Topic: Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 29. (Read 12112 times)

Holy shit that's some major info 
Need to take some time to sit down and interpret it.

I have done some trading in bitcoin but I figured out that stop losses can kill you.
If you look at the current graph that red dildo will get you stopped out and if it is followed by a green dildo you lost major money.

A technique I thought up which I would consider is anomaly trading. When a big dildo hits open a trade in opposite direction. Good chance the market will correct and give you direct profits.

Pardon the delay... It took a bit to put all of this together in writing.  I needed to get this information together anyway as "content" for my website.  Your question only motivated me to go ahead and put a rough draft together.

Without giving too many details for personal privacy:

The best way in my opinion is to trade using a 3rd party via API.  However, it's IMPORTANT to make sure the 3rd party you use to trade via API is just as intuitive as if you were actually on the exchange.  But MOST IMPORTANT is the 3rd party you use via API also has a TRAILING STOP FEATURE.  A "trailing stop" is the best tool one can use to keep losses small and gains large when trading in certain time frame ranges other than "High Long Term Trend Trading."  There are other advantages for U.S. residents using a 3rd party not located in the U.S. via API.  I won't elaborate on that anymore.  

The terms I use (below) for different TYPES of trading are my own.  It's my way of being more descriptive (specific) to make sure you understand as much as possible.

I do several different types of trading in multiple time frame ranges.  For example:

Let's assume you have $100,000 in TOTAL FIAT CAPITAL and have the TIME to "Day Trade."  Let's also assume you have the KNOWLEDGE, TOOLS (indicators and 3rd Party API w/Trailing Stop) and EXPERIENCE to Day Trade using the multiple time frame RANGES I've mentioned below.  Let's assume you have multiple 24 inch or larger monitors to constantly monitor MULTIPLE crypto-currency pairs.  Let's assume you will trade ONLY the top 10 crypto/USD or crypto/USDT pairs by market cap with your $100,000 in FIAT (USD).  Let's divide that $100,000 of TOTAL FIAT CAPITAL by ten among those Top 10 crypto/USD pairs by market cap.  

NOW divide $10,000 of TOTAL FIAT CAPITAL for each crypto asset into percentages shown for time frame trading ranges shown below.  Example:
HLTTT for BTCUSD @ 70 Percent = $7,000 to buy at or near the bottom of a major dip in the indicators in the 9-Day time frame or higher time frame; depending on where we are in the 2-Week and Monthly time frame.
LTTT for BTCUSD @ 15 Percent = $1,500 to buy at or near the bottom of a major dip in the indicators in the 3-Day or 4-Day time frame.
MTTT for BTCUSD @ 10 Percent = $1,000 to buy at or near the bottom of a major dip in the indicators in the 4h and/or 6h time frame.
HTFS & LTFS @ 5 Percent = $500 to use for scalping with low leverage or no leverage at all.  Market conditions shown by the indicators will determine if you use that $500 for HTFS -OR- LTFS.

Now do the same thing for LTCUSD, BCCABC, XRP, EOS, ADA, ETH, etc... in regards to the percentage of $10,000 for each of those crypto assets if you had a TOTAL FIAT CAPITAL of $100,000.  Keep in mind this is intended ONLY to be an example.  Your hardware setup may only be able to help you efficiently monitor and trade 3 or 4 crypto asset pairs and your experience may only allow for 3 or 4 crypto asset pairs.  If that's the case, divide your TOTAL FIAT CAPITAL by 3 or 4 instead of 10 provided by my example.  Ten crypto assets may be too many crypto-currency pairs for you to monitor at one time in the beginning.  Which means it may be better to get organized monitoring and trading less than ten crypto currency/USD pairs in the beginning to grow accustomed (comfortable) with using all the tools you have created or put in place to implement your trading strategy.  Maybe you feel more comfortable starting out monitoring and trading only 3 or 4 crypto/USD pairs as you grow accustomed to, build upon and improve your trading strategy for those pairs.

How do we know if and/or when we are "accustomed" (comfortable) with our trading/monitoring strategy with 3 or 4 crypto/USD pairs and can move up to implementing our trading strategy on more than 3 or 4 crypto/USD pairs?  One good way of answering this question is to WAIT for a fast dump of 6 percent or more within a 4 hour span of time.  You will find out real quick if you are "accustomed" (comfortable) with your trading/monitoring strategy for several pairs you are trading if there was a dump of 6 percent or more within a 4 hour span of time.  Especially, if you did not have a stop loss or trailing stop on those pairs.  Did you have access to your 3rd party API and/or exchange during the dump?  Did you have alarms in place and the ability to hear and/or get alarm notifications in an efficient and timely manner in order to know you need to get access to your 3rd party API and/or exchange?  Did you have multiple monitors to EASILY see ALL of your crypto assets on individual charts (windows) and the mental fortitude to deal with possible stress experienced during the 6% or more drop?  Did you stay mentally composed in order to accurately read the indicators in multiple time frames EASILY on MULTIPLE monitors for EACH crypto asset during the dump in order to make a properly informed decision of what to do next?  Did you have MULTIPLE plans prepared in your mind and/or on paper to implement if such an event were to occur?  Did you have the mental and emotional fortitude to implement one or more of those plans on each crypto asset in an efficient and timely manner during that dump event that occurred within a 4 hour span of time?  etc...  By the way, this scenario of a dump occurring during a 4 hour span of time was provided as an example for one who is an aspiring "Day Trader" [With the TIME to be a Day Trader] who was "Mid Term Trend Trading" (MTTT) using the 45m, 60m, 90m, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h, 8h, 10h and 12h time frames with the 4h and 6h as a compass.  If you were familiar with my indicators, you would know what I mean by saying the 4h and 6h time frames were used as a "compass."

High Long Term Trend Trading (HLTTT):  
Lowest and Highest TF's used in HLTTT:  Weekly is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in HLTTT and Monthly is the HIGHEST TF in HLTTT.  
Common TF's used in HLTTT:  Weekly, 9-Day, 12-Day, 2-Week, 16-Day, 21-Day, 25-Day and Monthly.
Time Frame(s) is used as a Compass Majority of the Time in HLTTT:  9-Day Time Frame.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in HLTTT:  Two (2) trades every 3 to 4 years in crypto markets.  Can vary in other markets.
Capital Safeguards for HLTTT:  Once bought on exchange, immediately take off exchange and store in cold storage.  When selling immediately buy gold and/or silver to hold till approximately a month or two before reversal from Distribution (Long Term Bear Trend) to Accumulation Phase before a long term bull trend begins.  NEVER leave large amounts of capital in anyone else's control other than yourself.  Which means I do not put large sums of capital in the bank, deposit box, etc...  I often sell my gold locally and on eBay.  When shipping gold, ALWAYS ship via UPS (United Parcel Service) WITH insurance and DIRECT signature required.
Percentage of capital used for HLTTT:  70 Percent.

Long Term Trend Trading (LTTT):
Lowest and Highest TF's used in LTTT:  12h is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in LTTT and 2-Week is the HIGHEST TF used in LTTT.
Common TF's used in LTTT:  12h, 24h, 2-Day, 3-Day, 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day, Weekly, 9-Day, 12-Day and 2-Week.
Time Frame(s) is used as a Compass Majority of the Time in LTTT:  3-Day and 4-Day Time Frames.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in LTTT:  Two (2) trades every 2 to 12 weeks.  Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames.
Capital Safeguards for LTTT:  Once bought on exchange, immediately take off exchange and store in cold storage.  When selling immediately take tethers off exchange and store in cold storage until a few days before likelihood of reversal to upward pressure again.  For example, it currently looks like possible reversal around mid September.  Time to transfer Tethers back to exchange around September 9th.  That date could change as September 9th approaches based on what we are seeing in the indicators.
Percentage of capital used for LTTT:  15 Percent.

Mid Term Trend Trading (MTTT):
Lowest and Highest TF's used in MTTT:  45 minute (45m) is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in MTTT and 12h is the HIGHEST TF used in MTTT.
Common TF's used in MTTT:  45m, 60m, 90m, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h, 8h, 10h and 12h.
Time Frame(s) is used as a Compass Majority of the Time in MTTT:  4h and 6h Time Frames.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in MTTT:  Two (2) trades every 12 hours to 96 hours.  Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames.
Capital Safeguards for MTTT:  The remaining 10 percent I use for Mid Term Trend Trading and 5 percent used for High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is kept on exchange.  This way, 85 percent of my capital [Whether it's in crypto, precious metals or FIAT] is ALWAYS protected.  While the remaining 15 percent for Mid Term Trend Trading, High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is all that's at risk.
Percentage of capital used for MTTT:  10 Percent.

High Time Frame Scalping - (HTFS):  This type of trading is often done with margin trading because the price movement is often large enough to cover the trading fees under the right market conditions.
Lowest and Highest TF's used in HTFS:  5 minute (5m) is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in HTFS and 3h is the HIGHEST TF used in HTFS.
Common TF's used in HTFS:  5m, 10m, 15m, 20m, 30m, 45m, 60m, 90m, 2h and 3h.
Time Frame(s) used as a Compass Majority of the Time in HTFS:  This can vary depending on the crypto pair traded and the market conditions seen in the indicators.  The compass usually falls somewhere between the 15m and 45m time frames based on the crypto pair traded and the market conditions seen in the indicators.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in HTFS:  Two (2) trades every 30 minutes to as high as 15 hours.  Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames.  It also depends on when my trailing stop is triggered.  Which is why my second trade to exit and/or reverse position could last as long as 15 hours before my trailing stop is finally triggered; my market sell is automatically implemented and I begin a new position to the reverse if the indicators are favorable.  Sometimes, I have to be patient and wait after a trailing stop is triggered to allow the indicators to show me a more obvious directional pressure signal before opening another position.
Capital Safeguards for HTFS:  The remaining 10 percent I use for Mid Term Trend Trading and 5 percent used for High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is kept on exchange.  This way, 85 percent of my capital [Whether it's in crypto, precious metals or FIAT] is ALWAYS protected.  While the remaining 15 percent for Mid Term Trend Trading, High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is all that's at risk.
Percentage of capital used for HTFS and/or LTFS:  5 Percent for HTFS and/or LTFS.

Low Time Frame Scalping - (LTFS): This type of trading is often done with very low leverage since the price movement may not move quite enough at times to justify paying the higher fees associated with higher leverage.
Lowest and Highest TF's used in LTFS:  1 minute (1m) is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in LTFS and 30m is the HIGHEST TF used in LTFS.
Common TF's used in LTFS:  1m, 2m, 3m, 5m, 10m, 15m, 20m and 30m.
Time Frame(s) used as a Compass Majority of the Time in LTFS:  This can vary depending on the crypto pair traded and the market conditions seen in the indicators.  The compass usually falls somewhere between the 2m and 10m time frames based on the crypto pair traded and the market conditions seen in the indicators.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in LTFS:  Two (2) trades every 5 minutes to as high as 45 minutes.  Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames.  It also depends on when my trailing stop is triggered.  Which is why my second trade to exit and/or reverse position could last as long as 45 minutes before my trailing stop is finally triggered; my market sell is automatically implemented and I begin a new position to the reverse if the indicators are favorable.  Sometimes, I have to be patient and wait after a trailing stop is triggered to allow the indicators to show me a more obvious directional pressure signal before opening another position.
Capital Safeguards for LTFS:  The remaining 10 percent I use for Mid Term Trend Trading and 5 percent used for High Time Frame Scalping and/or Low Time Frame Scalping is kept on exchange.  This way, 85 percent of my capital [Whether it's in crypto, precious metals or FIAT] is ALWAYS protected.  While the remaining 15 percent for Mid Term Trend Trading, High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is all that's at risk.
Percentage of capital used for HTFS and/or LTFS:  5 Percent for HTFS and/or LTFS.

I mentioned "Distribution" and "Accumulation" above.  The chart provided below is Bitcoin History From 2012 to Present Day Using Wyckoff Method.  You will see the year of "Distribution" we had in 2014 and 2018.  You will also see the 3.5 months of "Accumulation" we had in 2012, 9 months of "Accumulation" we had in 2015 and 4 months of "Accumulation" we had in 2019.  AFTER "Accumulation" we had bouts of "Re-Accumulation" in 2013, 2016, 2017 and Re-Accumulation occurring now in this 3rd Quarter of 2019.  Here is a link to a brief tutorial for Wyckoff Method:  https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

Do you trade via an exchange using metatrader or do you just buy and sell via other means....
And how do you do risk management since exchanges get hacked etc.

Just asking for people who are interested.

You're welcome... And thanks for dropping by, Exstasie.   

I believe a lot of people are looking at that Weekly 20-EMA as POSSIBLE support.  And yes, we could very easily go down into the $8k's if we do not have enough margin longs drop out in the $9k's.

Appears the margin longs are finally beginning to go down.  I simply had a hard time seeing BitFinex making up the difference on all those margin longs versus the shorts if they were to allow it to continue going up for a lengthy period of time.  Maybe I'm looking at margin longs and shorts in the wrong way.

Thanks for the updates, David!

I'm in agreement, sideways or downwards over the next few weeks as we round out this bull market correction. With the 20-week EMA hovering around $9K, I'm looking for at least a retest of the low $9,000s.

We saw some wicking below that EMA in 2016 in the earlier stages of the bull market, which is why I haven't ruled out the $8,000s yet.

$9,120 at a Minimum by Mid September.  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Qrn0H8zk-9-120-at-a-Minimum-by-Mid-September-Read-Comments-Section/




I will not post photos of my office remodel WITHOUT providing a BTCUSD update.  That's my compromise for those still interested in the office remodel.

Here's a look at the progress in my office remodel:  Please ignore the mess.  It will actually be quite nice in my office once completed.

I have one more wall to install shelving, need to run a coax cable to my office for my cable internet modem, wire up the other end of new 110 Volt/20 Amp outlets at the main distribution panel, finish the PC build, mount the PC under the new counter top desk, etc...  Getting closer to completion.

16 inch deep shelving placed above the 55 inch 4k TV's to be used as monitors:



One more wall to install the 16 inch deep shelving.  Part of this last wall will include 24 inch deep shelf:



A view of the opposite corner of my office with one remaining wall to install shelf:  The wall with the entry door and closet door will not include a shelf:  



A 3 inch painted facial piece will go along the entire front edge of the shelving in order to hide future LED light fixtures to shine down on the future counter top that will continue to the corner and along the other wall to the right:



UPDATE EDIT:  

I finally got all the shelves up; as seen in the two following photos.  Need to remove the painters tape from the crown molding.



Still one more shelf to put up for my large Epson printer to sit on.  You see a small square I cut out of the wall to pass through the printer power cord.  I put the second coat of paint on the shelf for the printer.  I'll mount it on the wall tomorrow after I allow plenty of time for the second coat of paint to dry.  You also see a six port surge protected power strip mounted in the corner of the wall.  It's mounted in the corner above the shelf for my cable modem and two routers to be mounted to the right of the power strip.



UPDATE EDIT:

Printer mounted on wall with wires hidden inside wall.  The goal is to have as much of the wiring to components hidden where at all possible.  Part of my glass "L" shaped desk will be underneath the printer mounted on the wall.
In case you are interested:  A "pair" of the "L" Brackets I'm using can hold up to 1,000 pounds if anchored properly in studs.  https://www.lowes.com/pd/Style-Selections-Steel-19-5-in-D-x-13-in-L-x-1-16-in-W-White-Shelf-Bracket/3034239

The BitFinex margin longs are almost four times as much as the margin shorts. I suspect the margin longs need to be spooked out of their positions to collocate the margin longs and shorts before we see another significant move up to new highs. This should take place between now and mid to late September.

NEW VIDEO PUBLICATION titled, "Downward Pressure WILL Still Continue to Mid to Late September."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Hu0j6YGW-Downward-Pressure-WILL-Still-Continue-to-Mid-to-Late-September/

We have a NEW 4-Day Candle.  Which gave us NEW signals on the indicators along with the MA's and EMA's.  Our GRAY 40-EMA in the 4-Day TF also moved upward from $8,714 to $8,800.

Here's the 4-Day WITHOUT indicators:


Here's the 4-Day WITH indicators:

Have a look at the Blue LSMA inside Godmode Indicator.  We may not see a reversal to upside pressure until some time between the 4-Day candle beginning September 14 and September 26, 2019.

ROFLMAO

I listen to her...  Just not ALL the time.   

I am old school...  Just turned 53...  Not real old school but old enough.  Still like to listen to my CCR, KC, Paul McCartney, Elton John, etc...

Hi FOMA,

Good to see ya!

Yes, I'm sure this is not good news to bulls.


Agreed, I'm keeping a somewhat open mind as well.  However, have a look at the GRAY 40-EMA in this 4-Day TF back in history.  By the way, I'm ONLY concerned about the GRAY 40-EMA in this 4-Day TF for the price action DURING A BULL TREND; "NOT" a bear trend.

Listen to your wife ;-)

I can understand that you want a color to remind you that you are still alive.

You going for the old school classic Cyan-Magenta-Yellow interior 🤔

this is pretty soul crushing stuff for the bulls.

i'm keeping an open mind here. i agree those bitfinex longs are looking super heavy, but long/short is not always conclusive. bitcoin often likes to go sideways in the later part of corrections rather than making lower lows. i wonder if we might just range in the $9000 - $11000 zone for the next few weeks until that downward pressure fades out.

This has been a remarkably amiable and informative thread, so I’m sorry if this post derails it a bit, but I can’t help expressing an opinion here.

David started this thread, and has provided some incredibly complex and thoughtful analyses, that none of us are paying for. After following someone’s writings, I think it’s natural to want to know a little bit more about the author, his other talents and interests, and what else he’s up to. So, I’m a little bit curious about what’s going on with his office construction project, but even if I weren’t, I think he’s more than earned the right to insert whatever he feels like into this thread. If it’s not something you’re interested in, it’s pretty easy to just scroll past it.

My wife doesn't either...   

All that matters is I like it.  Especially, since I will spend 8 to 48 hour stints in my office.

Cheers...

My apologies...

No more posts of my office at all from this day forward.

Don't feel like keeping up with another thread either.

This thread will stay strictly with Godmode Analysis...

EDIT:  I will not post photos of my office remodel WITHOUT providing a BTCUSD update.  That's my compromise for those still interested in the office remodel.

New Video Publication, titled, "Downward Pressure Continues Till Mid to Late September, 2019."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/echuwPWt-Downward-Pressure-Continues-Till-Mid-to-Late-September-2019/

Hate the color 

Wouldn't it make more sense to create an alternative topic about your room improvements ? I'm always hoping for new godmode analysis but only see pictures of walls