Topic: Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 30. (Read 12112 times)

Your office looks really nice. I’m envious.

In a couple of your photos, it looks like the overhead lighting is either dim or causes a glare against the screens. You might want to consider adding some under-the-cabinet lighting beneath some of your shelves. You can pick it up at Lowes and it’s relatively easy to install. If I can do it, it certainly should be no problem for you.

Thanks for all of the analyses you have done. I’ve been lurking for a while and always find your thoughts worth thinking about.

Hi Exstasie,


Yes, still leaving open the possibility for us to bust through the upper black trend line with authority.




I'm with you on that... DEFINITELY "NOT" a "flash crash."  Yes, we are meeting resistance on the diagonal AND the horizontal.  Not only the black diagonal trend line but also the purple diagonal trend line.  I'm not sure if we bust through that purple and black diagonal lines or not.  We have until August 14th in my opinion.  I'm thinking this current downward pressure is only for a brief period of time.




If we end up going to $14,780.60, it's quite doubtful we fall to my "other" 0.618 at $8,386.86.  In a prior chart publication I posted two possible scenarios.  If you click "Play" symbol on the chart, you will see the "Magenta" scenario is a "possibility."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/mSOMUpyS-One-of-the-Two-Following-Scenarios-Likely/

Interesting price action on that 6-hour chart. Looks like we didn't quite bust through that upper trend line with authority! Sounds like you're still leaving open the possibility though?

The $12K area looks pretty crucial. The overhead downtrend line, the .618 retracement of the downtrend, all those candlesticks to the left providing resistance from late June and early July: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52081857

Given the reaction to this level so far, I'm wondering if it could be an inflection point. I haven't quite given up on your bear scenario yet! Thanks for the updates, will check out your latest video when I get a chance later today.

A look at the Anticipated "dip" in the 6h TF:

NEW VIDEO Publication titled, "Dip Anticipated Soon BUT Upward Continues to August 14th at Minimum." - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6BcunnTq-Dip-Anticipated-Soon-BUT-Upward-Continues-to-August-14th-Minimum/

2-Day TF:

Hi FOMA,


LOL...  Unfortunately, we did not have the pullback I anticipated to $10,000.  Which is why I prefer to follow the indicators based on upward or downward pressure turns rather than getting fixed on a predetermined price target.  Price targets are more of a "guess" than predicting upward or downward pressure in a given time frame.


I'll take the time to do a new video publication within the next hour or two to provide my thoughts on this question.

i'm assuming $10k is off the table now?

not even a pause on the daily chart......no pullbacks at all. the long/short ratio is also looking scary. even during bull run times, we usually get some nasty wicks down to punish over-leveraged bulls. nothing this time. not yet anyway.....


any thoughts on what might happen if we bounce off that trendline rather than breaking through it with authority?

A look at the 2-Day TF:  I'll probably provide another video update later this evening.  I'm still doing some much needed work in my office remodel.

2-Day TF WITH indicators:



24h TF WITHOUT indicators:  The important thing to remember is upward pressure continues for a bit into the month of August before we go into one final brief bear trend in September to set us up to test ATH (All Time High) in Quarter 4, 2019.

NEW VIDEO Publication titled, "Part 2 - Focus on Low Time Frames, FIB's & Bollinger Bands Basis." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/UaLEu1Pe-Part-2-Focus-on-Low-Time-Frames-FIB-s-Bollinger-Bands-Basis/

Following are notes in the comments section of that video publication:

I will not be surprised if we come back down to the Basis in the Bollinger Bands in the Daily (24h) TF. Which is currently right at $10,000. My 50.0% FIB RT (Re-Trace) is also around $10,000 near the Bollinger Bands Basis in the Daily. I'm expecting this turn back downward to only be brief. Which means I'm expecting a return to upward pressure rather quickly. WHY? Because our Purple Energy in the Weekly, 9-Day and 12-Day time frames is nearing exhaustion and appears ready to turn back up to upward pressure very soon.

Will we go to higher highs when the Purple Energy in the Weekly, 9-Day and 12-Day turns back up? No, I personally do not believe we do. I believe the upward pressure will only continue for a couple of weeks at most and then we turn back down till some time in mid September where we will see the BEGINNING of a SIGNIFICANT reversal to the upside and test the ATH (All Time High) by end of 2019.

More charts (updates) will be provided to this publication over the next several days. I'll be sure to post an update approximately 24 hours AFTER the creation of a NEW 9-Day, 12-Day and 2-Week candle that begins on Monday, August 5, 2019. The indicators will update in those time frames on August 5th. When they do, we want to see if the Purple Energy has bounced (exhausted) and turned back upward for a brief stint before turning back down once more till at least to mid September.

I'll post a chart shortly with the FIB I focused on in the video.

Thanks for your support!

Stay Awesome!

David

NEW VIDEO PUBLICATION titled, "Part 1 - A Look at Higher Time Frames See Comments Section." - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pEz3MlUx-Part-1-A-Look-at-Higher-Time-Frames-See-Comments-Section/

These comments (below) are in the "comments section of the publication."

I'm following up with "Part 2" shortly to provide more details of possible price action during August going into September with FIB's.  The purpose of this publication in the higher time frames was to get an idea of where we may be during this period of Wyckoff Re-Accumulation.  It currently looks like we will not come down to find support on the 20-EMA in the 9-Day TF until September.  This also means we can expect the 20-EMA in the 9-Day TF to continue rising from it's current level to meet the price action candles when they come down to meet the 20-EMA in September in the 9-Day TF.

In the near term (Sunday or Monday) I do anticipate a reversal to downward pressure.  However, I'm not seeing a significant dip when it does reverse.  That dip may only last until Wednesday or Thursday; where we will resume with upward pressure once again until at least mid August.  This may equate to us simply going up and down from here until mid to late August in a relatively tight trading range.  I'll get into more details in the next video (Part 2) to provide an estimated trading range (high and low) during this time frame of re-accumulation that's remaining.

Stay tuned for Part 2 Video Publication to follow in about an hour.

Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!

David

Have a look at the Phoenix TSI Short Cycle in Bitfinex Margin Long Contracts:  This is another reason WHY $10,500 was the price we went up to "...at worst."  I'm actually not surprised to see us continue going higher.  We could go up to $12,500 but I'll provide further details later this evening.

Yes, I know... quite a move to $12,500 from current location.  I'll provide a NEW Video publication later this evening.  Probably in a couple of hours.  Here's the 24h TF with a few text bubbles while you wait.

$10,500 to $12,500 is quite a large range! Looking forward to your next video. I was expecting an eventual push into the $12,000s as the high time frames correct, but honestly thought we would dip below $9K first. I didn't find that low volume double bottom off $9,100 very convincing. Too bad!

Still looking for an eventual test of the 20-week EMA? If we go to the $12,000s now I reckon it'll be much higher than the $8,300s by the time that happens.

Hi Exstasie,

I saw $10,500 coming "at worst."  Meaning, "at minimum."  We've already reached that $10,500 price point.  We still have a CHANCE for more upward price movement.  I'm going to create another video publication later today or this evening to elaborate on possibilities.  It's very possible we could go up to $12,500.  Again, I'll elaborate on that later today or this evening.  If we do end up going to $12,500 or higher, that will make me wonder if a large percentage of the margin long contracts are "fake" contracts.

David, thanks for the updates.

It's all taking a bit longer than I originally anticipated. What price action would you look for to invalidate the $8,300s target? If we start holding convincingly above the $10,235 pivot then I'm inclined to think lots of sellers have been trapped.

For now, my 4-hour indicators are dangerously high (for bulls) considering how little upside we've seen. So I'm still leaning bearish and waiting out this bounce.

Here's the 12h TF:

Simply providing my Bitcoin History Using Wyckoff Method to show how I anticipate the Orange 20-EMA to act as "Last Point of Support" on this "Back-Up" (Shake-Out).

We need to test this Red 20-EMA in the Weekly TF to spook away a lot of the margin long contracts on BitFinex and to lull in some margin short contracts.  This is why I anticipate this current bout of upward pressure to only be brief and NOT to be a significant move upward.