Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1365. (Read 3313576 times)

My guess is it was a short due to the spike in interest rates.
However, if I am wrong, the spike of interest rates was then due to lenders withdrawing the coins from lending markets.

Anybody has some clues whether last big dump was a short or real coinz?

The interest rates are up in XMR markets.
Wether the big lender has withdrawn coins from the markets or there is increased demand for Monero denominated loans due to massive shorting.

Shorting hurts Monero's market cap in short term but once the loan is repaid the coins need to be purchased with interests so in the longer run (max 60 days) it will help XMR. Even if the short is held longer than 60 days (refinanced), in the refinancing period interests need to be repaid so some kind of buying pressure will be in the marketplace at spot price.

Yeah, in an interview they said they only keep a small balance (relatively) in the hot wallet.
I wonder if it was that shorter or someone taking advantage of his position...

From a technical point of view the situation shows mixed signals: https://i.imgur.com/W1oex0F.png

The bullish case, shown by my red count, has the support of some nice hidden bull divs both on the 4h AO and the RSI between the previous low and the current low. Also, a typical ABC flat correction off the top might soon complete and currently fibs show a very nice A=C. Even with the latest huge dump the volume is still declining from the initial sell-off, which also supports a correction rather than a change of trend. Finally, a 4th wave typically ends up somewhere in the area of the previous 4th wave of a lesser degree, so, as long as we don't make considerably deeper LLs, this might be the case.

The bearish case, shown by my blue count, suggests that the impulse up from the bottom has finished. Breaching the upward channel, going below the 4h SMA200 (pink) suggest that a change of trend has taken place. Other evidence can be found on the higher timeframe charts: on the weekly the candle is back inside the Bollinger Bands and has a more than great chance of closing inside - this usually means at least a test of the weekly sma20 (currently at around .002); on the daily the dumping accelerated once price went below sma20 and closed below the lower BBand - this means that further acceleration towards lower levels is possible.

Guidelines say to never expect the trend (bullish until now) to be broken until there is enough evidence to suggest that it happened. More and more signals start pointing that it might already have...

Is it the size of my ego or why Monero seems to gravitate towards me?  

P.S. I am raising Moneros to Heuristic. Please feel free to tip him directly with the adress on my signature box.

I can't see how they could have so much liquidity in their hot wallet. More likely it's just that the market needed a heavier correction.

Could it be ShapeShift's XMR hot wallet balance that got dumped? They got hacked and only BTC/ETH is up and running again, other alts back online over the next Weeks.

https://www.reddit.com/r/shapeshiftio/

Wow. I log in and all my 285 bids are totally filled.  Didn't expect that. Kinda considering selling them all right here. Lock in a simple profit...

Good point. I wouldn't conceive of using humans as "wind up toys" (collateral damage)^* as a way providing that liquidity though. I hope for another means to that end.

^* I guess there is a skill in every thing even I perceive it to be mundane, just doesn't correlate to my interests. For example, I am researching right now the a novel design for a new programming language.

@TPTB_need_war

I'm not sure if I agree (by which I do not mean that I necessarily disagree) about the uselessness of (many) posts on this thread.

As you said, providing liquidity is a useful activity, and empirically Monero has had relatively high volume and relatively good liquidity (by which I mean strong order books) for most of its lifetime. Contrast that with coins that may have high volume during pumps, but turn into are ghost towns with pathetic order books the rest of the time.

This thread also happens to be the most popular alt discussion thread on the entire forum by a wide margin. Is that a coincidence, or is having a good, active venue where traders and long- and short-term speculators can communicate (sometimes seriously, sometimes more socially, sometimes ignorantly, sometimes informatively, sometimes manipulatively) part of what contributes to that liquidity?

I'm not sure it is really possible to separate out the factors that have made Monero as successful as it is.

It's certainly not for everyone though. If I were forced to consistently read the BTC wall observer thread, suicide would become an attractive alternative.

Precisely my impression of most of the useless posts in this thread.   You said it, not me.

I would not relish lacking any desire or ability to actually be working on development of something and instead expending my days watching bid / ask walls, which in the following context seems to be akin to watching paint dry or counting the mosquitos inside my grass hut.

Speculation is a productive activity. Even day trading is productive in the sense of providing liquidity. But pretending to be a day trader while being a conflicted shill (i.e. entirely handicapped from pursuing arbitrage), seems to be entirely pointless and/or some sort of objectiveless affliction of the incapable.

As you can see from the statistics, still a lot of shorts are taken out and mostly placed at the asks in the 305-310k zone. In case it will go down further we'll have at least some additional liquidity to catch the dumps.

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

Well then.

Glad I left low bids lingering, just in case - didn't expect to get them filled, but...

Nom Nom Nom! 

Let's see if it fills back up to 320 / 330 range now.. 

From what I've gathered most on these forums, is that anyone on bitcointalk (especially in the altcoin section) is desperate for attention or any thing that makes them seem "more wise" than the next person.  Fact is, is that no one knows what EVERYONE is doing; and even if they were in some "secret whale group" that can possibly manipulate the market, there is plenty of other whales that can possibly manipulate too.

I love how a lot of people say that they know some whale that is going to do something in the market, and then argues back and forth with other shit posters about who's whale is going to "win".  If you really knew someone is going to do a huge sell or a huge buy, you wouldn't proclaim it... you would quietly buy/sell, sit back and watch.

Bounced nicely off the 50% fib retracement level. Although, it would've been better if it stayed above that horizontal support zone of 320-330k.

Sometimes,

I wonder if all "the whale is going do to this, and whale does that talk" is either from desperate traders or its a whale, smart enough to act like a concerned trader.

Jeeze... wish I had more bitcoin on hand to buy at these prices.  I wouldn't expect this drop off to go below 27

My speculation:

Who ever dumped this low will buy back probably with 300% more $