[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1192.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: Blazin8888 on August 23, 2016, 12:41:23 PM

179 BTC BUY WALL - HERE WE GO ? - BREAKING 1 MILLO SAT NOW?

Chewpracabra that faggot MOD in troll box hammered me for telling people to buy some XMR cheap lmao I think he is a butt hurt mod who missed this rise

Yeah, trollbox mod policy is fascist. They will not tolerate truth or honesty there, only mealy-mouthed deceits.

Blazin8888

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

179 BTC BUY WALL - HERE WE GO ? - BREAKING 1 MILLO SAT NOW?

Chewpracabra that faggot MOD in troll box hammered me for telling people to buy some XMR cheap lmao I think he is a butt hurt mod who missed this rise

nioc

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1008

Quote from: rangedriver on August 23, 2016, 11:34:28 AM

Quote from: Altitude on August 23, 2016, 11:30:47 AM

Quote from: rangedriver on August 23, 2016, 11:28:08 AM

My gut feeling says we're heading towards 0.012.

We're clearly in the middle of a profound change.

I think your guy feeling is wrong but good luck to you if you are invested and plan on selling some at .012

Perhaps.

But of the several years I've been frequenting this thread I can't think of any occasions where I have been wrong as yet.

Yeah this guy rangedriver's gut is good.

Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2016, 10:46:57 AM

Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.

Edit: currently forming another bull flag. Expecting an impulsive move past .01 later today. How far past, is not with my comfortable domain of estimation.

This guy ain't bad either especially considering his uberty. Your chance to right click aminorex Wink

I have held through ALL the ups and downs.
I'll consider selling a few when there are no zeros immediately to the right of the decimal point.

bitebits

legendary

Activity: 2242

Merit: 3523

Flippin' burgers since 1163.

Quote from: Duomo on August 23, 2016, 02:43:36 AM

Wouldn't be surprised if Monero is the next Bitcoin. I just bought quite a bit. I have never been really been a Monero Supporter until now.

What exactly changed your mind if I may ask?

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: luigi1111 on August 23, 2016, 11:54:35 AM

Hard to get 'em back when the market moves wildly in one direction, eh?

Exactimente. Your volatility is low ( good Sharpe) but if you sacrifice all the tail gains, well... No financial professional can simultaneously underperform the market and claim to competence. I like to outperform on both risk-adjusted and un-adjusted bases. It makes up for years of painful self-control that way.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2016, 11:49:17 AM

I suggest that topics unrelated to speculation be directed to another thread.

Regarding stable levels, you can reason about it simply: BTC 2013 established that DNM demand supports a $100 * 10mm currency, b =1e9 USD. Some multiple of that, k, between 0.0 and 1.0, shall be supported in XMR at equilibrium, at some time n years in the future. The crypto speculation marketplace discounts future values at some rate, "r". The NPV of XMR is then P_now = k*b*(r^-n). To value XMR today, estimate k,r, as a function of n. The trading range today should be distributed as the distribution of the parameters implies for P_now.

Since b grows over time, using the 2013 value produces an under-estimate.

Another way of using this relationship: r = exp[(log{k*b}-log{P})/n]. If you think the market-implied discounting rate "r" is excessive, buy. I you think it is too rosy-eyed, sell.

Of course this is fundamentals-based rational long-term investment policy, and does not account for speculative excesses, nor does it model volatility directly. Variance due to parametric uncertainty and volatility should be reflected in your position sizing (Kelly/leverage space).

aminorex

legendary

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: griffen1102 on August 23, 2016, 09:33:07 AM

That is fascinating. Thank you.

luigi1111

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Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2016, 10:46:57 AM

Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.

Hard to get 'em back when the market moves wildly in one direction, eh?

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: rpietila on August 23, 2016, 04:45:20 AM

Quote from: Altitude on August 23, 2016, 04:26:45 AM

I sold 55% of my xmr today for a nice healthy profit. I'll buy back in a few months when the price has shed over 50% of its gains.

Bitcoin also started from sub-$1 one point. Especially the ride to $32 left no prisoners so good luck with your plan.

(I do advocate diversifying, but not buying back lower, because I think it increases the risk with no corresponding gain).

Listen to this guy, he knows what he's talking about.

Quote from: smooth on August 23, 2016, 06:46:48 AM

Nostalgia. https://vid.me/ima7

God I love that!

Quote from: DonYo on August 23, 2016, 07:31:07 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on August 23, 2016, 07:19:35 AM

the number of large owners are decreasing and the coin gets more diversified at this point

What evidence do you have?

Early weak hands? Inmho, Monero has (had) the strongest bagholders ever met in the world

Just look at the rich list. Tongue

Quote from: DonYo on August 23, 2016, 07:31:07 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on August 23, 2016, 07:19:35 AM

the number of large owners are decreasing and the coin gets more diversified at this point

What evidence do you have?

Early weak hands? Inmho, Monero has (had) the strongest bagholders ever met in the world

I think all the weak hands are shaken out.

Quote from: Billy Bunter on August 23, 2016, 08:03:19 AM

A lot of commits from the Dev on the official GUI this past 24 hours. As far as I can see there are no outstanding issues.

https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activity

I would speculate we're almost there.

Still alot of work left.

Quote from: Febo on August 23, 2016, 09:29:57 AM

What I wonder is what will be average daily volume during next month? Any guesses? Inm last 30 days before yesterday daily average was 550 BTC. Now yesterday demolished all past and new relations will need to emerge.

It is getting really impressive.

Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2016, 10:46:57 AM

Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.

Edit: currently forming another bull flag. Expecting an impulsive move past .01 later today. How far past, is not with my comfortable domain of estimation.

I got blindsided as well. Looks like I'm just cheering you guys on. I didn't expect to break 42 and boy did it ever!

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

I suggest that topics unrelated to speculation be directed to another thread.

Regarding stable levels, you can reason about it simply: BTC 2013 established that DNM demand supports a $100 * 10mm currency, b =1e9 USD. Some multiple of that, k, between 0.0 and 1.0, shall be supported in XMR at equilibrium, at some time n years in the future. The crypto speculation marketplace discounts future values at some rate, "r". The NPV of XMR is then P_now = k*b*(r^-n). To value XMR today, estimate k,r, as a function of n. The trading range today should be distributed as the distribution of the parameters implies for P_now.

Since b grows over time, using the 2013 value produces an under-estimate.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

"Meet Monero, the Currency Dark Net Dealers Hope Is More Anonymous Than Bitcoin"

https://motherboard.vice.com/read/monero-cryptocurrency-dark-net-drug-dealers-hope-more-anonymous-than-bitcoin-alphabay

Blazin8888

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Are there any plans to update XMR forum? - would be nice to have a cool place to chat like dash has on their own forum - the UI on ours looks outdated IMO...although I realize this is not a priority. Would be nice.

rangedriver

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 504

Quote from: Altitude on August 23, 2016, 11:30:47 AM

Quote from: rangedriver on August 23, 2016, 11:28:08 AM

My gut feeling says we're heading towards 0.012.

We're clearly in the middle of a profound change.

I think your guy feeling is wrong but good luck to you if you are invested and plan on selling some at .012

Perhaps.

But of the several years I've been frequenting this thread I can't think of any occasions where I have been wrong as yet.

Altitude

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: rangedriver on August 23, 2016, 11:28:08 AM

My gut feeling says we're heading towards 0.012.

We're clearly in the middle of a profound change.

I think your gut feeling is wrong but good luck to you if you are invested and plan on selling some at .012

rangedriver

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 504

My gut feeling says we're heading towards 0.012.

We're clearly in the middle of a profound change.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2016, 10:46:57 AM

Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.

Edit: currently forming another bull flag. Expecting an impulsive move past .01 later today. How far past, is not with my comfortable domain of estimation.

I put a market maker sell order for a few hundred coins to the price point of 1.0 btc, but I might increase it to higher point, I am thinking like 2-3 btc/xmr (if they will be taken I hope I can buy back lower).

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: Blazin8888 on August 23, 2016, 11:03:41 AM

Anyone have plans for a localmonero website?

- similar to "local bitcoins"

- what ways can you purchase XMR with 0 I.D.

Using ID to purchase monero with fiat currency is safe, because unlike bitcoin the monero cannot be traced back to you after they have been spent.

I actually prefer using bitcoin to buy Monero. Bitcoin can be run through a mixer, and monero purchased via shapeshift.io. When TOR or I2P is used at each step, the result is the maximum degree of anonymity currently achievable with off-the-shelf open source software.

That said, what I would like to see happen is a Mycelium 1.0 style phone app, facilitating ad hoc XMR transactions. I tried to fund one, but my developer bailed.

Meanwhile there is also bitsquare.io

MirkoIta

legendary

Activity: 1667

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Stoned & Stranged

Quote from: Blazin8888 on August 23, 2016, 11:03:41 AM

Anyone have plans for a localmonero website?

- similar to "local bitcoins"

- what ways can you purchase XMR with 0 I.D.

This is the website you are looking for I think:

https://www.moneroclub.com/

Blazin8888

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Anyone have plans for a localmonero website?

- similar to "local bitcoins"

- what ways can you purchase XMR with 0 I.D.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.

Edit: currently forming another bull flag. Expecting an impulsive move past .01 later today. How far past, is not with my comfortable domain of estimation.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1192. (Read 3314325 times)