Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1402. (Read 3314669 times)

Plausible theory.  By the way, the guy whos stated assumptions you are responding to is just trolling I think.  I believe Monero has a very diverse distribution which gets more diverse with every "Whale Dump" as the troll called it.

It makes sense since all high volume alts that are traded on Poloniex were starting selling at same point of time.  But is that expected at $10 price raise?  2%?   I see such price movement almost every second day.

I agree with this evaluation.  The drop was precipitated by the quick rise in BTC and the margin longs disappearing quickly.  The consensus is that BTC is going to have a mega bull run if it breaks this wedge that's been forming for the past year to the upside.  We got right to the upper limit of the wedge in a few minutes in BTC so if I was short BTC long anything else, I would be really scared.  However, most whales don't need the silly margin to trade and so they technically short BTC from their own BTC holdings, but not leveraged long and do not need to sell into panic.

Personally, I think XMR will go up in value if BTC also goes up.  The coin seems to be missing a few big features to get it more mainstream adoption.  Friendly GUI wallet, marketing budget, and simplified instructions for non-technical people to use it.  Technically, it seems superior to all other coins out there from an underlying technology standpoint.

--- On another note, has anyone actually got Lightwallet to work?  Is the default http://node.moneroclub.com:8880 node even working?

Some in this thread complained that the price drop this weekend was large Monero holders dumping on the little guys.  I have to disagree.

What we saw this weekend was not a whale dumping, it was the unwinding of Monero margin long positions, triggered by a $10 rise in BTC which spooked the longs into selling.  Yes, there were a lot of Monero shorts open, but there were probably even more longs, as various traders were gambling on the price movement. 

The initial BTC rise spooked some traders into dumping their margin long, and the drop put others into margin calls and they sold as well, and it continued down to 321k, at which point pretty much everyone with a risky margin position had dumped already.

Monero performed worse in the 'altcoin crash' that some of the other alts because it had more margin long positions open than them, due to recent price rises and bullishness, so once the panic selling started, it had more selling pressure. 


This does not imply that Monero whales were dumping.  It does not make sense that Risto or some other Monero whale who has a lot of btc would panic at a $10 btc rise, and dump his Monero.  It makes complete sense that some daytraders, or should I say gamblers, who were betting on Monero were put into margin call territory and panic sold.  Complaining that the monero whales do not protect the little folks and dump on them is incorrect.

We have unloaded a bunch of margin longs and traders from the Monero train now.  It also seems that we got a lot of shorts out of Monero as well, so deleveraging has occurred. 

The coin is not 'in the wrong hands', and we do not 'need zcash', which is an absurd comment because zcash is a premine while Monero is a fair distribution, and all of the Monero holders either paid for it or mined for it, and do not have coins that they can dump at any price and still profit.

You mean the chart oscillates in price? I'm shocked. Nice try slapper

A fond goodbye to our friend and contributor, warptangent

https://forum.getmonero.org/1/news-announcements-and-editorials/2519/a-fond-goodbye-to-our-friend-and-contributor-warptangent

R.I.P.

I dont think that this is the reason but in the case it is:
There are many many other choices for that significant audience and those potential backers. Please let this one for those that prefer truth than bullshit. And i am sure when and if time comes, they will hop on again or regret it.

XMR has an emission schedule on the aggressive side, thus has (and has had for its entire life) plenty of new supply for miners to sell. This will slowly change as more are emitted. Whether price will follow is of course another matter entirely.

This is probably (tm) unrelated to any "abrasive trutherism", though I don't discount that such has had some effect on historical pricing. Everyone on (the great) Bitcointalk being friendly unicorns and existing in perfect harmony wouldn't have had much effect on the new daily supply available to sell, however.

I'll pick up another 10k coins if we test 0.003

It takes some time when fiat will hit bitstamp. 

Alienating significant audience in bitcointalk and potential backers due to abrasive trutherism in the forums and social media had nothing to do with it.  After all there are no other chains with more coins emitted already with more value/coin right? 

Seems to me "dump city" is likely to correspond quite well with the emission (haven't tried to fit the two together, just speculating).

Nice play on words there ArticMine, but you know well that I am not knocking on the tech or development work (some dev personalities, maybe, but I am appreciative of work).

smfuser, seems like you have been suckered into this coin, so you may not know the complete 2 year history. You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

Yes! It is the same one, still open, didn't resolve!   (As you maybe saw i also posted hours before but restarted for perfect consistency as of a typo, since title and timeline mention April 20 but decisison logic first said April 8 and is no more editable even when only the author did bet. So the easiest was to restart corrected. I would have been fine to have both/another date.)   Prediction markets seem interesting when anyone can write/design a subject for specific goals, such as rewarding competence/balance but penalizeing manipulation. Others (example predictious.com) seem not to offer that but only predefined ones, just like Futures/Options Provider. Betmoose has a principle that authors are also rewarded through a portion of the fee

The orderbook looks somewhat healthier right now, does it?

I wouldn't feel comfortable with the bet simply because the first one doesn't seem to have been resolved fairly (though you had no counter-betters).  The bet was that Monero would dump below 321, not to it.  We touched 321 on the price charts.  We didn't hit 320.99999 as far as I can see.  
  
But I do like these prediction markets and I want to encourage their continued use.  I will consider throwing in some scratch.

Noone dares to risk more than $2  for my $70 jackpot, seriously? I thought we agreed that it could be several times more in some years and that at least some portion of the pump from March 20 form 0.00275 to 0.004 was based on real news?  (And i'm willing to raise the jackpot)

[shaggy voice] "Like, that's the most reasonable thing I think I've ever heard anyone ever say."  [/shaggy voice]

I think i can say with some amount of confidence based on all available information that I'm pretty sure that I can speculate that the GUI will be released soon.

I don't think there is a set date but you can check the github links, which unfortunately I don't have right now,  to get a progress report.

inca thing is that latecomers bought Monero cheap. Current price is about my average buy, but my problem is that Bitcoin is at half price as it was when i bought Bitcoins to buy Monero. So when Bitcoin will go back to 600 USD i will be back in greens.

But i am on medium term not worried of either of them.