Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1185. (Read 3314325 times)

If there is a drop before Sept 1st then it will be very brief imo. The upside is still much greater than the downside at the moment. We know Monero can support a price of approx 0.003x without any of this darknet market adoption. When you consider the size of the total darknet markets the rise to the current price of 0.007x seems relatively small to me.

I think anything in the 0.0065-0.0075 range is a good buy at the moment, post Sept 1st I guess all bets are off.

I have written threads about the specifics of the model how these can be calculated. Instead of referring to those, I try to write it again in less formal but more understandable way.

1. Number of coins (XMR) is known, 12,700,000.

2. There is a largest holding. We don't know how large it is but my belief is more than 500,000 and less than 5,000,000 XMR. I am assuming 1,000,000 in the beginning of the deduction.

3. There is the smallest holding that matters. Anything below that is considered dust, and its owners don't count. Let us use 1 XMR because it's a round figure. Usually I prefer about $2 worth.

The above is true because it just is. So how can we know anything about how the coins are owned by people?

The answer is statistical probability. The number of coins each owner has, is a random variable. Therefore, the probability of someone owning 231 XMR (or: any number between 231-231.999999999999) has to be very near the probability of someone owning 232 XMR (or: any number between 232-232.999999999999). Or if not, there needs to be a valid explanation.

Another rule is called power law, and it says that the top end of many statistical phenomena, tends to behave so that if the largest value is 1, the second, third, etc. largest values are close to 1/2, 1/3, etc (or: the set [1; 1/2; 1/3; ...] is a good fit to the set of actual values).

Therefore, with the initial guess that the largest owner has 1,000,000 XMR, we can first construct the power law "elite" of 1,000 owners who own anything between 1,000 XMR (1,000th richest) and 1,000,000 XMR (1st richest). In total, the 1,000 largest owners have 7,500,000 XMR.

This answers your question. The reason there are surprisingly little people who fulfil "owns at least X XMR" is that to satisfy statistical continuity, there has to be people owning 2x that amount, and the number of those people tends to be 1/2x the number owning the smaller amount, and this goes all the way until the largest holding.

So the TOP-1000 who have 1,000 XMR or more, collectively own 7,500,000 XMR. The rest, with smaller holdings, are much more in number, but altogether own only 5,200,000 XMR.

There is a scenario universe for the possible assumptions. It is possible to decide sigma levels and make a more complicated multi-scenario calculation. But it does not really matter.

Actually buying the breakout of the ATH can be a profitable strategy as long as the breakout is on strong volume, which is easy to tell. FOMO sets in and buyers pile on, and the ATH which was resistance then becomes support.

No, I mean the fear is eating you and it's obvious from your answer. you should find better technical or fundamental argument to buy than FOMO one's. Never do a trade based on the money you could get, just do it for fundamental/technical reasons.

EDIT: just saw the comment above mine, don't listen to ANYONE in here. NEVER. do your own research and choice.

Jump in now with NO leverage, so in mid-term you will cash out.

i mean even if a price will drop a little from this point (0.0077226), you will still get profit - with leverage there's always a risk, that you will lose all when there will be short squeeze for example

You mean I should FOMO right now?

one word : FOMO

maybe it's 4 words in fact 

So... I guess I will be waiting for a retrace of 0.00420 to 0.00520 before I jump in XMR. With my luck the price is gonna rally way beyond 0.01 while I wait..... and do the opposite as soon as I get in. I just never win in crypto 


I do like that XMR has actual utility, which is more than you could say for 99% of altcoins. I do believe the price will increase from where it is today... but I HATE getting in right after a massive pump/no correction.....  and if there is no correction, I would hate getting in above 0.01 which was the ATH.... fuck crypto 

The bolded section is what I have discerned from the way some users through different outlets speak. Almost out of regret/envy.

And what we see now - some of people are hoping to buy cheaper, but the other group thinks that's too cheap to sell at this moment.

I think LSK is no VALUE right NOW...but in future it will...right now....people need ANON currency more than anything....ANON > OVER EVERYTHING ..we have found digital cryptonite ..

LSK will be great but I think XMR just starting to rise... this year may look fun. I know as investor perspective I will hold money in XMR due to the new economy backing it. As a vendor it is better to put daily profit into XMR -more likely to double up and earn interest....and keep part into BTC still maybe.

Now question is? -How much daily profit vendors make ? and what % they put into XMR?

In my opinion, it doesn't really make sense to make a correction that early, or even make a bigger lower move at all. We almost reached the ATH several times, and we did today quite well at stabilizating the price for a little bit.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/cOvLDYMa-Monero-triangle-breakout-expectation/

It's not my chart, but i totally agree with this one. Before september 1 there's no reason to try retest lower fib levels, because there is better reward for going long, than going short in this moment.

Long story short - if you go long now, you will have like 100% chance to get the reward, but if you short, you can't be that sure.



This is my point of view, and what I believe will happen.

Everyone should gather the facts on they own, and make a decision by themselves.

Good luck guys.

I am in no need to argue about this. You are 100% right, i made a mistake. (I do not want to waste my time in arguing about this)
Well, when people say MOON, Rocket starting, the Darknet buys Monero now and so on, that's all a very optimistic sight of what is actually happening. Like mentioned a few posts earlier to this, insider information, large bags of BTC to play with, manipulating some markets --> plural (did you watch the other noname coins yesterday), is obvious.

Of course i also would like to see XMR beeing the #1 cyrpto in the world used by everybody to do what everybody likes, but that is not the case, yet.
This IS manipulation, maybe the cashout of the bitfinex hack, and that is obvious. If you tell me this is "natural" growth of XMR, i would like to discus your arguments guys

Just a little while ago you could buy 5000 XMR for under 10 BTC.. And it stayed that way for a long time.. You really think there are only ~200 people out there with higher balances than 5k?

I am not so picky, so that's why i posted what i posted. Well i do feel a little lucky. Bought in below 0,002 and sold above 0,0085. That's all fine for me, so like i said, i am not so picky, so don't be picky at me.

I could see that as well but, I think the twist here is how much Monero will need to be bought by new users for actual usage to be pulled into the DNM ecosystem in the next week or month?  That effectively takes them out of the exchanges and reduces supply.

Very true.  Indeed most information is disinformation or misinformation, albeit generally without malicious intent.  But it is better to be exposed to the ideas, and to test them, than to entirely miss out on ideas which might not otherwise have occured to you.  I particularly appreciate (although I do not enjoy) when I get called out on some error or key missing point in something I posted.  Otherwise, why bother to post?  The downside is the danger of being lulled into groupthink.  I used to think myself immune, but in fact it can be subtle and very pernicious.  The ideal is to be able to recognize the ebbs and flows of groupthink, while standing apart from it.  There is also some value in anything that keeps you engaged with an important topic, so that your energy is focused.  (For instance, right now, my focus should be on monte carlo inference over a structured bayesian regression problem, and not XMR.)

Selling Lisk near bottom, buying XMR near ath, that is a hell of a risky trade

The best technical knowledge I have seen in the years of watching the market is experience, you get a feel for what the market is going to do. there a few guys that post that can see whats coming but I'll not point them out as those that spent the time in this thread to learn the honest posters and the manipulators deserve to profit from it. Just because you jumped on a bandwagon don't expect anyone to tell you the truth so you can profit. And that is free advice anyone just buying should heed. Your best bet is to go back and look at the charts and on the market moves go into this thread and read the corresponding posts.

How can you reply in 14 seconds??