Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1156. (Read 3314330 times)

If so, it is because of language differences.  It is perfectly clear in my mind.

You are focusing on the words, not the underlying facts and causes.  Please rescan the part that isn't gibberish to you.  Then your critique may be on-point.

I think a week ago, the bitwa.la news would have leveled us up 20% in a matter of hours.  Today... Meh.  Whatever.  Long term, though it is bigger than DNM news.  We will outgrow DNM dependency quickly - much, much more quickly than did bitcoin.

One more article: http://sputniknews.com/science/20160829/1044728112/monero-cryptocurrency-transactions.html

"As a dictum it is not semantically objective." Sorry but that's just gibberish.

You go on to say that people 'wander in' and basically have not heard the news...ergo we have moved past rumour.
 

Draw the lines where you will. As a dictum it is not semantically objective.  The point is that early recipients of information are advantaged relative to late ones.  Most of the people who may buy Monero on this news haven't learned of it yet, as witness all the folks wandering into Monero threads  asking what is going on - and these are the ones connected enough to be posting on BTT!

Estimating where we are on that diffusion curve, and what are the delays in the resulting cash flows, is not trivial, but:  I think the disillusionment of the unrealistically optimistic buyers doesn't kick in until traffic numbers come in.  Until they have facts in which to find disappointment, they can blithely hold in expectation of their future gain.

I think we are with 6 hours now of a new ATH.  Maybe 8. It is way slower now, certainly.  Most of the net flow due to the news has already occurred, but it is still net positive flow.  When it becomes net negative, price will go down, and I consider 012 to be first major support right now, although our current level may become first major support, if we level up again.


However if I am wrong, I definitely am not committing to do a Godiva ride on the subway.

XMR dev update Ethereum Contracts on XMR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVlQE-ObEXk   (ethereum style smart contracts talk for XMR at 25min in)

How about: the impending adoption of XMR by AlphaBay is not rumour, it has been 'news' for a week now.  Come 1st Sept it will move from being 'news' to being reality (and then I suppose the real test begins). So, perhaps your powerful rule of thumb is just not relevant to this scenario.

EDIT Paratox beat me to it.

Works ok for me, maybe a little bit slow, too much client downloads?

It's a good rule of thumb, but in this situation,  isn't the news already out for days? That XMR gets adopted by DNMs isn't a rumor anymore.  Or are you talking about something other than DN adoption of XMR that will be revealed on September 1st?

getmonero.org is down.. anyone knows why?

Yes. In addition, you can follow this guide:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48cgmd/an_extensive_guide_for_securely_generating_an/

had my moneroj on mymonero since march , now i'm looking at cold storage, is moneroaddress.org still the way to go? is it much safer than mymonero?

Wow, so much pitty-pat.

Bitwa.la monero support! Yes!  Now anyone in Europe - at least - do they allow North American customers?  I will try to sign up - can buy sell spend or accept monero online and in shops.  That is truly huge, and previously a point of disadvantage, now removed.  Of course those and are tracked, but it is still a huge boost for privacy so long as you control the interfaces, and can connect directly to foreign addresses.  A month from now, that may be the dominant fiat exchange interface.

I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.

Longer term, I expect more exchanges to support Monero, and both fiat and crypto will be flowing in to actually use the stuff, on a scale of weeks and months.   In as little as 3 years, in an optimistic but feasible case,  Monero has a chance to be the dominant cryptocurrency world-wide, in which case the price should exceed bitcoin significantly.  "Optimistic but feasible" means probability between 0.1 and 10%.  My SWAG estimate is 2%.  Bitcoin pioneered this path, and it is easier to follow now. 

Monero is getting lots of press now.  In some ways this is the best kind of marketing as its organic and not manufactured crap.  In the music business we say any press is good press especially when it is free.

Came across this this morning.
http://www.livebitcoinnews.com/rise-of-monero-experts-weigh-in-on-merits-limits/

This is funny. When the price goes up everyone starts wondering why and what is making it go up. If you are a real supporter of Monero the price does not matter. If you are a speculator of XMR the only thing that will matter is how high the price will go up and how much you will make in the trade. The people asking why and what is making it go up are maybe the ones who have not bought yet or is not sure if he did the right thing.


[/quote]

Well ofc price always matters Even if i've supported monero from the day i heard about(and will keep supporting as long as it's valid) it i'm still an investor seeking profits at the same time. Speculation and reasoning is a natural part of it just like this thread SPECULATION has +1000 pages on it.

I bet on this option ^^
80% IMO


Because of this:



and this:

Bitwala is now accepting Monero!

http://about.bitwa.la/bitwala-is-now-accepting-monero/

This is funny. When the price goes up everyone starts wondering why and what is making it go up. If you are a real supporter of Monero the price does not matter. If you are a speculator of XMR the only thing that will matter is how high the price will go up and how much you will make in the trade. The people asking why and what is making it go up are maybe the ones who have not bought yet or is not sure if he did the right thing.

My post had nothing to do with you it was aimed at our beloved primer- as that was who you were talking about.

I generally regret paying any attention to primer...  Seems it is even so by proxy, lol.

According to Roger Ver, Bloomberg is writing an article on Monero today:

https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29070

Could be another big day for Monero.

@Duomo, cAPSLOCK is definitely referring to primer~, not you.

Read his post again. cAPSLOCK is trying to tell you to ignore primer~ as primer~ is full of shit. There is no sarcasm.

If you check primer~ post history, I think you will also agree with cAPSLOCK's statement.

The best thing to do is to put primer~ on ignore, as most people have already done.