Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1200. (Read 3314325 times)

Looking at weekly timescale, the volume has been quite low compared to the last ramp up when ethereum was skyrocketing.
The whole chart is really nice, a huge double bottom with the second low forming what resembles a head of a huge reverse head and shoulders - with a recent breakout!

March 20th saw 680000 xmr move on poloniex at 0036, so yeah.  New high volume.

Big move up on strong volume... Can it get more bullish?

I don't see XMR borrowing demand.  Probably needs some sign of weakness to attract short interest.

Don't forget that in crypto discounting factors are generally inflated by a lot of idiosyncratic  event risks.  That seems like a pretty good equilibrium estimate for a year from now, if it sees actual use - and I do expect that it will - but under crypto-scale discounting, the NPV is probably closer to 3-4$.  

I would be unsurprised by an overshoot, say 5-6$, in the next week or two, but followed by a pullback, maybe as low as 2$.  Then a less dramatic but rapid rise to a 3-4 trading range, followed by a slow glide up into the 10-15 range on decreasing volatility - unless more markets add XMR, in which case additional, but smaller, spikes will keep volatility high, even while they push prices up faster than in the baseline expectation...towards a 20-25 range in 2 years.

I've been holding XMR in size since April of 2013 in anticipation of this event, and intend to continue holding until Monero has displaced bitcoin in all of the use-cases for which it is technically superior.  That would include most of the current uses of bitcoin. (And a price in the hundreds of 2016 USD, around 2020-2024, assuming no monetary systemic reset.)

I will slowly sell 5% of my holdings (a market making stake) on any near term spike close to $5, and try to get them back cheaper on the correction.  If that fails, I may or may not chase them uphill, depending on my ability to analyze the events of that time.  Although... I am beginning to question the value of continued market making because of the implied risk of underperforming the market.

This is my current speculation, and subject to prompt change (nonlinear) upon receipt of new information.

Hi nice to see you here !

And Monero tops the Poloniex charts once again.

4,000 BTC volume and climbing. Is that a record?

LOL I know.  Its OK. Its really late in NY.

Meanwhile, here comes 0.005btc, about to be tested....gonna be fun when the US wakes up and sees this.

Some serious FOMO.

LOL I know.  Its OK. Its really late in NY.

Shorts blowing up?

Can I borrow your time machine?