Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm) - page 5.

NotLambchop

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Quote from: oda.krell on December 19, 2014, 09:26:07 AM

...total no. of signals of this algorithm is simply too low to speak with much confidence about the results...

Quote from: oda.krell on December 05, 2014, 09:08:20 AM

Quote from: NotLambchop on December 05, 2014, 09:02:40 AM

That's the beauty of long-term trading algorithms--the longer the term, the longer you won't know how useless they are Cheesy

As opposed to high-frequency troll posters: Plenty of data points to conclude, with high confidence, just exactly how pointless the overall contribution is ^_^

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Here we go:

Sell @311 on 2014-12-19

=> USD loss of ~16%

You decide what to do with it. I actually begin to think the signals come in too late (on both entry and exit), and I'm very sure the total no. of signals of this algorithm is simply too low to speak with much confidence about the results. I'm trying to come up with a way to change that, but until then, as promised, I'll update the signals as is, until I manage to scale up the method to yield more data points.

Wary

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Who's there?

Quote from: keystroke on December 18, 2014, 03:40:03 PM

Don't feel bad! We were all free to evaluate the risks and the method used to perform the analysis. I for one trusted it because I thought your avatar was a unicorn but now I see it is just a horse with a carrot tied to its head. Sad

The truth even worse than that. It's not even a horse, it's a donkey! How could we be so blind???!!! And now we are ruined!!! Cry

Oda.krell, don't feel bad about it. You are one of most responsible members of this forum and you always supply your hypotheses with tons of warnings. And these hypotheses are really insightful.

EDIT: OK, it's scientific sin you were talking about. Well, you haven't published the article, so the disaster didn't happen. What's not on paper, doesn't exist.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

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Should probably clarify:

I'm not beating myself up over misleading you guys... I wrote several times saying "it's an experiment". Plus, this board is full of wrong predictions presented with a lot more confidence, so I don't feel guilty in that sense Cheesy

I am however pissed off at myself because, against my better knowledge, I somehow thought I can get away with the low number of trades over the history, and I plain ignored that I didn't manage to find a way to scale up the frequency like Ryn asked for right in the beginning. Big warning sign.

So, apologies for presenting sloppy methodology and being stubborn about it. That's the point I was trying to make.

EDIT: At its core, the mid-term momentum signal might even hold up. The problem is that the rest of the algorithm treats each of those signals as "new (mini) bubble incoming", based on nothing more than the 6 or so trade pairs it is trained on over gox+stamp's history, so instead of using the reversal of that time scale's momentum as a sell signal, the overall parameters are set to wait for the end of sustained rally that never happened.

okthen

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: oda.krell on December 18, 2014, 03:03:06 PM

Honestly, I regret ever posting this, especially in such a grandiose way ... "Wouldn't it be nice to trade like a whale? Why, now you can!" /Home Shopping Network.

I regret it, not so much because of the (possibly, likely) unprofitable signal it might yield, but because I've been reading up a bit on trading algorithms (nod to r/forex, some excellent posters in there), and it started to dawn on me how incredibly naive I was in writing up this method - first and foremost, for thinking I could avoid the problem that results from a low number of signals produced by the algorithm, and hence low confidence in the algorithm's results, by some handwavy 'independent reasons' that made me confident it is not overfitted.

I'll update, like I said I would, but more out of obligation and to give you guys a chance to make fun of it, like I mentioned on page 1.

Well, only time will tell how useful your algorithm is. Anyway, even if this time it means sell at a loss, it may still make you profit enough next time to make the loss irrelevant.

And please don't beat yourself up, because in any case this is once of the most interesting threads in Speculation these days

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: windpath on December 18, 2014, 03:38:37 PM

...don't beat yourself up about it...

^That. You didn't mislead anyone.

keystroke

hero member

Activity: 900

Merit: 1014

advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

Quote from: oda.krell on December 18, 2014, 03:03:06 PM

Honestly, I regret ever posting this, especially in such a grandiose way ... "Wouldn't it be nice to trade like a whale? Why, now you can!" /Home Shopping Network.

I regret it, not so much because of the (possibly, likely) unprofitable signal it might yield, but because I've been reading up a bit on trading algorithms (nod to r/forex, some excellent posters in there), and it started to dawn on me how incredibly naive I was in writing up this method - first and foremost, for thinking I could avoid the problem that results from a low number of signals produced by the algorithm, and hence low confidence in the algorithm's results, by some handwavy 'independent reasons' that made me confident it is not overfitted.

I'll update, like I said I would, but more out of obligation and to give you guys a chance to make fun of it, like I mentioned on page 1.

Don't feel bad! We were all free to evaluate the risks and the method used to perform the analysis. I for one trusted it because I thought your avatar was a unicorn but now I see it is just a horse with a carrot tied to its head. Sad

windpath

legendary

Activity: 1258

Merit: 1027

This was always presented as an experiment, don't beat yourself up about it... Thanks for sharing and I look forward to future updates....

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Honestly, I regret ever posting this, especially in such a grandiose way ... "Wouldn't it be nice to trade like a whale? Why, now you can!" /Home Shopping Network.

I regret it, not so much because of the (possibly, likely) unprofitable signal it might yield, but because I've been reading up a bit on trading algorithms (nod to r/forex, some excellent posters in there), and it started to dawn on me how incredibly naive I was in writing up this method - first and foremost, for thinking I could avoid the problem that results from a low number of signals produced by the algorithm, and hence low confidence in the algorithm's results, by some handwavy 'independent reasons' that made me confident it is not overfitted.

I'll update, like I said I would, but more out of obligation and to give you guys a chance to make fun of it, like I mentioned on page 1.

Cablez

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1000

I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...

But can any tool really predict the movements of organized nefarious players? Not likely unless they base their actions on some predetermined market criteria. If a tool could do this then there wouldn't be many nefarious players as they would be owned.

The usefulness of this signals algorithm will only be apparent after the next bubble peak, if any. So I guess wait and see.

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: Ibian on December 17, 2014, 07:05:44 PM

On the other hand, if a few big players are controlling the direction, what would they want to do? Confuse people, probably. Make a potentially useful new tool look like it failed, make elliomancy look like a scientific procedure etc. Doesn't matter, as long as we are around or above the mining cost everything is solid imo.

If the nefarious big players exist & manipulate the market,
and if the "useful tool" fails to account for their nefarious acts,
how useful is the tool?

Ibian

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1278

On the other hand, if a few big players are controlling the direction, what would they want to do? Confuse people, probably. Make a potentially useful new tool look like it failed, make elliomancy look like a scientific procedure etc. Doesn't matter, as long as we are around or above the mining cost everything is solid imo.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Eh, I'll be the first to admit, tzupy got his bearish victory in any case, unless we only go up from here, which is looking less and less likely tbh. Case in point for EW I guess.

inca

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

Tzupy perhaps you are taking the bearish victory too soon (most unlike you to be bearish, ha!). There has been no confirmation of a signal change from Oda yet.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

I aint sour. Life is too short

That and my average buy in is still way negative Wink

fewcoins

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: sgbett on December 17, 2014, 01:30:56 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on December 17, 2014, 12:54:43 PM

Quote from: sgbett on December 17, 2014, 11:32:02 AM

SAVE ME ODA!!!!

I know :/

I failed you and the others. But mainly, you.

Only one honorable thing left to do. Commence Seppuku in 3... 2... 1...

...

Didn't work. Damn you, layer of belly fat.

haha entirely unnecessary (allcaps=lulz). i knew exactly what i was getting myself into. still fine with my entry point. if there is one thing i've learned over the years there was always a better a entry point

the flip side to that is *everyone* else all claim to have bought at it ... *glances over at fewcoins*

Keep glancing at me boo! Kiss

I bought a couple hundred coins at 340 & went full leverage around 317~
This has been my target price for short term for a longgggg time & I have posted about it many times! If you're promise you aren't sour from buying since 800, I would say buy more now before the bounce

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

Quote from: Tzupy on November 10, 2014, 08:52:28 AM

In other words, oda.krell may have built a better bull trap that I could. Cheesy

I should be more careful with my jokes, sometimes they become true... Roll Eyes

OTOH I am grateful to oda.krell for accidentally helping me find a sig that I like. Cheesy

And I am still waiting for the 3d MACD divergence to turn red, maybe that will trigger oda.krell's signal flip.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Quote from: oda.krell on December 17, 2014, 12:54:43 PM

Quote from: sgbett on December 17, 2014, 11:32:02 AM

SAVE ME ODA!!!!

I know :/

I failed you and the others. But mainly, you.

Only one honorable thing left to do. Commence Seppuku in 3... 2... 1...

...

Didn't work. Damn you, layer of belly fat.

haha entirely unnecessary (allcaps=lulz). i knew exactly what i was getting myself into. still fine with my entry point. if there is one thing i've learned over the years there was always a better a entry point

the flip side to that is *everyone* else all claim to have bought at it ... *glances over at fewcoins*

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

^Have you covered our shorts yet? Let's do it now, before we're found out...

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: sgbett on December 17, 2014, 11:32:02 AM

SAVE ME ODA!!!!

I know :/

I failed you and the others. But mainly, you.

Only one honorable thing left to do. Commence Seppuku in 3... 2... 1...

...

Didn't work. Damn you, layer of belly fat.

Topic: Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm) - page 5. (Read 24722 times)