Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1401. (Read 3313576 times)

Massive 25BTC buywall at bittrex 

Yep, XMR will keep climbing the stairway to heaven. I don't see any critical damage on the chart.  This was/is a healthy correction and much needed cooling-off period.

All the moaning about botnet FUD is ridiculous.  No more such things as 'bad hashes' exist than such things as 'bad Moneros'.  PoW is necessarily fungible, just like the e-cash it creates.

Bitcoin has been mined by more types of botnets than anything else.  Even stuff like routers and game updates were doing it.  And Honey Badger turned out just fine.   

If Bitcoin "falls from dominance" (e.g., it's surpassed by Monero as #1 in market value), but its own valuation remains similar or increases, presumably you wouldn't expect that to have a disastrous effect on investor confidence in all cryptocurrencies? Are you assuming that if any cryptocurrency surpasses Bitcoin in market value, Bitcoin's own value must collapse?

(Edit: I'm not suggesting that Monero surpassing Bitcoin is likely.)

Back to speculation: The price is creeping up slowly slowly and probably preparing for the next leg upwards. These days of under previous high have shown to be a good buying opportunities this year. We will see if this trend continues.

That's right.

And your wealth is such that you are too frugal to buy yourself a coffee while out on the town as you wrote a while back.

Your forum icon reminds me of Tokyoghetto because he used the same picture before.  The guy who worked on Wall Street then came into crypto and bought a random shitcoin called the Hobonickel. I told him the Hobonickel was a weapon of financial terrorism.  I think Max Keiser stole that quote from me.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4975466

Yup. And the worst part in the story: I get wealthier every day, the passive income comes in all the time and I spend less than I "earn".  

What angle?  The Eth hashrate is at an all-time high along with the price, so logically it probably drew some botnets off Monero.  I don't believe the botnet statistic taken at that particular time is a good benchmark of the norm for Monero, as they are probably leeching off Eth at the moment.

"Being part of the Monero community" lol, look at the original Monero thread, I was there on like page 2 of the thread with Tacotime.  Right at the coin release, I was saying block time should be higher, CPU algo will be detrimental to the economics of the coin, and if you're going to have inflation as a "feature", you might as well go for 1% in order to replace coins lost per year and subsidize transaction fees.  The inflation thing is the slippery slope, and if I was making a coin today with what I know now, I would go with zero, but that's a different topic.  I was attempting to back higher for Monero because of the fast, 4 yr mine period that creates a make or break it moment in a short period of time, so the higher inflation would pick up the slack for that aspect that I consider to be somewhat of a mistake.

At the time, I was on somewhat of an ideology that the purpose of a currency should not be inflationary or deflationary, but equilibrium.  If there's going to be bazillions of coins lost over time due to strong encryption blunders, death while holding coins and no way for outsiders to recover them, etc, then crypto would be more like a problematic hyper deflationary system than mild deflation.  Since then, I believe inflation is really just a social engineering scheme that people can avoid by doing things like using stocks or indices as a store of value.  As long as some outlet exists where people can resist your social engineering, it's kind of pointless, and inflation is arbitrary central banking anyway.  The number Monero picked is kind of  trivial where it doesn't even matter, but the fact that it exists creates the slippery slope that it can be increased by some random Joe at any time without really even breaking a social contract since the value is so arbitrary in the first place.

Yea, Monero probably will be the next 10x coin.  The problem is, someone inorganically tried to engineer that bull run way too close to BTC halving.  That's a logistics mistake on their part, not mine.  Ethbutters barely got away with doing it by the skin of their teeth and this Monero run came way later.  I personally never would have attempted what Ethbutters did trying to move that market so high close to halving, so whoever thought it would be a good time to do it on Monero definitely needs more experience in these markets.  I never stated that Monero was going to go up 10x in one day or one week.  All alts are going to get slaughtered during the BTC halving pump.  You can either constantly move in and back out of alts for no reason over and over during the volatility, or just stay out of the alt market till it's  over.

Hash rate is now up about 50% over the past 6 months, and has fully recovered from the fork.

I hate the guy.  He annoys the hell out of me bragging about his free lunches and his real estate rental empire.

Assuming it's in New York
I might be able to go.  Can you provide a link...?

Another alternative investments meetup is coming this week.  I was thinking of showing a pitch deck reporting 8x gains from 14 Jan 2015 to 24 Mar 2016, and describing my upside targets under various contingencies.

EDIT: typo and precision fixes.

The flip flopping bothered me at first, but not so much any more. His signature essentially admits he is guilty of the allegation. I respect honesty.

The bolded part is insulting the intelligence of the people in that thread. You suggest we are circle jerking and immediately hate anyone who expresses criticism or bearish sentiment.
If you get some hate, which is a strong word, or at least disdain, it's because of your flip-flopping following your own position.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=attention+whore

(BTW, I don't necessarily mean that in a negative way. Creating attention-getting threads and posts helps keep the discussion vibrant. People like r0ach and a few others who do so intelligently are an asset to the forum.)

r0ach, what is your angle here?

First you made a thread saying Monero would be the next 10x coin.  Then you made a thread saying every alt would crash.  Now you're complaining about Monero mining being botnet driven, even though I think the recent hard fork pretty much eliminated the possibility that most of the hash rate was from a botnet, as smooth astutely explained.


If you are interested in being part of the Monero community and holding some Monero long term, that's great, but if you are just here to trade and post bullish things when you are long and bearish things when you are short, then well, we can already look through years of TrueCryptonaire's posts to see that.

I think this has already happened to at least one whale.  The guy who was putting up 100k XMR sell walls back down below 200k. 

Big walls ended up getting eaten, and then we rocketed higher.  I havent seen any walls nearly that large since, so I am guessing this guy got left behind, and now has either no xmr or a significantly reduced amount that he is no longer willing to part with.

Again, the recent price decline didnt seem like one whale dumping, but rather 100 traders all dumping on the same day as they got spooked by a bitcoin rise, and then some of them dumping put the other's margin positions in peril, which resulted in a chain of dumps to eliminate margin.

Or maybe the botnet theory was shallow reasoning (CPU-friendly alg, therefore botnets) and wrong (or at least exaggerated) all along.

In 2014 there were loud and frequent claims of the mining being botnet-dominated. Well it turns out that was in time proven untrue and most of the mining was being done with cloud computing (verified by at least two sources).

Yes there are botnets but they don't really have zero cost, and seem to be a limited share of the network. The more mining is done in a bot node the more likely it is to be disinfected by its owner. Other uses of botnets may have a better return on investment, and putting mining on such a node increases the attrition rate (i.e. depreciation cost) and may therefore be unprofitable. Many bot nodes are older and inefficient, and have a very low hash rate even before factoring in the necessary throttling for stealth (and certainly after). The current network is about 60K mid- to high-end desktops (or a slightly lower number of midrange GPUs). As bot nodes that would be hundreds of thousands or millions. If such botnet(s) existed it would be making headlines. It probably doesn't exist.

Empirically mining is reasonably profitable even if you pay for electricity (with some combination of low rate and/or efficient equipment). If there were a lot of botnets with 'zero costs' the difficulty would be driven higher (which might even be a good thing from a security perspective). Botnet mining capacity seems somewhat self-limiting, for better or worse. So, again, such botnet domination of mining probably doesn't exist.

All of which was true even before Eth, btw.

Also, at the present time mining is a rather small portion of market activity, something in the neighborhood of 1% of daily trading volume. Speculators and holders are much more important market participants now.

Instead of whining about dumps or people "controlling the market" why not try to profit from it ? If we presume your theory is true, whoever is controlling the market acquired the XMR's (or BTC) used to control that marked from the market itself, fair and square. And guess what? You could do the exact same thing!

Speculators gather an asset when nobody wants it and what does that help with? It prevents the price from going too low! Without speculators, XMR might have completely died off. On the other end of the spectrum speculators will sell when the price is in bubble mode thus ensuring that the price will not go too high. Increase in speculators also results in more stability and smaller price swings as they all compete for profit and their profit margins goes down.

If you have a market with thousands of speculators the "big whales controlling the market" will lose their power as they will be eaten alive by all the small fish acting against them. For example a big dump may be eaten up by speculators who all "take delivery" of their coins. A whale is not beyond the laws of nature. There is no magic here. It's all supply and demand and if you buy all what the whale dumps, he will eventually be left with zero.

I also expect less large dumps over time as the price goes up due to the third party risk involved with leaving money on exchanges.