Topic: Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 27. (Read 12112 times)

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Let's NOT assume we MUST fall into Distribution in a similar way to 2014 and 2018 "IF" we have Weekly Candles CLOSE BELOW the 21-EMA.  I'm about to provide an example WHY I prefer to use the 4-Day over the Weekly.  However, I'm using the 80 and 90 EMA in the 4-Day instead of the commonly used 20 or 21 EMA in the Weekly.

Here's the Weekly:  The text bubbles are self explanatory in each chart.  The Red Dots in the Weekly Chart is the 21-EMA



Here's the 4-Day:  The text bubbles are self explanatory in each chart.



ALSO NOTE how the White 200-MA in the Daily (24h) was broken by a couple of candles in 2013.  Yet, we did not fall into a prolonged period of Distribution like we did in 2014 and 2018.

Hi FOMA,  

Yep, we got that spring off the 200dma.

Hard to say if we get that other spike into the upper $7k's. Maybe...  I feel pretty good about that 80-EMA and especially, the 90-EMA.

Also NOTE the month of October DURING A BULL (Accumulation) Trend; NOT during Distribution like we have seen in 2014 Distribution and 2018 Distribution. We are in ACCUMULATION Schematic. Only one time have we seen a bearish month of October during Accumulation. That was in 2012.

could be but i'm with ya---unlikely.

i was expecting a spring off the 200dma here but instead, all this momentum on the 1h-2h time frames is being squandered. halfway towards exhaustion while we just hover above the lows. stagnant, not what i hoped to see.

so indeed we might need another spike down into the $7000s. it'll likely get bought up pretty hard though. then the bottom sellers will start chasing!

Will We Make History Falling Below 90-EMA in 4-Day TF    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3EAyao7n-Will-We-Make-History-Falling-Below-90-EMA-in-4-Day-TF/

Here's some more information:  We have just seen our "Backup/Last Point of Support" in my opinion.  Which means we are about to make the transition from Phase D into Phase E.  This link provides a BRIEF insight on the BASICS of Wyckoff Method: https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

2012 Accumulation Schematic With Description of each Phase:



2015 Accumulation Schematic With Description of each Phase:

Our "Back-Up/Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS) Event marks the completion of Phase D. Which means we are about to have our transition into Phase E once we see our "Sign of Strength."

The BitFinex Hack of July, 2016 had the Yellow 90-EMA in the 4-Day act as support.  It was the Magenta 80-EMA during the consolidation in 2013 before the run up to $1,163.  I believe the Magenta 80-EMA in the 4-Day was likely it for present day.

Th Daily (24h) 200-EMA acting as SOLID support in my opinion:

Posted this VIDEO Publication on TradingView close to an hour ago.

"80-EMA in the 4-Day TF is Likely Bottom When Comparing History."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/PDuZPO5w-80-EMA-in-the-4-Day-TF-is-Likely-Bottom-When-Comparing-History/

I had several people post comments in comments section on that video publication shortly after posting it.  I had to respond to them first before coming over here to post the video.

I'm looking forward to when my website is LIVE so I can have a LIVE STREAM going; which would be IDEAL in cases like this for me to communicate with my subscribers.

90m TF looks ready to go up VERY soon in Godmode.

I'm leaning towards that 0.618 we just got closed to.  I'm going to do a video shortly.

Brutal price action! We sliced right through that 40-EMA like butter. Looks like longs are finally going to be squeezed after all. Bitstamp just nearly tagged $8,500 so that 0.618 level in the $8,300s / the 70-EMA is now in play.

Exciting times! I'm thankful for the buying opportunities and glad I didn't start DCA yet. What are your thoughts?

In the Weekly TF, we see the Red 21-EMA currently sitting at $9,339 price level at this writing. It could be falling just a bit while I'm writing. The current price level of the Weekly 21-EMA is currently in between the 30-EMA and 40-EMA in the 4-Day TF; which is shown in the 4-Day chart provided a couple posts above.

Shorts have closed the gap some with the Longs since August 19th.  We still have a LOT more Longs than we do shorts.

BTCUSD BitFinex (Top); BTCUSD BitFinex Short Contracts (Middle); BTCUSD BitFinex Long Contracts (Bottom):

30-EMA in the 4-DAY time frame was just crossed for a bit. It's my opinion that buy orders should have been scattered from the 30-EMA down to the 40-EMA.

Yes, you can consider scattering more buy orders between the 40-EMA and the 50-EMA in the 4-DAY time frame and even between the 50-EMA and 60-EMA. If buy orders between EMA's at lower price levels do not get filled, you can always jump in with your remaining capital you intend to use for trading and/or investment once it begins shooting upward. However, you may want to set alarms and adjust the price levels of the alarms accordingly as the price moves up and/or down.

Here's the Daily with indicators shown:

30-EMA in the 4-Day TF currently at $9,685 and 40-EMA in the 4-Day currently at $9,229. This is the price range I mentioned scattering buy orders. I also mentioned if we do not see the price come down even to the 30-EMA ($9,685) by end of day on September 26th, we may need to seriously consider slowly buying back in before legging up without pushing the price up too much to get your coins as cheaply as possible.

Here's the 4-Day TF with the Gray 40-EMA currently at $9,229 and the 30-EMA currently at $9,685.



Here is the Daily to show the 200-MA:



Still looks like we may have a decent chance for reversal to upward pressure and change of trend from bear to bull between September 26th and September 30th.

You may be right... We may not see the 40-EMA in the 4-Day TF but it's going to be close.  ; )

By the way, here's a NEW VIDEO PUBLICATION; titled, "Let's Talk Price Action & Trading Strategy With Alts & Bitcoin."  Be SURE to checkout comments section...  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/UUnZkG8A-Let-s-Talk-Price-Action-Trading-Strategy-With-Alts-Bitcoin/

I'm going to go ahead and paste what's in the comments section below:

First off, please feel free to share your thoughts on what you've heard and seen in this video. There may be something I haven't considered or did consider but forgot to elaborate on it due to time constraints. Many on YouTube, TradingView Cryptocurrency Chat Room, Twitter , etc... are saying, "Alt season is about to begin." HOWEVER, it may not begin the way some are thinking. Many may grow impatient as they see BItcoin/USD going up in USD value while their Altcoin is remaining flat in USD value and their Altcoin is also going DOWN in Bitcoin value. Many may get liquidated while trading Altcoin/Bitcoin pairs with leverage; because they assume their Altcoin/Bitcoin pair is going to go up. It simply may not go up at the particular time they want it to go up.

Keep in mind... The ONLY Altcoins I'm referring to in this publication are those which are traded in BOTH USD -AND- Bitcoin . I'm NOT referring to Altcoins that are traded ONLY in Bitcoin .

#1 - Expecting Altcoin/USD pairs to fall WITH Bitcoin/USD over the next several days. Don't be alarmed... Anticipate higher lows for Altcoin/USD pairs.
#2 - Expecting Altcoin/USD pairs and Bitcoin/USD to come up together near CURRENT price level at a very similar percentage.
#3 - Once Altcoin/USD pairs and Bitcoin/USD all get back to similar price levels to where we have just fallen from, we can anticipate Altcoin/USD pairs to remain flat (sideways)
While Bitcoin/USD begins going up.
#4 - Altcoin/BTC pairs will begin falling as Bitcoin/USD goes up and Altcoin/USD pairs remain flat. This is where I would want you to sell 20 to 30 percent of your Altcoin(s) for
Bitcoin along with the whales. At this point your Bitcoin you obtained by selling some of your Altcoin for those Bitcoins SHOULD be going up in USD value WHILE your Altcoin(s)
are remaining flat in USD value.
#5 - You were still holding on to 70 to 80 percent of your Altcoins you bought at a nice low price while selling the other 20 to 30 percent for Bitcoin by simply trading your Altcoin
for Bitcoin just before the Altcoin/Bitcoin pair(s) begin to drop in BTC value.
#6 - Once Bitcoin reaches $11,700, we should begin to have a close look at the indicators to see WHEN Bitcoin/USD will have a correction after hitting resistance. That resistance
may be around $13,800. Once Bitcoin/USD encounters heavy resistance to have a shakeout before continuing up to test All Time High by year end, we may want to consider
using that Bitcoin to buy back Altcoins at a lower BTC price on the Altcoin/Bitcoin pair(s). This way, you will have accumulated more Altcoin(s).
#7 - Once you bought back your Altcoin(s) with your Bitcoins at a lower BTC price, you will have accumulated more Altcoin(s) -AND- THAT is when the Altcoin is likely to go up
in both USD value -AND- BTC value. It may go up MORE in BTC value (percentage wise) than it does in USD value at that point.
#8 - Bitcoin/USD will eventually complete it's correction AFTER the Altcoin/USD pairs have legged up to a new higher trading range after a rather long period of sideways price action.
Which means Bitcoin/USD will resume going up to test All Time High after that correction that may begin at $13,800.
#9 - Anticipate Altcoin/USD pairs to a little more than double their lows in a similar fashion as Bitcoin/USD. This puts Bitcoin/USD testing All Time High by year end. However, this
does NOT put Altcoin/USD pairs testing their All Time High by year end. Altcoin/USD pairs will not test their All Time High until later in 2020. Possibly the June of 2020.
10 - Be prepared to sell some Altcoin(s) and/or Bitcoin at or near their high near year end of 2019 to setup buying back in at a lower price in early 2020. However, PLEASE consider
keeping a significant amount (At least 50%) of your coins OFF exchange in cold storage during this time while using the remainder to make the previously mentioned trades.

Please feel free to comment, like and subscribe (follow).

Stay Awesome!

David

I feel it too. The time is getting near. A few weeks tops, probably less. It's going to be a hell of a year end! I'm also getting the feeling we won't see that 40-EMA. Buyers are absorbing every dump in sight.

Maybe one more undercut of the lows to the ascending trend line ~ $9,500......if we're lucky!

NEW VIDEO PUBLICATION, titled, "Consider Scattering Buy Orders Between 30 & 40 EMA in 4-Day TF."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/W1lte82K-Consider-Scattering-Buy-Orders-Between-30-40-EMA-in-4-Day-TF/


Go to the 4-Day TF for your exchange and add the following indicators:  30-EMA and 40-EMA.  Once you see the current price for the 30-EMA and 40-EMA IN THE 4-DAY TIME FRAME (TF), I recommend scattering buy orders between those two EMA's in the 4-Day TF.  Of course, this is MY OPINION.  If we have not made it to or below the 30-EMA in the 4-Day TF by September 26, 2019.  I would consider slowly buying coins at whatever the price is at that particular time.  Why?  Because Composite Groups (Whales) may not allow it to go much lower again.

The following is an update on my office remodel:

Here is a view of the wall with new base cabinets I made to place a countertop on.  I also made that sliding drawer for my keyboard, mouse, etc...  I also made and painted all the shelving like I did the base cabinets.  I still need to make doors for the base cabinets but I'll do that later in the future.  



Here is a closer view of the sliding drawer.  I still have a couple of things to mount and wire up.  Such as my 1080p webcam and Elgato Stream Deck.  You also see a 15 inch MacBook Pro I placed there to give you perspective of the size of the 55 inch 4K TV's.  




Here's a photo of the PC build underneath the sliding drawer with keyboard and mouse.  It's nothing fancy but it gets the job done with those three 55 inch 4K TV's.  I have one more PC build to do similar to that one with the exact same case.  It will go underneath another countertop you will see shortly.

 

Here's a photo of my Allen & Heath ZED 12FX mixer.  You also see my Sennheiser wireless mic receiver hooked up to the mixer; as well as my transmitter with a cord to unravel with a small mic to go on the lapel of my shirt or jacket during educational videos, LIVE streaming, etc...  



Here is a view of my entire "L" shaped glass desk I bought in 2000 with three 27 inch Thunderbolt displays.  Two of those displays are connected to a Late 2013 Mac Pro desktop that looks like a black trash can.  The other display is connected to a Late 2012 Mac Mini.  I still need to do more wire management under the glass desk and add a sliding drawer under the Mac Mini for its keyboard and mouse.  You also see I mounted a shelf on the wall to place my Epson printer.  



I have one more PC build to do that will be very similar to the PC build you saw underneath the large counter top with base cabinets.  The next PC build will cover up that square opening you see in the wall underneath the short counter top.  I mounted that countertop with heavy duty "L" brackets.  It's not going anywhere.  I need to get two more 27 inch monitors -OR- two more 55 inch 4K TV's to place on or mount above this countertop mounted to the wall.  



Simply another view of the office as walk through the entrance door to the office: