Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1090. (Read 3314330 times)

i2p's router uses Java, seems to be just fine. Also I'll make your life easier, here's a Monero GUI already written in Java: https://github.com/jwinterm/LightWallet2

So just take that and add to it - looking forward to your release of the massively improved version on Wednesday evening!

Java is not setup per default in every OS. So it should be written in c++ -what still doesnt need 2 years.

Great stuff, looking forward to seeing your work:) First release on Wednesday evening, shall we say?

That is the EXACT opposite.

I'm a bit afraid that the dev team made their cash and are not so much in business to develope the GUI.

I mean i could do this with java in 2 days. I dont unterstand whats their problem here...they have had now 2 years.

Another problem is that people get used to something. Look like whatsapp or facebook. They are used to use Bitcoin. As long that dealers on DN doesnt give discount its hard to make the people switch to XMR. Moreover the volatility atm is not so good for the coin. Dealers could loose 15% in 2 days. Thats not less.

But still, XMR is superior from every view. Only the people around/behind it are sometimes the problem.

So solve this:

GUI
Make XMR to a prefered currency

Alphabay did its job, now its on the people.

I don't know much about the dark side of crypto but this: the Monero market cap is too small to accommodate the dark markets like Bitcoin in the earlier days. This goes one way, we have precedent for this.

It is quite funny that nerds and criminals are the first ones to utilize new technology. The two are so unlike another.

MAAM #31 Monero Ask Anything Monday

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/52dwo8/maam_31_monero_ask_anything_monday/

It is 2 years old. Crypto and DW change so much in 2 years. You cannot rely on this article.

Very bullish indeed:

 https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/30/life-after-silk-road-how-the-darknet-drugs-market-is-booming

Impossible to avoid volatility when a currency is at some $100 million market cap and the markets it will be used in is larger.

Your theory is based on one fallacy. Any XMR volume coming from BTC counts as BTC volume as well.

I was thinking about the relation between the BTC/fiat market and the XMR/BTC market:

Currently, the XMR volume is still accoutable for more than 20% of all the BTC volume, including all BTC/altcoin pairs (excluding scam 0% exchanges)
A rough calculation based on the numbers of coinmarketcap, learns us that about 40 million fiat/BTC volume is happening at the moment and there is about 20 million USD wirth of XMR/BTC volume

This is my theory:

***

If people want to buy big amounts of XMR, some of that buying will happen indirectly with fiat (I'll use USD nowas an example):

So USD -> BTC will push BTC up (to a lesser extent than the XMRBTC move)
then BTC -> XMR will push XMR up
=> This can result in XMR and BTC going up simultaneously

When traders want to take some XMR profits off the table, they will be selling XMR for BTC and some of them will be selling BTC for USD

So XMR -> BTC makes XMRBTC going down
then BTC -> USD will push BTC down (although to a lesser extent)
=> This can result in XMR and BTC going down simultaneously

***

The above scenario only works if people do it instantly, but that is almost never the case, thus we need to get delays and market behavior in the model.

Assuming the following: when people are taking profits in XMR, they aren't necessarily selling their BTC. Some people buying BTC to buy XMR are waiting a bit to see how the XMRBTC market behaves before starting to buy XMR.

Imagine a situation where XMRUSD is at all time high. Some people want to take some profit. Some of the profit takers don't sell their BTC immediately.
Meanwhile people with "fresh investment money" willing to buy XMR on the dip may buy BTC to be able to buy XMR, pushing BTC up. They don't necessarily instantly buy XMR because XMRBTC is going down.

This can result in panic dumping of XMR because BTCUSD goes up. Best case this results in a stable XMRUSD price, but it can get more ugly and XMRUSD can even drop.
If XMRUSD starts dropping, it's possible the freshly bought BTC will be at the sidelines for a while because BTCUSD is going up (they are making a profit by just waiting) and they are waiting for XMRBTC to drop more.

Eventually some people start buying XMR again, and XMRBTC can rise again. This can lead to more people buying BTC to (almost) instantly convert it in XMR.

The renewed interest in an altcoin with huge volumes can make BTC buyers/hodlers more cautious. Some long term BTC hodlers will maybe start to hedge and buy XMR for BTC, pushing XMRBTC up more, with zero impact on BTCUSD. Some BTC speculators will take some BTC profits of the table (remember up until this point BTCUSD was rising!) which can lead to stagnating BTCUSD or even some downwards pressure.

Due to the influx of both fresh BTC and BTC from long term bitcoin hodlers, XMRBTC is now going up while BTCUSD is slightly going down. XMR can make new USD all time highs at this point in the cycle.

When profit taking in XMRBTC starts again, the cycle begins again from the start...

good news indeed!
proly pronounced Monelo over there if i am not mistaken.

Check this out in the main thread!!!

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16220740

Hi,
This is miner from 8btc. We are the biggest news channel and community in China.
Whoever is in charge of the social media or Chinese Monero community, please contact me.
Best,
Miner Li

Running out of coins to shake out at this level.

I sincerely hope so.

The volume is quite low for this drop.

It has the potential to become much more costly than that I would say.  But that is the way this game is played is it not?

Correct and thanks. I raked a nice 1500 dollar pot today. but would have rather had had that in XMR.

It's more fun when you can do it honestly.

Not really sure about that, but I would say that the price will eventually increase, I have bought at 0.0196 and the price of 0.0187 but still I am holding, if only I still have money, I would definitely buy more XMR.