Long term Monero price can be 200$ ore even more if Bitcoin keep rising.
If Bitcoin keeps rising the sky's the limit!
And if bitcoin falls, prepare for interstellar space.
Does this imply you think XMR to be the most likely used hedge against a falling BTC or are you just noodling around?
Almost none of the failure modes of bitcoin apply to monero because the code base and algorithms and development teams are about as close to non-overlapping as you can get.
Also, they are best suited to distinct markets, bitcoin to the transparent instant global liquidity market, and monero to the dark instant global liquidity market.
Monero is capable of fulfilling almost all use-cases for bitcoin qua currency. If bitcoin fails, I imagine most of that usage would move to monero, if monero were the clear runner-up at that time.
I don't see it as a very efficient hedge right now, because speculative activity will correlate highly, but it is definitely a diversification in the portfolio-effect sense, and in some scenarios it could become a nearly perfect hedge.