Topic: [XMR] Moderated Monero General Discussion Thread - page 4. (Read 11177 times)

I vote for a flat emission curve. X monero per block for ever. Though I know no one else would ever support that.

Criticism noted.

This may be wrong but I think there is a pretty reasonable chance that it isn’t, so this is an important insight I think. Also something I had not thought of myself, so thanks for bringing that up.

1st year is 39%, after 4 years it is 86%.

I would much rather see us at <50% for 3-4 years, because a fully mined coin when there is no meaningful adoption (10s of millions of users at least) is likely to be superseded by a fork of the same, which is perceived as "more legitimate" since it is "not premined".

I don't think inflation is "good" but I find it hard to retain legitimacy in the view of the future generations without it. Crypto is not gold. Gold cannot be forked, crypto can. And has. And will.

I've thought of picking up more on dips, but honestly, without a nice wallet I won't and for different reasons. 1 of which is I couldn't get the simple wallet installed from scratch. I could run it and I had the blockchain on my Mac but I didn't want to chance a non binary install. No longer a computer expert and didn't want to waste the time figuring things out (after 3 hours).

I thought the emission rate was ok, and the majority slowdown is in 3 or 4 years? Excuse my ignorance here.

Anyway, with their update of the wallet (screenshots and such) a month ago, I thought we were close. If they can get it out in the next month or two we have a chance but if they wait much longer anything can happen. We are not in the position of cutting off our nose to spite our face, via non action.

Any word on the wallet GUI?

Ok - it is my opinion it would in the short term.  Much like Darkcoins price shot up after they limited their total coin supply, we are talking about increasing ours. 

The rational being "I hold 5000XMR.  This is 1/5 of a % of all XMR's that will be produced.  After doubling the eventual output my holdings will only be 1/10th.  They made me own less & increased the ceiling for future scarcity."

I do feel this move increases the likelyhood significantly of actual XMR adoption which is what we all want.  And if that happens the long term effects on price will be amazingly positive regardless of if there are 18 million or 36 million coins. 

Could you please explain why this would tank the price?

As we approach the end of the emission, and if the adoption rate is stagnant, that perception risk will grow. We are currently at around 20% of the emission and a year from now we'll be at 50%. If we want to avoid that risk we have to specify deadlines at which some fundamentals should be in place in order to drive adoption. These deadlines must be from a funding perspective.

We already have an idea of the milestones. (Embedded db and QoS, then GUI, blockchain size management). These achievements can be facilitated to the Dev Dream Team by means of well defined (time and money) fund goals as was already discussed.

Along side these developments is the ongoing work of patching/refactoring/commenting of the code. This could be addressed by a similarly ongoing funding, which is being hard to pinpoint.

Double the total coin supply.  Then change emission curve to something closer to BBR's emission curve?

I'd be on board with that.  Be ready for a price tank.

Difficult situation indeed.. I think that XMR is not yet ready for increased adoption, as there are still issues with the anonymity, which is the most fundamental offering.
Releasing a GUI without solving those issues will just lure unsuspecting users into using it carelessly, which might actually put people in danger.
Maybe we can change the emission such that it will continue it's fast pace for a longer period?

Good high level summary.

I would add one more corner to the rock/hard place picture:

To break out of the status quo, we'd need to actively encourage user adoption / make XMR go "live". Devs have (understandably so, given their already taxing time constraints) said they think the project isn't ready for that yet (hence: the GUI delay).

I agree with this.  

That perception of "community premine" is my biggest fear.  Especially without the GUI.  I would vote FOR turning my 1,000 Monero's into 500 if we could reduce the coin release schedule to avoid this AND being accused of driving our investments up.  

However that said I've never paid too much attention to dark or other coins that rocketed up but Monero has the longest period of being able to accumulate close to a fair price / average price of any coin I've seen.  I'm not sure if that makes sense ... but in my head I envision that 75 - 85% of the Monero's owned were accumulated between .025 & .045.  And this has been possible for months and months.  So there is some defense against the community premine in that price stability has been so consistent.

Also releasing more coins creates more supply even after the coins are released.  Not sure how to explain this either but there is much more danger of going down when there's 5,000,000 coins on the market vs 2,500,000.  

My thinking is starting to shift on all of this a little.  Monero has clearly stated their direction from the beginning (GUI, database, etc).  As more features are added the risk of them not meeting those expectations shrink THIS is what drives the price up on a GUI release IMO.  Also as time goes on more coins are dumped on the market.  There are only two factors. 

A.  How many coins will be available when.
B.  What will the demand of coins be available when.

More coins early is actually more dangerous for early investors as early adopters face the risk of buying in when demand outstrips supply & then supply catches up later (Vertcoin, Cryptonite).

The demand of coins (even bitcoin to a large degree) is fully limited to speculation not actual use.  So I think (could be wrong) that what speculators buy it when may have less to do with the actual adoption & use than it does with one group of speculators crying foul at another group of speculators.  Ironic part is the group of speculators crying foul will likely be the ones driving up the value of the group of speculators holding.

It's such a lose lose situation.  Do nothing, get accused of community premine.  Do something to slow down emission, get accused of only wanting to drive up the price of your investment.  

Without GUI, adoption will remain sluggish. With sluggish adoption, not only will price be pressured, but more importantly - and this is a coin killer - the emission will run its course to the point that XMR will considered to be a "community premine" despite all our good heroic efforts.

Since changing the emission also can be considered to be a premine of sorts, we are between a rock and a hard place with (yet) no solutions that would have the unanimous support of everybody.

I can also be wrong concerning the future perception of "community premine".

Taking a cue from aminorex, lets resume this discussion and add value to Monero. We shouldn't take the risk of the rapid adoption kicking in while the tech is so raw as it is now.

X posting here:

I just got an answer to my ticket at CCEDK, how to verify my identity (the KYC-thing). As mentioned in their FAQ it neccessary to deposit/withdraw larger amounts of fiat (i. e. > 100 EUR).

With the permission of Ronny Boesing I paste it here for your information:

Indeed. As a quite new exchange they have very low volumes at all markets.
I just signed in yesterday and will give all my guppy-power to improve, but this will not make any markable move. My hope is, many will follow and even some other species like dolphins, sperm whales and other big mammals. And of course last but not least some bigger reptilias (sometimes cold blood can be very helpful  )

One of the first things I was going to suggest was the creation or funding of a second or third major XMR exchange with high voulme, excelent usability (specifically on smart devices) and no chat box.

Can you send me PM a memo how to get in there. I think they need more liquidity soon 

Not sure if we're on the same page, but can give some clear examples of fear being flipped in the gambling/investing world:

I'm afraid of making a bad investment, so I research and track every investment I make/ I'm afraid of making a bad investment, so I make no investments at all or trust second party's as infallible (ahem--Madoff).

I'm afraid of making a bad bet, so I research odds and hone my instincts with practice/ I'm afraid of making a bad bet, so I never bet.

I'm afraid of not making my money back, so I spend more time researching and making calculated risks so as to ensure my results are better with each coming move/ I'm afraid that I won't make back the money I lost, so I frantically invest in long shots that promise to pay off big.

Having a tough time figuring out what you're saying.  Fear or greed can be good or bad (if that's how you want to look at it).  Fear kept people from making fortunes with bitcoin.  Greed made people lose fortunes.  Depending on timing and a lot of other stuff.

I was just replying to the person who was implying fear was chasing away noobs.   Of course greed and fear are two NATURAL sides of the coin (no pun intended)

My point I guess was just that greed and fear are two opposite emotions in the investment/gambling arena.

I agree with your other stuff about generosity vs greed & fear of missing life experiences vs fear of dying.  Just not sure those are as applicable as investing/gambling