Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1216. (Read 3314325 times)

Strong bearish signal.

Monero strong hands dumping their XMR to short coverer and fresh blood

Given the number of coins moved, do you think he has any left?

Y'all are unduly pessimistic.  This is not a high price. 2/3 of the initial emission are already gone, distributed.  Try to mine some XMR and tell me how long to pay for your gpu.

I think someone tried to short and they got squeezed. That is price Discovery. there is just too much demand and not enough Supply for the market to support a lower price. As long as 20K buyers come in on a regular basis and remove Supply we are not going to be able to retrace. One day it will turn bearish. Probably after a significant overshoot. Today is not that day. This price is not that price.

And my bullishness is not because of the long-term value of Monero. Any present value discounting which deemed that the adoption of Monero in darknetmarkets was anything but a tail risk would be a multiple of the current valuation. My bullishness for the short-term is because of supply and demand. I admit that the evidence is limited and the error bars are huge but the best evidence is that we are currently visiting the central tendency of supply and demand curves.

Once demand flags a corrective retracement is possible. So far demand has been uninterrupted since the ides of May. Moreover the conditions are right for XMR to rise because the cost of XMR is not denominated in BTC. It is denominated in kilowatt hours. And as long as it keeps requiring more BTC to pay for that energy the BTC price will fluctuate favorably.

If the clearing price has risen 8% (in kilowatt hours) in the past month, it is probably because about 0.9% of the float has been removed from the market into reserves.  That can hardly be surprising, given the bfx flap.  I know that the event prompted me to reduce my market making stake, as it forced me to revisit the agent risk problem consciously.

Some targets for XMR assuming price stability in kWh, at us$2.20, depending on how far the btc bear goes:. Btc@$537 -> xmr@412k; btc@$444 -> xmr@500k.

Warz will start dumping any time now. Bear in mind we are now in his selling zone.

Not so overbought that it can't hold the levels, I think, or even rise significantly from here.  We've all seen it before.  Whether it is happening again at any given moment is always an open question.  When I look at supply and demand (albeit through a dark lens - you never know what is waiting on the sidelines) it seems likely to wander up for a while yet, which is consistent with the fundamental context of falling BTCUSD and crashing DASH.

Anyhow, it's good to sell on strength in small-cap instruments, so I am happy you found a comfortable exit for that fraction.  Personally, I look forward to the day when I can buy gold and productive real estate with XMR directly, without transiting the BTC-sphere.  That's my comfortable exit ramp.

I understand that english is not you first language so here is a friendly lesson.

You should say "I have sold" instead of "I have sell".  Sold is the past tense.

Even though I don't trade now I appreciate your posts because your predictions have been quite good.  I will assume you are talking about the relatively short term I won't have to consider a significant upturn for btc.  Given that, I think a correction to 28-33 is slim.  The voices in my head give 33 a possibility.  My voices vs your knowledge

We just touched the 5K/19btc sell wall @ 0.00385200, popcorn.

Edit: Before I could heat my popcorn the wall was bought 

I have sold a nice chunk of my stash. To me it feels a little overbought and Im waiting for a shiny correction (28-33 area) but who knows... If we are going moon its ok too.

Oh, I do love the dumps.  So long and thanks for the monero.

The 16% overnight gain was enough to shake a few out.  As BTC declines, the fiat-break-evens for XMR miners go up, denominated in BTC.  We are probably pretty close right now.  I am guessing most of the 100k or so shaken loose on the intraday spike was held-back mining stock which was waiting for a profitable sale price.  When that is gone, it is gone.  Until it is gone, we can't see the price of which you speak, since it is higher, lost in a sea of mining liquidity.

A question for those who watch:  Any evidence of rising short interest?

Just look last 2 months. beside 2 days when all alts had lots volume because of ETH, the rest days have relatively low volume for Monero. Price is to low that sellers would part from them. Moreno is in strong hands.  

Everything have price. So it also have Monero. If Monero will reach that price in next few days we will also see some increased volume. But i doubt that will happen. But who knows.

Germany too.  The co-op bank in Gmund am Tegernsee announced negative depositor rates last Friday.

Residents of Greece are now required to report their cash holdings, to the last Euro.  Solution:  Private currency.

Maybe rpietila can sell his Finnish homies on that.

In Finland one of the largest banks (Nordea bank) told today they are going to implement negative interest rates on the wealthiest depositors (for deposits over 1 million euros).
That could be one target group for Monero community - to sell the opportunity to store large amounts of money in digital form without paying any fees to the third party.

let's talk about it again in few days 

@sandiman

Noone is selling and that goes on for weeks. When someone wants to buy 20k XMR market shakes and price rise. In last 24h were 3 such buys. There will be many more next days.

You could call Monero Whale Marketmaker a Ring CT. If you want.

Monero is not Ethereum where are 82 million coins and there will be flood of them in upcoming years. Moneros will be rare.

Quoted from the announcement thread.

It many not have to do with Bitcoin. It could have something to do with Ethereum and Buterin style transaction reversals. How does one reverse a particular transaction if one cannot tell which transaction to reverse?

Edit: Blocksize issues in Bitcoin would not explain a Dash rally since Dash has similar Blocksize issues as Bitcoin. Blocksize issues in Bitcoin could however explain a Monero rally.

MAAM #27 Monero Ask Anything Monday

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4xu1tx/maam_27_monero_ask_anything_monday/

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0MQ update (by tewinget)

https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2564/0mq-by-tewinget?page=&noscroll=1#post-5247

Damn it, applause to the monero whale. This pump (that I would rather call correction looking at the chart) has no volume, no momentum.
Monero market makers are just short squeezing everyone (doesn't cost much for the moment), and unfueling their bags at the top of the trading range to all the guys they short squeezed, that are screaming "why the hell I didn't buy" and doing so (including some other fresh blood that is untering the market at the top, as usual).

disclaimer: i have no position in monero, but might take my first one in the coming days  

I am envious you lost them in a lake, mine are in a much worse spot.

410k won't shake loose any of mine but I might sell one at 500k just to see what it feels like.  Wait, 500k is just 1/2% of btc.  Cheap coins!

I really don't have the opportunity to trade.  My last buy was 9 days ago @309 on a dip and was looking for 320 after that but never got it.  I had been diversifying into btc this year by not converting all I bought into Monero.  Oh well.

As always thanks for your perspective aminorex.

Seems like supply is getting very tight again.  This can keep running.  Especially if dash crashes and the hot money flips into xmr.   Probably we can shake out some old monero at 410k though. 

Anything past 500k, and I will start dredging the lake, if I run low on  supply-side liquidity again.  If it goes parabolic, though, I will just give up on market making completely, and get ready to catch it on the retracement.  If btc keeps dropping, and xmr goes parabolic, that means I bring in usd, and scoop up monero on the downside overshoot. 

The worst case scenario is leveling up while my supply side is depleted. (Actual drops below, say, 320k, seem extremely unlikely right now.  But I try to be ready for 240k nonetheless.)