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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1374. (Read 3313576 times)

full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
April 05, 2016, 07:05:11 PM

How is it even remotely similar?  Please help me see what you keep talking about.  I think anyone that says this chart looks like the previous top must be spreading FUD and talking their book.



They aren't the same, just kindof similar.  The new rise is slower, and the dump since the top less severe, at least so far, which is a good sign.  I hope it remains that way.

I hold some Monero, though I have no margin position.  I'm just scared right now, and most of the rest here seem convinced it is continuing higher.  I did sell a bit out of fear, but not many.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
April 05, 2016, 06:52:50 PM
Next pump to 460-480K within 1 week confirmed by now too many support @ 350K
legendary
Activity: 981
Merit: 1005
No maps for these territories
April 05, 2016, 06:52:20 PM
Well, the shorter must be having a bad time. If you buy 30.000 moneros right now, the price would propel to 38ksat, so he would be losing a nice chunck, plus interest. And as price recovers the shorter gets more and more REKT tokens for himself.

Popcorns  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
April 05, 2016, 06:49:18 PM

Most of bolded is explained by the dispostion effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_effect

Interesting biases/theories that are related to this are the endownment effect and prospect theory. All boil down to behavioral finance, which is in my opinion an interesting subject.

Very interesting.  Thank you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terror_management_theory

Those holding inevitably worthless bags of Dash or whatever use a variation of this to rationalize waiting for a miracle.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
April 05, 2016, 06:34:16 PM
This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery

Or maybe Monero 200k is incoming, and this is just like the top from last year at 430.  Chart looks very similar, though not identical.  No one here wants to admit this possibility.  I bet everyone was bullish at that last peak too, just like this.

How is it even remotely similar?  Please help me see what you keep talking about.  I think anyone that says this chart looks like the previous top must be spreading FUD and talking their book.

full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
April 05, 2016, 05:35:51 PM
Additionally I've heard XMR chatter spreading around the Internet and approaching critical mass - the secret is out and we are gradually approaching a mainstream awareness of Monero.  
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11424592

ctrl+f Monero

Wow nice, Shen Noether even posted in that thread.
member
Activity: 114
Merit: 10
April 05, 2016, 05:31:34 PM
Additionally I've heard XMR chatter spreading around the Internet and approaching critical mass - the secret is out and we are gradually approaching a mainstream awareness of Monero.  
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11424592

ctrl+f Monero

For anyone who hasn't heard of HackerNews, they're pretty big in the programming community, and a bastion of rational discussion. I personally check the front page (and the comments section, that's the best part) multiple times a day, and I know many other people in my profession do as well.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
April 05, 2016, 05:20:35 PM
This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery

Or maybe Monero 200k is incoming, and this is just like the top from last year at 430.  Chart looks very similar, though not identical.  No one here wants to admit this possibility.  I bet everyone was bullish at that last peak too, just like this.

Oh no!  Fear, uncertainty, doubt!   Wink  
  
Look at the volume compared to last year and consider the environment- Monero is nearly ready for the big leagues now, unlike then.  The core engine is much sleeker and there will soon^tm be a GUI.  Things like Ring CT and multisig are going to make it even better.  
  
Meanwhile the subreddit has more than twice the number of subscribers from that time period and we are getting more exposure all the time.  The emission is way lower as well, and Poloniex (main exchange, and featuring an XMR market) isn't some young startup anymore - they are one of the standards for a crypto exchange.  
  
Additionally I've heard XMR chatter spreading around the Internet and approaching critical mass - the secret is out and we are gradually approaching a mainstream awareness of Monero.  
  
Like Mark Baum, I will be the one to stand up and say: "Zero.  There is a zero chance we return to the levels of last year."
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
April 05, 2016, 05:19:07 PM
I don't get the need for panic here, as long as the horizontal support (320-330k) holds the trend is doing just fine. Trendlines break all the time and that doesn't necessarily result in a reversion of the trend. Subsequently, a new trendline gets found. Furthermore, they are kind of subjective, whereas horizontal supports are much more clear and thus objective in my opinion.

Also, if it really were people shorting they have to buy back at some point, which increases liquidity.
member
Activity: 114
Merit: 10
April 05, 2016, 04:41:13 PM
Thanks to TheKoziTwo, this is working properly again:

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

Unfortunately we cannot see what happened around the 30-40k dump.

2016-04-05 21:36:02   218665.51021900   0.00000000   0.7098% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:35:01   199385.18516500   0.00000000   0.2963% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:34:01   199437.19460200   0.00000000   0.2963% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:33:02   198659.08590300   0.00000000   0.7794% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:32:01   198659.08590300   0.00000000   0.7794% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:31:01   179417.86767100   0.00000000   0.3273% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:30:02   197102.22078100   0.00000000   0.7854% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:29:01   197102.10396900   0.00000000   0.7854% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:28:01   178199.05722600   0.00000000   0.3293% / 0%

That's some pretty intense whipsaw in the weighted average..
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 05, 2016, 04:39:51 PM
This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery




So it would seem, looking just at XMR.  Looking at Poloniex, it is a sea of red. 2 months of green has been nice, but is some of that new money pulling out again?  Is ETH dump part of it, or cause of it?

   It's been over 3 hours since the initial 30K short.  Impatiently awaiting the fast recovery  Wink
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
April 05, 2016, 04:38:03 PM
I remember Monero topics all over this place a couple months ago, seems like that hype has faded. Silently progressing with development?

Maybe the smart people dumped near 400 already, and now they are waiting for us all to give up again and buy back.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 500
April 05, 2016, 04:37:00 PM
I remember Monero topics all over this place a couple months ago, seems like that hype has faded. Silently progressing with development?
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
April 05, 2016, 04:35:02 PM
This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery

Or maybe Monero 200k is incoming, and this is just like the top from last year at 430.  Chart looks very similar, though not identical.  No one here wants to admit this possibility.  I bet everyone was bullish at that last peak too, just like this.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
April 05, 2016, 04:31:51 PM
This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery


legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 05, 2016, 04:23:43 PM
Brutal artificial sell off today.  My only guess is that someone wants to squeeze the living shit out of longs before the next major movement north.  We've seen this before a couple of times.  
  

This is what happens when people here troll someone who has bought Monero (Crowdwhale), and make him want to leave.  He sells and we all have to sit here looking at our -7% Monero.  

I am very sad that that happened.

Better to have periodical shakeouts on the way up, allowing for a more stable overall rise.  Rapid exponential growth with no major retrace along the way typically results in one big drop back to the bottom.  

edit:

look at that buy wall now Wink  (flashed and gone, 400BTC @ 340)  enough to make any further shorting a bit sketchy, anyway.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
April 05, 2016, 04:20:17 PM

This is what happens when people here troll someone who has bought Monero (Crowdwhale), and make him want to leave.  He sells and we all have to sit here looking at our -7% Monero.  

I am very sad that that happened.

No one trolled him.  He came in flinging around a series of temper tantrums because the price wouldn't move the way he wanted, demanded 'the boogeywhales' cater to him or he would leave and go back to Forex, and no one obliged his ego.  Monero ill needs holders like that.  If that was him dumping his stash I would say we are better off without those XMR being in his hands.  Monero is the most sophisticated financial asset in the world - if you dump it because the other holders don't pander to your whims, then I'm not sure you deserve what comes next anyway.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
April 05, 2016, 04:16:04 PM
Brutal artificial sell off today.  My only guess is that someone wants to squeeze the living shit out of longs before the next major movement north.  We've seen this before a couple of times.  
  

This is what happens when people here troll someone who has bought Monero (Crowdwhale), and make him want to leave.  He sells and we all have to sit here looking at our -7% Monero. 

I am very sad that that happened.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
April 05, 2016, 04:11:37 PM
Brutal artificial sell off today.  My only guess is that someone wants to squeeze the living shit out of longs before the next major movement north.  We've seen this before a couple of times.  
  
No free rides on the Monero train!  I remain bullish, as always.  If you hold XMR, keep holding it - there has never been a stronger bull case for it.  Don't let the big guys bully around the stack - if you were considering a large long position now is definitely the time get it - it makes me sick watching whales take money from the emotional small fish.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
April 05, 2016, 03:40:44 PM
Well, I'm just a simple guy.

I look at the Polo markets today...bloody red everywhere.

Seemed like a perfect time to get some orders filled.  Added about 600 to my stash.  I was happy to get a couple hundy at .003518.  Good day to buy, I'd say.  Tomorrow is another day. 

Whoops.  Make that about 750 added.  Another order filled.  I'll take it.

Whoops again.  Make that about 1100.  Better get some more BTC to that wallet!
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