Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1401. (Read 3314669 times)

I think this has already happened to at least one whale.  The guy who was putting up 100k XMR sell walls back down below 200k. 

Big walls ended up getting eaten, and then we rocketed higher.  I havent seen any walls nearly that large since, so I am guessing this guy got left behind, and now has either no xmr or a significantly reduced amount that he is no longer willing to part with.

Again, the recent price decline didnt seem like one whale dumping, but rather 100 traders all dumping on the same day as they got spooked by a bitcoin rise, and then some of them dumping put the other's margin positions in peril, which resulted in a chain of dumps to eliminate margin.

Or maybe the botnet theory was shallow reasoning (CPU-friendly alg, therefore botnets) and wrong (or at least exaggerated) all along.

In 2014 there were loud and frequent claims of the mining being botnet-dominated. Well it turns out that was in time proven untrue and most of the mining was being done with cloud computing (verified by at least two sources).

Yes there are botnets but they don't really have zero cost, and seem to be a limited share of the network. The more mining is done in a bot node the more likely it is to be disinfected by its owner. Other uses of botnets may have a better return on investment, and putting mining on such a node increases the attrition rate (i.e. depreciation cost) and may therefore be unprofitable. Many bot nodes are older and inefficient, and have a very low hash rate even before factoring in the necessary throttling for stealth (and certainly after). The current network is about 60K mid- to high-end desktops (or a slightly lower number of midrange GPUs). As bot nodes that would be hundreds of thousands or millions. If such botnet(s) existed it would be making headlines. It probably doesn't exist.

Empirically mining is reasonably profitable even if you pay for electricity (with some combination of low rate and/or efficient equipment). If there were a lot of botnets with 'zero costs' the difficulty would be driven higher (which might even be a good thing from a security perspective). Botnet mining capacity seems somewhat self-limiting, for better or worse. So, again, such botnet domination of mining probably doesn't exist.

All of which was true even before Eth, btw.

Also, at the present time mining is a rather small portion of market activity, something in the neighborhood of 1% of daily trading volume. Speculators and holders are much more important market participants now.

Instead of whining about dumps or people "controlling the market" why not try to profit from it ? If we presume your theory is true, whoever is controlling the market acquired the XMR's (or BTC) used to control that marked from the market itself, fair and square. And guess what? You could do the exact same thing!

Speculators gather an asset when nobody wants it and what does that help with? It prevents the price from going too low! Without speculators, XMR might have completely died off. On the other end of the spectrum speculators will sell when the price is in bubble mode thus ensuring that the price will not go too high. Increase in speculators also results in more stability and smaller price swings as they all compete for profit and their profit margins goes down.

If you have a market with thousands of speculators the "big whales controlling the market" will lose their power as they will be eaten alive by all the small fish acting against them. For example a big dump may be eaten up by speculators who all "take delivery" of their coins. A whale is not beyond the laws of nature. There is no magic here. It's all supply and demand and if you buy all what the whale dumps, he will eventually be left with zero.

I also expect less large dumps over time as the price goes up due to the third party risk involved with leaving money on exchanges.

You really seem to have an agenda.

They're probably all just temporarily mining eth till the bubble implodes, or some other random coin in a bubble.

With the recent hardfork it was proven that not more than 10% (+-5% for more accuracy) of the hash rate is botnet. Botnet and GUI are just an excuse to manipulate the market according to individual positions. Everyone knows that there will be traders controlling the price of the market, but the very culture of holding and respecting prices is lacking. There are other things broken and burnt bridges that is going to take a lot longer than bringing a GUI.

If we use jargons like network effect, then we must also accept that a LOT goes with it and what constitutes building it. Simply throwing technology superiorities is never going to cut it.

Funny that a guy would have 300 btc just sitting there on an exchange and ready to be fat-fingered away.  Somebody with 300 btc to throw around would know better.  Are you sure that's what happened?  It almost seems like some person had two accounts and was on both sides of the trade.  Could have been on purpose.  So either it was an idiot or somebody who was crazy like a fox.

xx

Uh-oh, I'm sure XBT hodlers are shaking 

via Imgflip Meme Maker

Yup.  Me, too.  I've got more USD on the way to an exchange in case this happens again.  I was loving it.  My only regret was that I didn't have $10K more ready to go as I watched the carnage.

Nothing at all.

Some idiot at btc38 accidentally put in an order to buy Dash for 95 btc each, instead of an order to buy at 95 dash per btc.  He spent about 318 btc on 3.353 Dash.  The market of btc/dash on btc38 is very thin, its mostly traded in CNY there.

This trade is greatly impacting coinmarketcap's computation of the Dash price.

Stuff like this happens frequently and never has any lasting impact, exceptfor the guy who got 300 free btc, and the guy who is out 300 btc.

Man you gotta wonder what they hell is going on with dash ...

Marginal costs of botnet miners is nothing, or relatively nothing = dumping intensifies.  It's a disseservice to the honest miners and coin ihhabitants to allow them a gateway into the coin.  Whether this whole CPU friendly algo will pay off in the future in some manner, I have no idea, but it definitely did not in the past for overall coin health.  I think I was mentioning this would happen the 2nd day the coin was released.  

The price would be way higher than now with a GPU advantage algo.  First reason, better network effect because history has shown GPU mining always wins in that regard..  Second reason, the marginal cost blackhole doesn't exist, which is kind of related to the first.

Well I, at least, am now full on XMR.  Here's hoping there is more BTC on the side-lines.  I won't lighten up until we pass 420ks again, however long that takes.

My monkey, FWIW, is bullish on XBT\USD, expecting a run-up into July, starting last Friday.  He also wants SPX, gold, and oil to decline for a week or so.

I think the bottom is in. Longs have been squeezed out, shorts should be in the process of closing, and new longs will open. Those of you with extra BTC on Polo should be putting in support at 300k.

Guys, I want to calm down. I am still bullish on Monero and historically that has been a good sign. I have been bearish for so long time which made me perhaps the most hated person in this thread, but also I have been right thanks to my bearishness for so long time.
I am still looking forward to BTC-XMR parity which we will reach probably in the years to come step by step. Time to start stocking Moneros again.

You didn't answered my question but bitjedi did.


It is possible that a bit then 24h ago people panicked there will be a BTC mega bull run and they tried to get as much BTC as they could at as low price as possible.

But even if that was a case, I still think there is  high possibility all that volume was made just by small group of traders with lots of BTC that works close together.

All alts and also Bitcoin is in part held by gamblers or speculators. Simply because holding them is a speculation.  That is not just bad. But also have positive effect. Speculators and day traders raise volume. While trying to get profit they manipulate market and make it more volatile. That brings more attention to the coin from possible future supporters.   Bitcoin would not have today's strength if there wouldn't be December 2014. And without speculators Dec.2014 would not happen.

I think a lot more gamblers has decided to gamble on Monero by going margin long than usual prior to this weekend, which is why Monero got hit especially hard.  Its possible that they went margin long Monero based on the Azure news, driving us from 350k to 420k.  They were then all forced out at once in a panic, temporarily pushing us down further than would result from an orderly selloff.

I prefer it when Monero is not held by gamblers, but rather by those who intend to hold it long term, so this looks like a nicer time to buy, now that most of them got wiped out.

Lightwallet works fine for me.  If that node is down you can point it to your own daemon.