Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1376. (Read 3313576 times)

If you are as legendary of a coder as you say, have you considered working on the Monero code some and offering some commits?  Perhaps you can help bolster and accelerate development of what you admit is the best solution thus far.

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On the subject of price rises - I think we could see much larger rises, at least once more in our lifetimes.  We have a miracle combination of a critical mass of individuals all aware of the advantages of cryptocurrency combined with a maturation of the technology.  
  
I can see Monero 'stagnating' in the single and double digits of dollars for many years (even though this would still be a significant rise from current levels)...  but I can also see a meteoric rocket from something like $4 a Monero in 2016 to $40,000 a Monero by 2018.  It will be the next 'tulip mania' and everyone will be screaming to get in.... right before Monero has an awful crash from $40,000 each down to $4,000 each in 2019 and is declared 'dead'.  These kinds of things can happen frightfully fast once a critical mass is reached.

I think there will be a coin or possibly several coins that will experience bitcoin-like meteoric rise.
Even if XMR is not the one.

You see, if you assume crypto currencies will take over the world in coming years/decades, it cannot be that the largest crypto has marketcap of only in billions of dollars. If you look at the small currencies, their marketcaps are in 10¹² rather than billions (not to mention any major currency).

Therefore if a currency starts pretty much from the scratches, it will give a huge leverage to the wealth.

Therefore, by stating "there will be no more bitcoin 2009-2013" is correct - there will be even bigger rises on the horizon (assuming once again crypto currencies will take over the trade and the current monetary system).

Yeah, I think you're absolutely correct with everything you say above.

People tend to get mesmerized by patterns in life.  The only pre-viewed pattern that seems to fit in crypto is Bitcoin, specifically the meteoric rise that happened in 2013.  Personally, I think that was a unique confluence of events that is unlikely to repeat in our lifetimes.  Too many factors have changed.

Kids hopping the ETH train view it as their birthright to have THEIR successful crypto rocketship to fortune.  Facts be damned.

I still think the story has yet to be written about crypto, in general, and whether or not it can scale to mass adoption (and maybe shed that nefarious label...I think it can).  I also think you're absolutely correct that the real money is NOT investing in all these random tokens.

I don't think there will be another Bitcoin circa 2012-2013.  

I was trying to remember where I had seen an interesting blog post by Professor Dave Anderson (who is on the quoted linked page):

http://da-data.blogspot.com/2014/08/minting-money-with-monero-and-cpu.html?view=sidebar
http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/hefuc/proposal.html

Is it because they think Ethereum is getting more development than it really is? Because it is seems reasonably clear from the technological facts in the Ethereum Paradox thread that Ethereum's development is mostly useless. Or am I hallucinating?


I am going to guess that we have a confluence of:

1. N00bs who really can't understand the technology and only think in simple soundbite buzzword terms.

2. Growing impatience/frustration about reaching the Bitcoin promise of mass adoption.

3. The wet dream of acquiring the next Big Thang in its nascent stage. Disguising a guaranteed P&D and lying to oneself about how that prevents it from ever having the network effects to be the next Big Thing, seems to be the delusion du jour.

Whereas, I think if there is any demand for parking capital in a decentralized, permissionless coin with the best open source development for minimizing risk, I am thinking Monero and Bitcoin are at the top of that list and what Bitcoin gains in terms of liquidity/widespread acceptance it gives up some to Monero in terms of its scalepocalypse. Also RingCT will add damn good privacy.

But since all these user adoption markets (including Bitcoin) are really still tiny, I doubt we have significant non-tinfoil-hat demographic serious money investing in tokens and the serious venture capital was going into ecosystem startups. So it is here that I think Bitcoin is kicking ass on every altcoin that aren't even with an ear shot. Mention crypto currency and the mainstream investors probably roll their eyes and say "nefarious".

When ever I write or think about this, I get frustrated and want to just go back to working on my project because I don't really have anything good to say. Let's see what others have to say and if they push their biases aside and comment rationally.

I know smooth argued that over the long-term methodical open source wins, and I argued that over the short-term Monero's long-term could be disrupted. I don't want to start another flame war. I haven't delivered any usable crypto. Again this stuff frustrates me, so head down is my best response.

Very interesting.  Thank you.

Don't you think zcash is a factor in this?  Maybe I'm misreading the tea leaves but the ethereum market cap seems to indicate that people are more comfortable funding development via premine / taxed mining rewards than not having any subsidies and slower development.  (XMR and Dash would be another comparison ... and those are two coins where the economic winner is clearly not the technical winner).

Most of bolded is explained by the dispostion effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_effect

Interesting biases/theories that are related to this are the endownment effect and prospect theory. All boil down to behavioral finance, which is in my opinion an interesting subject.

Done.

Post of the Week right there.  Fascinating topic.

Some of it is due to the power of the anonymity of an internet forum.  People simply don't interact here in the same way they would in a localized, less anonymous environment.

Related to that, I suspect that people assume it negatively impacts their credibility when they admit to making mistakes about backing the wrong horse.  There is no real incentive to admitting one made a mistake, especially if that makes other statements one makes (anonymously) less well-received. 

There may also be an element of something like a selection bias.  If you're currently holding a bag, it's easy to believe that it's about to turn around.  My guess, which is pure projection because I've done this, is that you keep holding some coin on which you're way underwater, not because you believe the hype you believed when you bought it, but because you HOPE for that hype to take hold again, if even for a day, so you can get out with less pain.  If you haven't sold at a loss and realized those losses, again, there may be no self-admission that it's a bag you're holding.

Finally, I think it's REALLY EASY to be infected by a common problem among gamblers and speculators.  When you're successful, it's because you're smart.  When you are not successful, it's because you were unlucky or it's due to manipulation.  So our "winning" trades are due to our brilliance, which we will shout to the rooftops.  Our "losing" trades are just bad luck and not worth mentioning.  That totally happens IRL, as well.

This would be a great thread for the Alt Discussion board!

They are not in the market for Monero. They want to get rich quick which makes them ripe for manipulation and falling for the good story and pump. They have to learn by fire and only some will readjust their perspective. I don't see any solution to that even if you eliminated the scams they would go find them some where else, but I am trying to think of ways to present data more objectively to help some open their eyes.

Edit: If serious money moves into crypto, they will surely see Monero is the investor's choice.

I think many people are looking for the next huge adoption coin. So they are ripe for bullshit about smart contracts, etc.. Monero afaics is targeting at this point (near-term) more to investors than to users (apology if Monero's long range plans chart is not imprinted on my mind). Although more of the former could form the economy-of-scale to drive more of the latter as it did for Bitcoin (e.g. XMR.to and did that precede and form the idea for ShapeShift.io?), although Monero's main use case (for now) is anonymity and investment afaics.

Edit#2: let us not forget how much work developing crypto is. Monero has a solid open source methodical forward movement. I see other coins as quick flames, e.g. Come-from-Beyond's 12 Java files source code for Iota. I am a programmer so I understand how the man-hours pile up on this shit. To sustain that coding effort for one or two devs, is very intense. I did that in the late 1980s and again in late 1990s; and both times it was a huge sacrifice (eating and sleeping at your desk 14 x 7 for years). I tried to gear it up again in the late 2000s but mid-life maelstrom made it implausible. Trying to gear up for the late 2010s one more time. Much older now. This isn't easy but if it is fun then that is the key. Nobody will do this well and sustained if they aren't enjoying it. Appears to me Shen-noether and fluffy are enjoying this.

There are too many scam coins out there. Those coins divert the funding flowing into Monero, so the price is low.

Monitoring the short-term exchange(s) noise continuously can be very stressful.

Monero won't have Bitcoin's scaling problem until the transaction rate and market cap are much higher. Interim it should have an upgrade to RingCT, so I think it is given that 2016 - 2017 Monero will have a very significant rise as priced in BTC. Clearly XMR has broken out above of the downwedge as priced in BTC. I do think we still have a correction in BTC coming though, so I'd be keeping some dry US dollar powder on the table for a few months before going all in.

Beyond that it gets murkier. Because for example, I presume I will launch in 2017 with a real solution to the economies-of-scale economics of the scaling problem but even I recognize there is a long way to go between that plan and the actual accomplishment, so even I can't predict with 100% surety that event, much less all the other variables in play.

I don't see any other altcoin in 2016 ready to displace Monero as the free market, reliable alternative for parking money escaping the accelerating collapse of the peripheral markets (outside the USA) with Europe ready to march over the cliff after the BREXIT vote. I might have a Seedr IPO within 2016 at best, but that will be for the corporation not the token (which will be separately fair proof-of-work launched).

I am not referring to other pumps that are approaching as I can't predict the timing irrationality of gamblers, scammers, and the n00b prey who are learning by fire. I am referring to those well informed, serious investors who need to hedge against Bitcoin's scalepocalyspe and increasing centralization of mining especially 65% pool control in China. Look around and there is no other option with a CPU friendly hash function that is ready for prime time. Note I have not analyzed for example Lisk and Waves. I presume Lisk is more smart contract nonsense. Waves appears to be about colored coins, but I haven't studied thoroughly. We don't know yet when Zerocash (Z.cash) will launch and whether it will really be ready for prime time. One would presume it will have issues given the inexperience in crypto-currency of the developers.

Fluffypony et al, IMO now is the time to double-down on your coding effort and get the upgrade out as well as the GUI (if that is still an issue).

To others and their altcoins, I am not saying you have no chance to see a free market driven (not pump scam) rise in price also. On a case-by-case basis.

Disclaimer: I haven't really been paying close attention (because my head also needs to be in the sand on my own work) and others may have more well researched opinion.

sometimes there are stories in other sections of btct (here too), but for the most part theres really no reward mechanism for coming here with a losing story. most people here come to make money. most people stay here to make money.

i would imagine the reason that such stories are rarely heard is because typically sob stories wont make you richer here. what will provably make you more money is more money. you could try lobbying for legislation, enforcement or control if you dont have money.

control is probably much easier had by scamming. and not much happens as far as enforcement unless its over a certain marketcap amount.

legislation, you seem to have made the point that its on its way in two years, a while out

apart from 'male ego', theres no real reason to share a sordid story.

Probably, but I think it's easy to forget how few of us (real people) there are in a sea of scammers and shill accounts all trying to defraud one another.

Additionally, there's a difference between people who are generally interested in cryptocurrency and its future and those who simply want to make money trading it. The latter tend to get bored and disappear after losing their shirt a couple times.

+1
Well, i also thought i can stack up my stash with trading (nOOb trying to "read" the candels), lost a few €k on Monero and now i am getting back my losses by ASIC trading to make up these lost Moneroj. Time, a month or two, will tell if i succeed in doing so.
I also learned it the hard way, like i always did, and i am glad to watch people sharing their knowledge and learning from them, like we all do 

"Errors are there to be made, the main thing is to learn from these!"

I made a lot (like $10k) buying Dogecoin from $300 per million all the way up to $1800 per million.  Then as it fell I gave a lot of it back.  
  
Then I moved half of that money into Nyancoin and let it sit.  
  
Today those are both relatively worthless investments, so you could say I lost quite a bit.  
  

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Today I am happily and successfully 'bagholding' cryptonotes but I don't fault my losses from the animal-coin era.  I learned a lot about crypto, and it only cost me a few thousand dollars.  That's tuition well spent.  Perhaps if cryptonotes take off we might even see a long awaited ROI from that tuition.

Calm down, everybody in here is nervous about Monero so don't let it grab you too. Just take a cup of tea, make your predictions and trade as you like 

RFC:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/better-metric-for-altcoin-adoption-marketsize-than-manipulated-marketcapvolume-1426481

Wish the CC news sites would put some effort into doing a study on this. To put some realistic sober data out there instead of the incessant prostituting of half-assed research in articles pumping shitcoins to newcomers.