Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1153. (Read 3314330 times)

catching a falling knife > buying with the herd at the top

The inevitable. There will be corrections.

Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

Gosh, what happened?

When I went to bed the resident monkey botherer was predicting an ATH within "6 to 8 hours" - no doubt those numbers were used in a semantically objective way 

I had a look on AlphaBay yesterday and the number of vendors offering to use XMR is 'yuuugge'....and if ever a cohort appreciated anonymity.  The question is whether the buyers can get their shit together to purchase XMR.

I think it's counter-productive to own so much that it threatens the value of the currency you do hold.  

My original reasoning was invalid, but I used it for lack of a valid alternative:  There are working local currencies in villages as small as ca.  1000 households.  Thus the greatest lower bound on the number of nodes in a viable economy is, to first approximation on evidence, ~1000.  Therefore, No one should own more than 0.1% of emission in the long-run, or there may not be enough nodes.

Not only is this reasoning invalid, it is also obsolete:  There is now a much broader distribution than there was when I formulated the invalid conclusion.  Due to divisibility, it doesn't matter what share of the float the nodes have, so long as the share is distributed appropriately amongst the nodes of the (sub-)economy.

There remain two considerations which I now deem relevant:

I exercise some restraint simply because I don't think it's healthy for adoption if there is a single person who you can point at and say:  He will benefit disproportionately, if I use this currency.  Why should I act to enrich him?  (Although, in my own case, I think I could make a pretty good argument that you should.  Otherwise I wouldn't bother.)  As long as I am among 50 instead of 5, I think I am not doing much positive harm to the economy.  The farther up the Gini curve you go, the more self-defeating it becomes. Maybe you can predate upon a well-developed economy, and continuously improve yourself by impoverishing others, but in a nascent start-up economy, I doubt it can be done, practically speaking.  You have to contribute as best you can, and help insure a constructive, utile distribution, at least until it bootstraps.  My ability to contribute is constrained by available time, so I can't accumulate too much -- otherwise, my harm to distribution will not be adequately offset by my positive contributions in other areas.  How do you calibrate this?  I haven't tried very hard, but I don't really know how, so I just wing it.  Which makes the constraint perhaps a bit too ... flexible ... for perfect, clear (self-interested OR altruistic) rationality.

A separate fuzzy factor which I weigh together with this:  If I were to have owned too much Monero when it was declining, my courage might have failed, or my wife might have ditched me.  Neither would be an acceptable outcome:  I abhor personal cowardice, and I cherish and respect my wife.  But those are personal factors, and highly subjective, although you can work with them rationally, within some limited domains.

I noticed it was up around 245 earlier today.  Did not see any additional activity in China though.

And 240 active nodes.  I *think* that's the highest I've seen.   Goes with the current 26MH/s nicely.

Dear Monero Bag Holders:

Please stop dumping your precious little things..  Then your loved ones will grow and grow..  Pretty soon Monero will be king of anonymity and freedom from eavesdropping.

...and the good news just continues to roll down the pike.  Article after article.  Things are looking good for the moment. 

Livecoin will add Monero this week:

https://twitter.com/livecoin_net/status/770358051735998464

monero mentioned in the dollar vigilante article:

https://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/08/29/internet-set-shut-eve-jubilee-october-1st.html

Do you think it's going up?

Yes- 10,000 XMR

No- 0

Maybe-  500-1000 XMR

Aminorex, can you explain how you determine the rational limit of XMR to own?

Thanks for an interesting guess, but I would have doubted that was correct... BTC is far more widely distributed : it has had much more time and activity, in addition to at least 3 'bubble' phases (whereas I would possibly count this month as XMRs first 'bubble').  Conclusion is that there are fewer holders of 5000 BTC than of 5000 XMR.

Please could you expand on your own reasoning ?

Serious lag problems in Polo interfaces today.  Pretty bad yesterday too.

Buy order book > 6200 BTC at the moment. I think first time it is over the 6K mark. Considering dETH saw 30k in the buy books for several consecutive days, this is just the beginning. Saddle up 

i wonder if they're gods xmr

good to see all the old faces still around + some new faces too. Cant really say anything about price, up or down both good for me (still would prefer UP ofc).

shout out to the few monero millionaires in existence, stay loyal, fresh and cool (like you always do).

everybody feel welcome to join us at #monero-markets. we watch markets but also talk about everything else. veterans and noobs are equally welcome!

you can join the monero chats via Telegram, Slack or IRC

I hope 0.011 will hold.
It is not nice to waite 1-2 years for new ATH especially since the current ATH is only around 70 % higher from the previous one back in June 2014. For those who are used to stock markets 70 % gain seems huge but in crypto it is, well, not that good.

Despite there might be FOMO, hype etc around September 1st, I still tend to think it will bring real world demand for Monero and eventually this demand should be the natural force closing the long positions of the speculators.

Personally as previous ATH from 2014 was broken with force, I am willing to give extra time for Monero. Real demand will slowly take ground from the speculative demand. I am inclined to think that the DNM vendors will actually hold as many Moneros as they can since Monero has anonymous account balances.
Also I would like to see the demand Risto described earlier - people who are "normal" and just want an asset that is digital but gold like in monetary terms (low inflation).

If it goes back to 0.004 which is unlikely but certainly possibility as well as the price rise to 10,000 usd/xmr I am thinking of buying a large lot of coins.

Top monero bulltard turning bear now?