Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1377. (Read 3313576 times)

Exactly my thoughts, it is mostly embarrassment and that male pride. No one is inclined to share their bad trades but tons of fake gloating goes about in the altcoin scene and crypto in general.

To me this is easy to answer. They left the scene altogether.

I can tell a personal story here, about some guy I met locally and sold Bitcoins p2p a while back. He told me he was using to buy some hot P&D coin, which was in the process of a moon shot at the time. He bought Bitcoins from me several times, until the P&D coin collapsed. Then I never saw or heard from him again.


The fact that big losers often just quit and become invisible helps perpetuate the game. We're still here, and there are still plenty of P&D scams. But at the same time growth of the crypto community is limited. We chew up and spit out a lot of newcomers.

I think it is because it is a topic victims find embarrassing and would rather forget? We are males (mostly here) and I presume we don't like to be perceived as weak or having failures of judgement.

I didn't mean that it would, only that most people won't bother. If you have a strong need, then you might.

*raises hand*

I find it surprising we haven't seen any crypto funded Venezuelan e-sports teams which also mine coins for profit.

What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?

The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?

Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.

Why would being semi-pro diminish your ability to be anonymous? Because you need access to cheap electricity at-scale? Micro-hydropower could probably provide that if you are willing to amortize the fixed cost investment over a period of years and could lease the access from a rural landowner. Not saying though that anyone has that level of motivation to be mine anonymously at-scale.

I think you are correct it is the permissionless quick entry for small timers that is most compelling.

Maybe not. Only really useful for small timers if you only need a small amount of coins though. I do think that some newcomers do this to obtain coins in order to be able to experiment, making it a nice onboarding tool (and then they may bother with exchanges if they want to obtain larger amounts later). For larger amounts it is impractical as you would need to become a semi-pro miner to mine enough.

It is a loss when you obtain your coins anonymously without needing to exchange through fiat? That is probably worth something extra to some people, especially for an anonymous coin's target market.

Let's say you want crypto-currency in Venezuela or Russia where it is currently afaik illegal and the Gestapo may be monitoring you. And then the coming capital controls in the West probably 2018.

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

Let's cut out the personal attacks and sniping and stay on topic. The moderation rules of the thread (and also, though not as enforced, the forum rules) do not allow hostile trolling.

This is directed to no one individual in particular

I have condensed 822 pages of angst into one easy-to-read post.


Current and Future Developments That Will Shape XMR's Future

GUI wallet becomes available
Current Likelihood : 99%
Projected Timeframe : 12 months
Impact on XMR : Bullish

XMR devteam completes all Development Goals and Research Goals
Current Likelihood : 80%
Projected Timeframe : Unknown
Impact on XMR : Bullish

XMR available for trading on major Chinese exchanges
Current Likelihood : 25%
Projected Timeframe : 36 months
Impact on XMR : Very Bullish

Major Online Retailers Accept XMR for Purchases
Current Likelihood : 5%
Projected Timeframe : 60 months
Impact on XMR : Bullish

XMR reported by Mainstream Media
Current Likelihood : 5%
Projected Timeframe : 60 months
Impact on XMR : Bullish

New Cryptonote-based coin developed which is technologically superior to XMR in all aspects
Current Likelihood : 10%
Projected Timeframe : Anytime
Impact on XMR : Bearish

Quantum computing fully matures, defeats all known safe elliptic curves
Current Likelihood : 5%
Projected Timeframe : 30 years
Impact on XMR : Very bearish

XMR slides into oblivion despite significant efforts in technological innovation and marketing
Current Likelihood : 33%
Projected Timeframe : 5 years
Impact on XMR : Existential Problem


More to come ...


All numbers above are derived from reading "Dragon Well" tea-leaves. YMMV. IANAP ("I Am Not A Programmer").
This does not constitute trading advice and has not been vetted for accuracy.
Please consult your friendly* relationship manager at GS/JPM/UBS before making any financial decisions.

* - only when you wave money in front of them

How "decentralized" the mining actually is would be hard to know. There are certainly some big miners, but they don't seem to shut out small timers. We can only infer much of it from indirect indicators such as newcomers who join the community and mine. Old timers probably mine some too, even if if not professional miners. I don't mine much any more but I have a computer or two I leave going. Mostly this doesn't happen with Bitcoin although some old timers do run semi-obsolete ASICs at a loss on principle (though mine are fully shut down). This gives the whole Monero mining scene a very long-tail feel to it.

Botnets exist but claims of rampant massive botnets have always been doubtful to me, and I worked out some numbers in a recent post on this thread that supported reasonably strongly that it is unlikely. Small botnets (putting aside ethical issues of botting) add to decentralization.


It is a plausible claim. It is certainly true that almost anyone can mine, at worst at a small loss, and in many cases at a small profit. When at a loss, the loss is generally small enough in absolute terms that suggesting people just mine if they support the coin and want it to succeed is not absurd, and some actually do it. The proposed idea of "egalitarian mining" from the white paper seems to have held up reasonable well after two years.

I presume XMR's mining is more decentralized since there is yet no ASIC and afaik it is as CPU friendly as GPU in terms hashes per Watt. Given that 65% of Bitcoin's mining is run through Chinese mining pools and within that perhaps a large portion of the hashrate is centralized amongst ASIC mining farms, I assume Bitcoin's market float is more manipulated than Monero's.

Does that make sense? Is Monero the most free market crypto currency right now?

I guess we can nominate wpalczynski our prophet as his predictions about you whining came true.  Nice show man! I do not know what your aspirations are but I am not the one selling at these price points.

+1, we should put the ad hominems aside and stick to a more qualitative discussion. I'd also like to see statements, whether bearish or bullish, backed up by analysis/arguments, may that be fundamental analysis, technical analysis or a mix of both. Ad hominems are simply childish and will make this thread look silly to readers and/or outsiders.

I got ignores going and you can disable the avatars. I need the sig to check my sig

I speculate bananas.

Why not exercise the ignore button for those you don't care to read.  Without it, I would quit this forum.  With sigs turned off, and a huge ignore list, its not so bad.

Regardless how much trolls want to troll or whales want to whale, it seems Monero has constant developmental growth and we are just now moving from an experimental to usable phase.  When the GUI is released it will open up the doors for non-technical developers to get into Monero and start actually using it.

On a difficulty scale of 0-10 with 10 being the most difficult.  I would rate Bitcoin a 3 and it took me about 3 months to understand it and 6 months to get my ah-ha moment where I realized it would actually be useful.  Coins like XMR and ETH are in the 7-10 complexity range and you can't just expect anyone to pick it up and start using it right away.  

I've been following XMR since 2014 and only recently have realized the true value of the coin.  In my mind, the value of the development team, fundamental robustness and flexibility of the technology are the strong points compared to other coins.  I wouldn't say XMR has a strong community yet as there has been hardly any marketing to help people understand that the technology exists, but it seems 2016 will be the year that starts to change.

Everyone investing in XMR now is doing it as pure speculation because they either believe in the goals of the project or think they can make a quick buck.  Either way, we are all here together and we should try to keep it civil between us.  Most likely, we are all social outcasts and nerds anyway so lets leave that stuff IRL and escape to our dreams of crypto millions online together.