Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1215. (Read 3314325 times)

Every time people start to issue such frothy statements and want to believe in them, the end is near. This so reminds me of the situation in Bitcoin in late January 2013 when $16 was breached and therefore a new 1.5 year high was made, beating the Pirate high of previous year, and people believed it could never go to the trading range of $5-$10 again.

Remember, just remember what happened and do not get sucked to the hype.

Trading range has been 95+% from 1.80 to 2.20 USD, for a fairly long while.  I doubt it can go as low as 1.80 any longer, though.  That would take us all the way back to lows last seen...yesterday...which would be too terrible to contemplate, and hence impossible.

Every time people start to issue such frothy statements and want to believe in them, the end is near. This so reminds me of the situation in Bitcoin in late January 2013 when $16 was breached and therefore a new 1.5 year high was made, beating the Pirate high of previous year, and people believed it could never go to the trading range of $5-$10 again.

Remember, just remember what happened and do not get sucked to the hype.

Trading range has been 95+% from 1.80 to 2.20 USD, for a fairly long while.  I doubt it can go as low as 1.80 any longer, though.  That would take us all the way back to lows last seen...yesterday...which would be too terrible to contemplate, and hence impossible.

looks like TrueCryptonaire reverse indicators on your bullish comments might again prove to be correct soonish.

Monero strong hands dumping their XMR to short coverer and fresh blood

Given the number of coins moved, do you think he has any left?

Y'all are unduly pessimistic.  This is not a high price. 2/3 of the initial emission are already gone, distributed.  Try to mine some XMR and tell me how long to pay for your gpu.

I think someone tried to short and they got squeezed. That is price Discovery. there is just too much demand and not enough Supply for the market to support a lower price. As long as 20K buyers come in on a regular basis and remove Supply we are not going to be able to retrace. One day it will turn bearish. Probably after a significant overshoot. Today is not that day. This price is not that price.

And my bullishness is not because of the long-term value of Monero. Any present value discounting which deemed that the adoption of Monero in darknetmarkets was anything but a tail risk would be a multiple of the current valuation. My bullishness for the short-term is because of supply and demand. I admit that the evidence is limited and the error bars are huge but the best evidence is that we are currently visiting the central tendency of supply and demand curves.

Once demand flags a corrective retracement is possible. So far demand has been uninterrupted since the ides of May. Moreover the conditions are right for XMR to rise because the cost of XMR is not denominated in BTC. It is denominated in kilowatt hours. And as long as it keeps requiring more BTC to pay for that energy the BTC price will fluctuate favorably.

If the clearing price has risen 8% (in kilowatt hours) in the past month, it is probably because about 0.9% of the float has been removed from the market into reserves.  That can hardly be surprising, given the bfx flap.  I know that the event prompted me to reduce my market making stake, as it forced me to revisit the agent risk problem consciously.

Some targets for XMR assuming price stability in kWh, at us$2.20, depending on how far the btc bear goes:. Btc@$537 -> xmr@412k; btc@$444 -> xmr@500k.

My opinion is that the 100k 300k or so of large dumps were caught pretty nicely so far, but sucked most of the demand out of the system.  If there were any supply, we would be way lower.  I consider this bullish, because the demand will come back, while the supply will not - because it just doesn't exist.  The only way it can go down is for the holders to become pessimistic about the future or optimistic about prospects of short gains.  And its a bit late for the later, at this point.

I suspect that the exchanges will lose at least half of their XMR holdings when the GUI is officially released.  That's also roughly equivalent to reducing the float by half, and should result in a 4x rise in market clearing levels.

My intention is to accumulate below 0026, distribute above 0032, over the next week or two.  Wider spreads than usual.  Volatility should favor traders over holders for the short term.