[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1404.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

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Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 28, 2016, 06:02:41 AM

People tend to forget that Poloniex offers 2.5x margin. As a result, even if someone holds 20k he can leverage that up to 50k. Combine that with all the profits made on ETH I am not really suprised by the huge buys and subsequent huge dumps.

Bear in mind also that the market makers selling the coins for the pumpers and then putting equivalent buy order to support will fuel even more leverage. Thus with only a little equity you can control pretty heavy margin position if you keep growing it and the markets move to your favor. That's a double edged sword: if the margin traders start to compete with short positions the coin can be destroyed but if they compete with long positions, the coin at least theoretically can go towards infinity pricewise.

papa_lazzarou

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Quote from: CryptoAddict on March 28, 2016, 05:52:43 AM

If people perhaps could actually store the coins themselves we would have a different scenario.

People can actually store the coins themselves since the beginning. I am sorry, but the lack of a official core GUI is no excuse to leave most of your coins sitting in an exchange.

Quote from: CryptoAddict on March 28, 2016, 05:52:43 AM

It's almost as if the wallet release has been kept on hold intentionally to let certain players load up easier. I truly hope this is not the case.

This issue has been raised ad nauseam and explained more or less thoroughly every time. Please research and stop the FUD. Or don't. Whatever.

papa_lazzarou

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Quote from: RyanLiang on March 28, 2016, 05:45:22 AM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 28, 2016, 03:45:12 AM

Quote from: jmpFCE2 on March 28, 2016, 03:22:06 AM

So , XMR was pumped just before the Block Reward Change and you expect people to jump in?

The blockreward per minute remains the same. The blocktime went from 1 to 2 minutes and the blockreward was thus adjusted accordingly.

So there should be no effect in the total block reward per day. But the total block size will reduce.

Correct. The daily emission stays the same, and the number of new blocks per day in the blockchain will halve.

However, the effect of these changes on the blockchain growth is offset by the new enforced minimum mixin of 2 (larger transfers) and the minimum block size that was raised to accommodate that enforced mixin.

However number 2, some other measures to reduce the blockchain growth were also implemented. No new dust will be created and there are ways to clean the existing dust (which will eliminate it effectively as time goes by). So this will have a positive impact.

It is hard for me to predict the net effect of all these changes on blockchain growth.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

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People tend to forget that Poloniex offers 2.5x margin. As a result, even if someone holds 20k he can leverage that up to 50k. Combine that with all the profits made on ETH I am not really suprised by the huge buys and subsequent huge dumps.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: RyanLiang on March 28, 2016, 05:45:22 AM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 28, 2016, 03:45:12 AM

Quote from: jmpFCE2 on March 28, 2016, 03:22:06 AM

So , XMR was pumped just before the Block Reward Change and you expect people to jump in?

The blockreward per minute remains the same. The blocktime went from 1 to 2 minutes and the blockreward was thus adjusted accordingly.

So there should be no effect in the total block reward per day. But the total block size will reduce.

Correct, there is no effect on block reward per day. The blockchain size will be slightly smaller since there will be fewer block headers.

EDIT: papa_lazzarou is correct to point out below that there are numerous other factors affecting blockchains size, and the net effect is difficulty to estimate.

CryptoAddict

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Activity: 115

Merit: 10

Huge dump, and it hit 321 just as predicted by that guy who set up the betting. And within the very same day. It's all too suspicious. It never got below 321 so guess he is technically still "wrong". I accused him of pulling numbers out of his ass. Maybe his nostradamus-ass has more numbers for us? I won't complain this time. Forecast for this week? Lol

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 08:59:44 PM

Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions.

Indeed it is. I think majority here already knows XMR has some very big hands. On a positive note we have 1 whale less now (theoretically). I remember how the books looked and the single biggest buyorder to soak his dump was 10k~ish, some 5k's and rest "dust". This is not an accurate way to guess players but gives us some idea.

We can blame 2 years of exchange trading without a wallet. Most people store coins on exchange and result is whales can just peacefully swim around opening their mouths from time to time to take in some plankton(xmr). If people perhaps could actually store the coins themselves we would have a different scenario.
It's almost as if the wallet release has been kept on hold intentionally to let certain players load up easier. I truly hope this is not the case.

RyanLiang

newbie

Activity: 39

Merit: 0

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 28, 2016, 03:45:12 AM

Quote from: jmpFCE2 on March 28, 2016, 03:22:06 AM

So , XMR was pumped just before the Block Reward Change and you expect people to jump in?

The blockreward per minute remains the same. The blocktime went from 1 to 2 minutes and the blockreward was thus adjusted accordingly.

So there should be no effect in the total block reward per day. But the total block size will reduce.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: jmpFCE2 on March 28, 2016, 03:22:06 AM

So , XMR was pumped just before the Block Reward Change and you expect people to jump in?

The blockreward per minute remains the same. The blocktime went from 1 to 2 minutes and the blockreward was thus adjusted accordingly.

jmpFCE2

full member

Activity: 157

Merit: 100

Can you explain how this earns Trust?

jmpFCE2

full member

Activity: 157

Merit: 100

So , XMR was pumped just before the Block Reward Change and you expect people to jump in?

iCEBREAKER

legendary

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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: aminorex on March 27, 2016, 01:53:25 PM

It takes three days for me to buy btc because coinbase is incompetent and has no customer service.

Kraken and Gemini are reputed to be more competent than Coinbank.

newb4now

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Quote from: ArticMine on March 28, 2016, 01:48:24 AM

Quote from: smfuser on March 28, 2016, 01:05:41 AM

Quote from: slapper on March 27, 2016, 09:08:36 PM

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR?

He obviously is psychic and found a way to match names with the addresses containing the largest balance on the Monero rich list:

http://moneroblocks.info/richlist

Is it true? Of course not, but since when was truth a requirement for slapper making a claim?

explorer

legendary

Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: ArticMine on March 28, 2016, 01:48:24 AM

Quote from: smfuser on March 28, 2016, 01:05:41 AM

Quote from: slapper on March 27, 2016, 09:08:36 PM

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR?

With so many lost in boating accidents, there are likely many discrepancies, despite his sly magic.

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

Quote from: smfuser on March 28, 2016, 01:05:41 AM

Quote from: slapper on March 27, 2016, 09:08:36 PM

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR?

smfuser

member

Activity: 82

Merit: 10

Quote from: slapper on March 27, 2016, 09:08:36 PM

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

Quote from: r0ach on March 28, 2016, 12:18:04 AM

...
In non-adversarial conditions, which doesn't apply to anyone attempting to exhibit cartel behavior. Since you can't force people to propagate blocks, and the speed of light is a limiting constant, the bigger the blocks, it seems like the bigger the attack vector.

The speed of light is not the limiting constant here. The speed of electromagnetic energy traveling down a telegraph line in say 1856 is actually comparable to the speed light in a fiber optic cable today. The bandwidth is however very different.

Edit: The bandwidth of a carrier pigeon has increased conservatively by a factor of 10¹⁰ in the last 40 years. The speed at which the carrier pigeon flies has not changed.

smooth

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Activity: 2968

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Quote from: r0ach on March 28, 2016, 12:18:04 AM

Quote from: smooth on March 27, 2016, 11:48:19 PM

Thin blocks are a reasonable ad-hoc alternative to the relay network.

In non-adversarial conditions

I don't think so, and I've thought about it. There may be adversarial issues with the specific implementation in whatever Bitcoin forks are implementing it (I don't keep track). Of course, you can't entirely get around the possibility of isolation, but if you can manage to disseminate 500 KB blocks somehow (which you assumed), then you can disseminate suitably-compressed blocks of the same size.

r0ach

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Activity: 1260

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Quote from: smooth on March 27, 2016, 11:48:19 PM

Thin blocks are a reasonable ad-hoc alternative to the relay network.

In non-adversarial conditions, which doesn't apply to anyone attempting to exhibit cartel behavior. Since you can't force people to propagate blocks, and the speed of light is a limiting constant, the bigger the blocks, it seems like the bigger the attack vector.

smooth

legendary

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Quote from: GingerAle on March 27, 2016, 11:59:57 PM

Imagine - 5 years from now - Some whizzbang scientist finds a way to increase the bandwidth of the internet 100 fold within the existing architecture

I don't know that we need that. I recently got a postcard offering symmetric 3 gigabit internet service (expensive, but fractional service is competitive)

GingerAle

legendary

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Quote from: r0ach on March 27, 2016, 11:29:55 PM

Quote from: ArticMine on March 27, 2016, 10:20:45 PM

Bitcoin cannot scale, until the fixed blocksize issue is fixed.

There is no fixed block size issue because by most people's estimations, something like the relay network is required for over 500k-ish blocks. Because there is currently no alternative to the relay network that isn't opt-in, this just makes it a cartel creation type of tool to exclude various adversaries from interacting with the network at all.

What do you expect, Monero is just gonna scale to 100mb blocks with no side effects? Monero does not solve Bitcoin scalability issues. There really is no huge scalability problem in the first place. I estimate around 8MB blocks is what is needed to have $10kish transactions and higher valid for on-chain use as a major world currency. That's just within capability of catching mainstream consumer support.

But the difference is that Monero doesn't artificially limit the scale for either political (is it a coffee chain or a remittance network?) or structural reasons (hard block limit needed for fees with a limited emission). The Monero code allows the system to grow "organically" with the technology.

Imagine - 5 years from now - Some whizzbang scientist finds a way to increase the bandwidth of the internet 100 fold within the existing architecture, and samsung has just released 5-dimensional SSDs that read/write at 5 TB / second.

Do you know which network would automatically scale to exist within this new hypernet? Monero.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1404. (Read 3313576 times)