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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1375. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
April 05, 2016, 03:30:04 PM
Thanks to TheKoziTwo, this is working properly again:

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

Unfortunately we cannot see what happened around the 30-40k dump.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
April 05, 2016, 03:27:15 PM
Well, I'm just a simple guy.

I look at the Polo markets today...bloody red everywhere.

Seemed like a perfect time to get some orders filled.  Added about 600 to my stash.  I was happy to get a couple hundy at .003518.  Good day to buy, I'd say.  Tomorrow is another day. 

Whoops.  Make that about 750 added.  Another order filled.  I'll take it.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
April 05, 2016, 03:26:02 PM
Well, I'm just a simple guy.

I look at the Polo markets today...bloody red everywhere.

Seemed like a perfect time to get some orders filled.  Added about 600 to my stash.  I was happy to get a couple hundy at .003518.  Good day to buy, I'd say.  Tomorrow is another day. 
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
April 05, 2016, 03:13:02 PM
I've seen this pattern play out enough that it is getting quite old.  
  
Whale sets up some big ask walls, and buyers chomp through them because fuckthisguy-amirite.  Then the whale dumps as much as possible and sets up a few final sell walls trying to squeeze the price down and rebuy what he sold at a lower price point.  
  
He either profits from the fear he generates or loses when the market rallies despite his manipulation.
legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
April 05, 2016, 02:48:49 PM
Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

Tempted to buy 20-30k. Hate shorters.
Don't hate shorters. Even if the shorter is right and the price drops he will need to buy his position back at some point, that creates support at low levels and prevents the price from falling too far. If the shorter is wrong he will be forced to buy and that can result in breaking through resistance levels and fuel a rally. Any trade activity is good as it creates more liquidity. High liquidity means it will be easier to enter or exit large position. That is good for everyone and encourages larger investments. Not to mention people eager to buy getting their bids fulfilled.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
April 05, 2016, 02:39:01 PM
I have been out, ill, for the past ~two weeks.  Now I have a backlog of work to do, and taxes upcoming. But I just had to come here to thank that seller:

Sir, thank you, for selling XMR to me at a marvelous discount.  Without people like you I would be significantly less wealthy.


Someone took out a short and sold in a desperate bid to push the price down.  He even stated he would do so, this type of manipulation seldom works. Some people got a real gift from our Crywhale.  The crypto hissy fit.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
April 05, 2016, 02:38:00 PM
Hehe, another 8k sell wall at 362.  Someone is doubling down on their Martingale Monero buyback strategy.  The price action on the sell side today resembles the tantrums of a bratty child, "Why won't you go down!!!?"  
  
Good, let's remove this individual from the Monero-verse entirely, ideally placing them in a net-short position so they can slowly watch that move against them as well.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
April 05, 2016, 02:33:25 PM
If y'all don't mind me pulling a quasi-hijack from the current subject, allow me to present an item well worth discussing. I actually was torn between posting it here and posting it in a new "General Discussion" thread, because the emerging use case might well be too big for Monero to handle atm. Even though Monero's tech fits this use case hand-in-glove, only Bitcoin has the ready-to-go whale-sized ecosystem and financial infrastructure to exploit this (as of now potential) use case.

First, the news item that got me thinking along the above lines:

Quote from: Associated Press
Trump proposes funding wall by cutting off remittances

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Donald Trump would force Mexico to pay for a border wall by threatening to cut off billions of dollars in remittances sent by immigrants living in the U.S., according to a memo released by his campaign Tuesday.

The memo outlines how Trump would try to compel Mexico to pay for a 1,000-mile wall if he becomes president.

In his proposal, Trump threatened to change a rule under the USA Patriot Act, an anti-terrorism law, to cut off funds sent to Mexico through money transfers known as remittances. Trump said he would withdraw the threat if Mexico makes "a one-time payment of $5-10 billion" to finance the wall."

The U.S. is home to about 12 million Mexicans, some living here illegally, according to various research organizations that monitor trends in immigration. They and other migrants use money transfer agents or banks to send money home, often with the objective of supporting their families.

The Mexican central bank reported that money sent home by Mexicans overseas hit nearly $24.8 billion last year, overtaking oil revenues for the first time as a source of foreign income. Cutting off those transfers would therefore represent a significant blow to the Mexican economy. Trump's campaign says that money "provides substantial leverage for the United States to obtain from Mexico the funds necessary to pay for a border wall."

"We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage," the memo reads. "It is time we use it in order to Make America Great Again."

Now, it could be argued that the above item is 100% nothingburger because Trump won't win the Presidency. That's a point, but consider these two counterpoints:

1) The fear engendered by the fact that someone like Donald Trump has come close to the Presidency;
2) The related, and more rational, fear that the Establishment politicians will act to cut off or heavily tax those to-Mexico remittances anyway. If Donald Trump winds up losing, all they have to do is wait a long-enough interval to credibly claim that they're not knuckling under to The Donald and then claim that they've "answered the just demands of the [Trump supporters]".

What's intriguing about this use-case is that it has the potential to be framed as moral to a much wider group of people than hardcore libertarians. Imagine the typical Dem who hears about a Monero-powered para-remittance channel for those immigrants, justified as a way to "fight xenophobia!" He or she would actually be torn. On the one hand, it would clearly be a dark-market operation whose reason for being is to evade a new tax. But on the other hand, it would be explicitly set up to evade a highly regressive tax placed on the backs of mostly poor immigrants. The fact that it'd be a dark money pathway explicitly set up to help a group of disadvantaged and recently-maligned group of people would elicit a lot of squirmy sympathy or even hand-wringy support amongst Dems who can't stand the Trump movement. As a "moral" dark market, it's far more bankable than is Agora or the now-defunct Silk Road.

And, to shift to admittedly callous dollar-sand-cents figuring, a Big Fat Tax on fiat remittances to Mexico would open up a much larger "liquidity cushion" than Western Union's fees do. Even if the net proceeds from a Monero remittance were to knock off 50% in fiat terms, that 50% would match a 10% fee with a 40% tax piled on top of it.

But I think the best way to sell it, to undocumented-immigrant communities who already have lots of good reasons to be stuck-in-the-familiar-rut cautious, is emotional. Present a Monero para-remittance path as a way to whack the Donald Trump piñata with your money.

To be frank, I know next to nothing about those communities and I have no connections to any of them; I know no Spanish. So in this sense, I'm talking through my hat. But feel free to comment on this idea.


That's quite a use case!

I just wonder if the average remitter and remittee in this situation would be comfortable with:

USD to BTC
BTC to XMR
XMR wallet to XMR wallet
XMR to BTC
BTC to MXN

Sounds more like a service one could sell, then use the technology inside the wrapper, so to speak, as the special sauce.

So I set up a lemonade stand, or possibly even a website, where people send USD.  I offer to deliver MXN (or USD) to their remittee in Mexico.  Then I do all the proper crypto converting and charge way less than the competition.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
April 05, 2016, 02:23:25 PM
I have been out, ill, for the past ~two weeks.  Now I have a backlog of work to do, and taxes upcoming. But I just had to come here to thank that seller:

Sir, thank you, for selling XMR to me at a marvelous discount.  Without people like you I would be significantly less wealthy.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
April 05, 2016, 02:17:08 PM
Can't promise it was quite that much, but I can only think of a few reasons to sell so much in one chunk:  
  
- Want to incite a temporary panic and buy back lower.  
- Want to start a new short off with a bang, hoping the market cooperates.  
- Want to legit offload a ton of XMR (unlikely).  
  
I'm betting one of our friends throwing a fit on previous pages has tried a gambit to acquire at a lower price.  Judging by the market absorbing the slap and rising back to the high 350's, and also considering that Monero has the greatest bull case it's ever had, I am more amused than worried.  
  
If someone wants to have a bit of fun, take a small risk here and buy up the order book until 380 and watch the shorts and synthetic-shorts squirm.  
  
(Disclaimer: I am a long Monero permabull, no trading advice implied, this post is for entertainment purposes only, acquire spot XMR and never part with it)

I speculate the tactic didn't work and we go up from here.  If it goes to 380 prepare to hear some major whining and sniffling from our crywhale.  
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
April 05, 2016, 02:12:53 PM
Can't promise it was quite that much, but I can only think of a few reasons to sell so much in one chunk:  
  
- Want to incite a temporary panic and buy back lower.  
- Want to start a new short off with a bang, hoping the market cooperates.  
- Want to legit offload a ton of XMR (unlikely).  
  
I'm betting one of our friends throwing a fit on previous pages has tried a gambit to acquire at a lower price.  Judging by the market absorbing the slap and rising back to the high 350's, and also considering that Monero has the greatest bull case it's ever had, I am more amused than worried.  
  
If someone wants to have a bit of fun, take a small risk here and buy up the order book until 380 and watch the shorts and synthetic-shorts squirm.  
  
(Disclaimer: I am a long Monero permabull, no trading advice implied, this post is for entertainment purposes only, acquire spot XMR and never part with it)
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 05, 2016, 02:10:50 PM
Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

Tempted to buy 20-30k. Hate shorters.

Bump it up.  Make it hurt  Grin  I'd wager that the book would fill up behind you, as it has not on the way down.  Sellers are still sitting at 365 looking down, saying WTF?  No way!
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
April 05, 2016, 02:10:01 PM
Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

Tempted to buy 20-30k. Hate shorters.

Personally I love them. They are working hard to feed my greed (I am a lender).  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
April 05, 2016, 02:07:46 PM
Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

Tempted to buy 20-30k. Hate shorters.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 05, 2016, 01:33:01 PM
Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
April 05, 2016, 01:29:11 PM
Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
April 05, 2016, 12:58:24 PM
If y'all don't mind me pulling a quasi-hijack from the current subject, allow me to present an item well worth discussing. I actually was torn between posting it here and posting it in a new "General Discussion" thread, because the emerging use case might well be too big for Monero to handle atm. Even though Monero's tech fits this use case hand-in-glove, only Bitcoin has the ready-to-go whale-sized ecosystem and financial infrastructure to exploit this (as of now potential) use case.

First, the news item that got me thinking along the above lines:

Quote from: Associated Press
Trump proposes funding wall by cutting off remittances

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Donald Trump would force Mexico to pay for a border wall by threatening to cut off billions of dollars in remittances sent by immigrants living in the U.S., according to a memo released by his campaign Tuesday.

The memo outlines how Trump would try to compel Mexico to pay for a 1,000-mile wall if he becomes president.

In his proposal, Trump threatened to change a rule under the USA Patriot Act, an anti-terrorism law, to cut off funds sent to Mexico through money transfers known as remittances. Trump said he would withdraw the threat if Mexico makes "a one-time payment of $5-10 billion" to finance the wall."

The U.S. is home to about 12 million Mexicans, some living here illegally, according to various research organizations that monitor trends in immigration. They and other migrants use money transfer agents or banks to send money home, often with the objective of supporting their families.

The Mexican central bank reported that money sent home by Mexicans overseas hit nearly $24.8 billion last year, overtaking oil revenues for the first time as a source of foreign income. Cutting off those transfers would therefore represent a significant blow to the Mexican economy. Trump's campaign says that money "provides substantial leverage for the United States to obtain from Mexico the funds necessary to pay for a border wall."

"We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage," the memo reads. "It is time we use it in order to Make America Great Again."

Now, it could be argued that the above item is 100% nothingburger because Trump won't win the Presidency. That's a point, but consider these two counterpoints:

1) The fear engendered by the fact that someone like Donald Trump has come close to the Presidency;
2) The related, and more rational, fear that the Establishment politicians will act to cut off or heavily tax those to-Mexico remittances anyway. If Donald Trump winds up losing, all they have to do is wait a long-enough interval to credibly claim that they're not knuckling under to The Donald and then claim that they've "answered the just demands of the [Trump supporters]".

What's intriguing about this use-case is that it has the potential to be framed as moral to a much wider group of people than hardcore libertarians. Imagine the typical Dem who hears about a Monero-powered para-remittance channel for those immigrants, justified as a way to "fight xenophobia!" He or she would actually be torn. On the one hand, it would clearly be a dark-market operation whose reason for being is to evade a new tax. But on the other hand, it would be explicitly set up to evade a highly regressive tax placed on the backs of mostly poor immigrants. The fact that it'd be a dark money pathway explicitly set up to help a group of disadvantaged and recently-maligned group of people would elicit a lot of squirmy sympathy or even hand-wringy support amongst Dems who can't stand the Trump movement. As a "moral" dark market, it's far more bankable than is Agora or the now-defunct Silk Road.

And, to shift to admittedly callous dollar-sand-cents figuring, a Big Fat Tax on fiat remittances to Mexico would open up a much larger "liquidity cushion" than Western Union's fees do. Even if the net proceeds from a Monero remittance were to knock off 50% in fiat terms, that 50% would match a 10% fee with a 40% tax piled on top of it.

But I think the best way to sell it, to undocumented-immigrant communities who already have lots of good reasons to be stuck-in-the-familiar-rut cautious, is emotional. Present a Monero para-remittance path as a way to whack the Donald Trump piñata with your money.

To be frank, I know next to nothing about those communities and I have no connections to any of them; I know no Spanish. So in this sense, I'm talking through my hat. But feel free to comment on this idea.

Great post!


By coincidence, the name Monero even sounds like something that you would expect to be focused on remittances to Mexico.  (At least it does to me).
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
April 05, 2016, 12:52:22 PM
If y'all don't mind me pulling a quasi-hijack from the current subject, allow me to present an item well worth discussing. I actually was torn between posting it here and posting it in a new "General Discussion" thread, because the emerging use case might well be too big for Monero to handle atm. Even though Monero's tech fits this use case hand-in-glove, only Bitcoin has the ready-to-go whale-sized ecosystem and financial infrastructure to exploit this (as of now potential) use case.

First, the news item that got me thinking along the above lines:

Quote from: Associated Press
Trump proposes funding wall by cutting off remittances

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Donald Trump would force Mexico to pay for a border wall by threatening to cut off billions of dollars in remittances sent by immigrants living in the U.S., according to a memo released by his campaign Tuesday.

The memo outlines how Trump would try to compel Mexico to pay for a 1,000-mile wall if he becomes president.

In his proposal, Trump threatened to change a rule under the USA Patriot Act, an anti-terrorism law, to cut off funds sent to Mexico through money transfers known as remittances. Trump said he would withdraw the threat if Mexico makes "a one-time payment of $5-10 billion" to finance the wall."

The U.S. is home to about 12 million Mexicans, some living here illegally, according to various research organizations that monitor trends in immigration. They and other migrants use money transfer agents or banks to send money home, often with the objective of supporting their families.

The Mexican central bank reported that money sent home by Mexicans overseas hit nearly $24.8 billion last year, overtaking oil revenues for the first time as a source of foreign income. Cutting off those transfers would therefore represent a significant blow to the Mexican economy. Trump's campaign says that money "provides substantial leverage for the United States to obtain from Mexico the funds necessary to pay for a border wall."

"We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage," the memo reads. "It is time we use it in order to Make America Great Again."

Now, it could be argued that the above item is 100% nothingburger because Trump won't win the Presidency. That's a point, but consider these two counterpoints:

1) The fear engendered by the fact that someone like Donald Trump has come close to the Presidency;
2) The related, and more rational, fear that the Establishment politicians will act to cut off or heavily tax those to-Mexico remittances anyway. If Donald Trump winds up losing, all they have to do is wait a long-enough interval to credibly claim that they're not knuckling under to The Donald and then claim that they've "answered the just demands of the [Trump supporters]".

What's intriguing about this use-case is that it has the potential to be framed as moral to a much wider group of people than hardcore libertarians. Imagine the typical Dem who hears about a Monero-powered para-remittance channel for those immigrants, justified as a way to "fight xenophobia!" He or she would actually be torn. On the one hand, it would clearly be a dark-market operation whose reason for being is to evade a new tax. But on the other hand, it would be explicitly set up to evade a highly regressive tax placed on the backs of mostly poor immigrants. The fact that it'd be a dark money pathway explicitly set up to help a group of disadvantaged and recently-maligned group of people would elicit a lot of squirmy sympathy or even hand-wringy support amongst Dems who can't stand the Trump movement. As a "moral" dark market, it's far more bankable than is Agora or the now-defunct Silk Road.

And, to shift to admittedly callous dollar-sand-cents figuring, a Big Fat Tax on fiat remittances to Mexico would open up a much larger "liquidity cushion" than Western Union's fees do. Even if the net proceeds from a Monero remittance were to knock off 50% in fiat terms, that 50% would match a 10% fee with a 40% tax piled on top of it.

But I think the best way to sell it, to undocumented-immigrant communities who already have lots of good reasons to be stuck-in-the-familiar-rut cautious, is emotional. Present a Monero para-remittance path as a way to whack the Donald Trump piñata with your money.

To be frank, I know next to nothing about those communities and I have no connections to any of them; I know no Spanish. So in this sense, I'm talking through my hat. But feel free to comment on this idea.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
April 05, 2016, 11:49:54 AM

This is inspiring - I am filled with pride watching those in power stand up for individual right to privacy.  We are right now deciding on the world we want to see in the future - a global surveillance state where no new ideas can prosper due to fears of censorship and repercussions, or an enlightened society of 'individual kingdoms' where everyone gets to decide their own level of involvement with the greater objectives of the species.
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