It's also quite obvious we continue with this downward pressure at least to mid September because of current development with the Red RSI in the 4-Day likely to win the race with the White Energy in the 2-Day. How long into September or October this downward pressure progresses remains to be seen. We'll know more by mid September. In the meantime, I would be very hesitant to create a margin long with low leverage just yet. One must also be hesitant to open a margin short position. If I were given a choice between the two and I was forced to choose one or the other, I would choose margin short on low volume . Where could the price potentially fall to? Well, the next stop would be the 50-EMA in the Weekly in my opinion; similar to what was done in August, 2016 going down to the 50-EMA in the Weekly during the BitFinex hack. It's possible it could fall down only to the 0.786 FIB ReTrace between $9,508 and $9,610. However, judging by how many margin longs compared to margin shorts we currently have on BitFinex; I would not be surprised if we fell deeper to around $8,2xx.
Appreciate your continued support and as always... Stay Awesome!
David
Thanks for your thoughts as always, David.
I've been thinking along similar lines. Short term support in the $9,000s and likely a fill of the weekly CME gap. The possibility is open that this could end up as a time correction that goes no lower than the $9,000s but if it ends up playing out as a sharp / price correction, I see room all the way down to the low $7,000s on the weekly chart.
My theory is the March-August rally is Wave 1 of a larger bullish impulse. Wave 2 pullbacks can be quite sharp and severe. A 61.8% retrace to the low $7,000s would be pretty typical. However, I would first expect a sizable bounce off the $9,000s given all the consolidation there during June-July.
That is not to say Wave 2 must go as far as the 61.8% fib. It could also be a complex, sideways correction that doesn't go below the 38.2% in the $9,000s. We'll have a better idea in a couple weeks as more price action comes in.
For example, if I believe a bullish Wave 1 is complete (as above) then I would expect Wave 2 to unfold either as a sharp 3-swing corrective like an ABC that reverses in the 0.5-0.618 area ($7,100-$8,200) or a complex sideways corrective like a WXY that reverses in the 0.382 area (~$9,200). Those would be the most common scenarios.