Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1184. (Read 3314325 times)

Also the proof of work security promise of bitcoin will not likely be matched with Monero.

Although I like Monero, please remember that it has not even a fraction of the proof of work protection and security of bitcoin. I've long considered that there will be one dominant "transparency coin" and one dominant "privacy coin".

I realize that Monero offers the option to be transparent, but I doubt it will ever catch bitcoin in that realm. Also the proof of work security promise of bitcoin will not likely be matched with Monero.

At a glance I would estimate that bitcoin could aspire to the level of the "above ground" market and Monero might aspire to the level of the "underground" market.

That's a great sign! With all of the old DNM's being busted by the fed's, this is a good indication that the rest of the markets will follow alphabay.




Also, is there any point in holding bitcoin? Or maybe reducing the core holdings of bitcoin and increasing the monero position.

Official sold LISK for XMR. Hello Team!


will only 5000 XMR be ok for me? - or will i be a poor man in my future? what is a "good amount" of this coin to hold?

I will be still learning from all of you thank you!!!!!!!!!!!


How many people hold over 10K coin of this?

how many people hold 5k ? -- if you have to make guess? I know there is no richlist so if any veteran XMR member can give me opinion

Why, in the name of all that is holy, would anyone use bitcoin and expose themselves to extortionists, kidnappers, and thieves (governmental, NGO, and freelancers), when an alternative exists?  XMR is now the single most liquid alternative.  The market, through the mechanism of price, will act to insure that there is enough liquidity to meet demand.

So... I guess I will be waiting for a retrace of 0.00420 to 0.00520 before I jump in XMR. With my luck the price is gonna rally way beyond 0.01 while I wait..... and do the opposite as soon as I get in. I just never win in crypto  


I do like that XMR has actual utility, which is more than you could say for 99% of altcoins. I do believe the price will increase from where it is today... but I HATE getting in right after a massive pump/no correction.....  and if there is no correction, I would hate getting in above 0.01 which was the ATH.... fuck crypto  

Besides obvious self interest a reason why people see things differently could be...  Blind men and the elephant.

Wise words. Couldn't describe that better as you did now.

Conclusion

Shared send mixing is one of the major types of anonymization techniques in the Bitcoin network.Correspondingly, the problem of untangling shared send transactions (i.e., discovering value flowswithinthetransaction)hasgreatpracticalimportance.

Inthispaper,sharedsendmixingisformalizedusing graph notation. By proving NP-completeness of ambiguous transaction detection problem, we show that this measure to obfuscate transaction history is theoretically effective. However, both limitations on the blockchain space and presence of off-chain data can reduce the effectiveness of shared send mixing.

Our computational experiments show that detection and analysis of shared send mixers is possible in real time for the most of bitcoin transactions.

We also discover that mixing transactions occurquite often on the Bitcoin Blockchain; by our estimations, they constitute about 2.5% of all bitcointransactions. Interestingly, about half of these transactions are able to be untangled. Namely, theycan be uniquely split into two or more sub-transactions, allowing for the restoration of relationshipsamong addresses referenced in the transaction.Together with other data mining tools, analysis of shared send transactions forms the analyticalbackend for Bitfury’s Crystal Blockchain – a web service for blockchain investigations and analysis.The first public release of the service is scheduled soon after the publication of the present paper.

What is your strategy for the investment?

- For trading, FOMO is usually not good, but you can buy others' FOMO and trade profitably.

- For believing that Monero will rock the world, think of it as having a 50M USD marketcap!! Any rocking of anybody's monetary system requires a market cap 1,000 times that big (in reality a million times, but that much profit is hard to comprehend), so it absolutely does not matter at all whether you buy after a doubling move, just do it!

- BUT since the upside is so large, it does not matter if you wait either If you have any reason to believe you can buy cheaper with accumulation strategy etc, just do it! If you don't have any experience trading/timing XMR, just do it!

Just because a couple of dark net markets make Monero available as a payment option does not guarantee that buyers used to Bitcoin will actually use Monero to a significant extent. I think the dramatic price rise is part speculation that Monero will actually be used, combined with significant exposure in the media bringing new and old buyers back in. IMO Monero was also undervalued.

What will be interesting is the first week of September. What will happen to the price of Monero if deepdotweb reports that no one cares to use Monero rather than Bitcoin in those two darknet markets?

What is "manipulation", really? What is "natural"?

Of course a component of the rally is speculation due to the news on DNMs. I would even bet it is the largest component. These last few days are completely unprecedented in Monero-land; the correlation with the news is extremely strong. Is this speculation "manipulation"? There are of course other components as well. You seem to be assigning a high (nay, overwhelming) % to some other "manipulation" by those with "large bags of BTC to play with".

The XMR market represents the current consensus on the price of XMR. Part of that consensus is "manipulation"; part is "natural"; part might be "other". No market participant is exactly like another. You do not and cannot *know* the intent of the market participants except yourself. You can thus only guess at what you think is going on. When you say in the affirmative "This IS manipulation", you declare that which you do not know.

You request "our" arguments for "natural" growth, but provide none for "manipulation" beyond that it "is obvious".

Well, when people say MOON, Rocket starting, the Darknet buys Monero now and so on, that's all a very optimistic sight of what is actually happening. Like mentioned a few posts earlier to this, insider information, large bags of BTC to play with, manipulating some markets --> plural (did you watch the other noname coins yesterday), is obvious.

Of course i also would like to see XMR beeing the #1 cyrpto in the world used by everybody to do what everybody likes, but that is not the case, yet.
This IS manipulation, maybe the cashout of the bitfinex hack, and that is obvious. If you tell me this is "natural" growth of XMR, i would like to discus your arguments guys

It just initially seemed hard to believe due to the relativity low amount of BTC it used to take to achieve 5K but you make some very valid points, thanks 

If there is a drop before Sept 1st then it will be very brief imo. The upside is still much greater than the downside at the moment. We know Monero can support a price of approx 0.003x without any of this darknet market adoption. When you consider the size of the total darknet markets the rise to the current price of 0.007x seems relatively small to me.

I think anything in the 0.0065-0.0075 range is a good buy at the moment, post Sept 1st I guess all bets are off.

I have written threads about the specifics of the model how these can be calculated. Instead of referring to those, I try to write it again in less formal but more understandable way.

1. Number of coins (XMR) is known, 12,700,000.

2. There is a largest holding. We don't know how large it is but my belief is more than 500,000 and less than 5,000,000 XMR. I am assuming 1,000,000 in the beginning of the deduction.

3. There is the smallest holding that matters. Anything below that is considered dust, and its owners don't count. Let us use 1 XMR because it's a round figure. Usually I prefer about $2 worth.

The above is true because it just is. So how can we know anything about how the coins are owned by people?

The answer is statistical probability. The number of coins each owner has, is a random variable. Therefore, the probability of someone owning 231 XMR (or: any number between 231-231.999999999999) has to be very near the probability of someone owning 232 XMR (or: any number between 232-232.999999999999). Or if not, there needs to be a valid explanation.

Another rule is called power law, and it says that the top end of many statistical phenomena, tends to behave so that if the largest value is 1, the second, third, etc. largest values are close to 1/2, 1/3, etc (or: the set [1; 1/2; 1/3; ...] is a good fit to the set of actual values).

Therefore, with the initial guess that the largest owner has 1,000,000 XMR, we can first construct the power law "elite" of 1,000 owners who own anything between 1,000 XMR (1,000th richest) and 1,000,000 XMR (1st richest). In total, the 1,000 largest owners have 7,500,000 XMR.

This answers your question. The reason there are surprisingly little people who fulfil "owns at least X XMR" is that to satisfy statistical continuity, there has to be people owning 2x that amount, and the number of those people tends to be 1/2x the number owning the smaller amount, and this goes all the way until the largest holding.

So the TOP-1000 who have 1,000 XMR or more, collectively own 7,500,000 XMR. The rest, with smaller holdings, are much more in number, but altogether own only 5,200,000 XMR.

There is a scenario universe for the possible assumptions. It is possible to decide sigma levels and make a more complicated multi-scenario calculation. But it does not really matter.

You mean I should FOMO right now?

EDIT: just saw the comment above mine, don't listen to ANYONE in here. NEVER. do your own research and choice.