits the fan they figure they'll be getting another handout anyway.

And a stockmarket crash is not bullshit, it's just a matter of time. The US doesn't want a crash and will print til they can't print anymore. Whether that is next week or in twenty years is up for debate. The US is using Japans minor leagues playbook and taking it to the majors. Who knows how or when it'll blow up good and proper, but when it does, its sayonara USD.

we've been converting paper to assets for some time...
some money will go into crypto via the last ones out I'm sure.

#1, people have been predicting a stock market crash for years, and just like apocalypse predictions, or predictions about the return of Jesus, they are all bullshit.
#2, if people really lost a lot of money in the stock market, the last thing they would want to do is re-invest the little they have left in something they know little about. Their faith is investments will be waivering, and likely they will be more inclined to invest conservatively, except for the gambling addicts (which are probably the small minority).

Not a chance. traders do not go from one volatile market to another. Iff big losses they search for safe harbours...

Obama is counting on a collapse.  Collapse = civil unrest = martial law = elections suspended = POTUS indefinately.

+1 right? Obama is wayyyy too entrenched with Wall Street to let an epic crash happen! ;-) *jmho*