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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1445. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
March 18, 2016, 06:41:07 PM
Bump, none of the pools have upgraded yet.

To clarify this, you meant that none of the unupgraded pools have upgraded since your previous post. In fact most of the pools already upgraded some time ago.


Yes, thanks for clarifying my comment. I'll post a more clarifying comment in my bump post tomorrow.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 18, 2016, 06:05:21 PM
How much of a downward motion would this create if they decided to get out?  

A bid is evidence of a capability to buy in.  An ask is evidence of a capability to sell out.  Showing evidence of funds on one side does not imply funds on the other side.  One must resort to second-level gaming to infer the opposite.  Additional levels of gaming just result in compounding the inversions of logic with exponentially decreasing probability of accuracy.

500 btc would sweep the book to .004.  The offer has left the book anyhow.  The effect was an upturn in the very short-term price trend.

Sometimes a large order will result in the market fleeing the wall.  Sometimes it will result in the market seeking out the wall.  It depends on what polar flavor of liquidity is yearning to breathe free, and at what price.  So far from the top of the book, it will cause ripples, but can actually stabilize things while everyone waits for a shoe to drop.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
March 18, 2016, 06:04:05 PM
Wow I just looked at poloniex today the bid volumes more than doubled!
And its all in one buy order that can be removed at the whim of one entity.

How much of a downward motion would this create if they decided to get out? 

It's far enough from market price that I don't think it would have much effect.  More of a curiosity than anything.  Now if it moved up, closer to market, that might have some stimulative effect.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
March 18, 2016, 05:57:38 PM
Wow I just looked at poloniex today the bid volumes more than doubled!
And its all in one buy order that can be removed at the whim of one entity.

How much of a downward motion would this create if they decided to get out? 
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
March 18, 2016, 05:02:35 PM
Well said iCEBREAKER.

This buy wall is really insane why is there a wall at least as big as the natural bid volumes

No one can know for sure, but I would guess its either to tempt big holders who want out to sell to them at decent discount, or to prop up trading above the wall so that they can exit their existing position at higher price.
Those reasons are probably the most likely. Also since there is no confirm button when you trade on poloniex, an accident where you market buy or sell could potentially happen. To minimize the risk many will place either a buy order or sell order far away from current market price. I do this myself, in fact more than 100 BTC of that wall is mine. But I also placed my bid exactly on that price for fun. Which brings us another reason. Sometimes people place a big wall for lulz. It's fun to see people's reaction to crazy things.

I haven't been on Polo in many months and it boggles the mind this is still the case.

BTW Einstein had something to say about ether.  I bookmarked it a while ago before I heard of ETH, never read it because I forgot about it.
 http://www-history.mcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/Extras/Einstein_ether.html
member
Activity: 109
Merit: 10
March 18, 2016, 04:42:07 PM
It's so this retard can go off again. Smiley

https://vid.me/ima7

Wow that video.  When was that?  Did he regret it?

rekt. what a tool. lol.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
March 18, 2016, 04:35:50 PM
It was the sound of Tears falling in the rain. Cheesy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoAzpa1x7jU

L8r's gotta go gamble for real. Wink
hero member
Activity: 768
Merit: 505
March 18, 2016, 04:34:51 PM
It was a precursor to the 2015 rally. A few days after the guy dumped the price skyrocketed.

funny times Cheesy. Learn the lesson ... dont play with monero xD it may hurt your pocket.
legendary
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1004
March 18, 2016, 04:32:38 PM
It was a precursor to the 2015 rally. A few days after the guy dumped the price skyrocketed.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
March 18, 2016, 04:30:48 PM
It's so this retard can go off again. Smiley

https://vid.me/ima7

Wow that video.  When was that?  Did he regret it?
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 18, 2016, 04:25:22 PM
I am still freaked out by the total volume in alts. Does it not seem fishy to anybody else?

I'm willing to accept the premise that it seems to be flowing from ETH as that dump continues. But if you look back to January 1st, the total market cap in alts has gone from less than a billion to more than $1.5 billion. That's a 30%+ jump and it's more than $500 million in new money.

Where is THAT coming from...and WHY? That's a pretty big reallocation of capital, but from where? Doesn't seem like it could be hedge funds and other financial players because Central banks are in stimulus mode.

margin trading leverage

I think this is the main thing that has changed. Polo is now the largest alt exchange and they just added margin trading several months ago. People woke up and realized they don't even need any new money to open new positions. And when they do open positions, they can open bigger ones with the same amount of capital.

Also Ethereum is something new that has attracted more new interest to the sector than anything in a while. Previous hot alts like Bitshares and Nxt were similar in their day, but that was years ago. Nothing since.

These two together have been explosive in terms of volume.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 18, 2016, 04:22:05 PM
Bump, none of the pools have upgraded yet.

To clarify this, you meant that none of the unupgraded pools have upgraded since your previous post. In fact most of the pools already upgraded some time ago.
legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
March 18, 2016, 04:18:07 PM
Well said iCEBREAKER.

This buy wall is really insane why is there a wall at least as big as the natural bid volumes

No one can know for sure, but I would guess its either to tempt big holders who want out to sell to them at decent discount, or to prop up trading above the wall so that they can exit their existing position at higher price.
Those reasons are probably the most likely. Also since there is no confirm button when you trade on poloniex, an accident where you market buy or sell could potentially happen. To minimize the risk many will place either a buy order or sell order far away from current market price. I do this myself, in fact more than 100 BTC of that wall is mine. But I also placed my bid exactly on that price for fun. Which brings us another reason. Sometimes people place a big wall for lulz. It's fun to see people's reaction to crazy things.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
March 18, 2016, 04:15:24 PM
It's so this retard can go off again. Smiley

https://vid.me/ima7
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
March 18, 2016, 04:12:03 PM
This buy wall is really insane why is there a wall at least as big as the natural bid volumes

For entertainment purposes.  Watching it market buy would be even more entertaining though.
hero member
Activity: 507
Merit: 500
March 18, 2016, 04:07:01 PM
This buy wall is really insane why is there a wall at least as big as the natural bid volumes

No one can know for sure, but I would guess its either to tempt big holders who want out to sell to them at decent discount, or to prop up trading above the wall so that they can exit their existing position at higher price.
member
Activity: 78
Merit: 10
March 18, 2016, 04:01:17 PM
This buy wall is really insane why is there a wall at least as big as the natural bid volumes
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
March 18, 2016, 04:00:03 PM
 
Quote
If you saw this wall and market bought Monero because of it, driving up the price, then you got tricked and are doing what the whale wants. 
And you got the moneroj you want, at a price you found acceptable.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
March 18, 2016, 03:59:36 PM
I think it's reasonable to assume that the big FUD storm regarding bitcoin blocksize had made more bitcoiners interested in diversifying into altcoins, I've notice a trend of high profile bitcoin figures voicing support for various altcoins or jumping on the BTC FUD train.

"FUD train" is a bit dismissive and papers over the fact that for the first time, Bitcoin is meaningfully handing key use-cases to alts. Core's roadmap that clearly has no regard for keeping on-chain fees as cheap as possible for as long as possible, is opening the door for alts to satisfy the demand for secure & cheap transactions. Further, Core stonewalling the community, and stagnating development that's actually meaningful to users is scary.

Thus, the key thesis that Bitcoin can and will adapt when necessary, and/or adopt innovations from alt-coins (adaptive blocksize anyone?) when it's clearly advantageous to do so, is now empirically in question.

So you can count me as one of the people who's been staunchly Bitcoiin-maximalist for *years*, but is now questioning Bitcoin's direction in a fundamental way that I have not before. There hasn't been an event in Bitcoin, until now, which threatens to fundamentally change Bitcoin's longterm vision and key value. So it's pretty darn reasonable for people to start looking elsewhere. I personally haven't converted any cold-storage BTC to alts, but as you note, I'm seeing long-time Bitcoiners do so (or at least talk about it) for the first time. Core and supporters may want to take notice before the reality that Bitcoin is not operating in a competition-free vacuum hits them in the face. There's still time to fix this. But not much.


I am a Maximalist ('BTC's Holy Ledger is the Mother of All Blockchains and Father of All Settlement Networks'), but not a Maximalist Monopolist Supremacist ('only BTC should exist; all alts are scams Because Natural Monopoly and Reasons').

Like smoothie and many others, I've been advocating/predicting Nash equilibrium among Bitcoin and the (legtimate) alts since Litecoin was created.  So spare us the strawman about delusions of Bitcoin "operating in a competition-free vacuum."

Your FUD train is a FUD train, and deserves to be dismissed.  Reiterating your train of FUD doesn't change that, but confirms everything Kozi said.

Nothing fundamental in Bitcoin has changed; it still works almost perfectly.  Your Chicken Little 'sky-is-falling' panic inducement has no effect on the Honey Badger.

He doesn't really give a shit about your 'this-time-is-different-FOR-SURE' litany of fretfulness and "stonewalling/stagnating/scary" rhetoric of concern trolling.

The world adapts to Honey Badger; he does not jump through the latest trendy software hoop every time some Panicky Penelopes feel like wetting their pants over losing use cases (marginal or otherwise) to altcoins.

You even put the classic false sense of urgency in at the end of your post.  Nice touch.  Very good ad copy, what with the creation of a need/problem, offer of a solution, and final call to action.

But sorry, no sale.  Control variables like blocksize, which effect the economics and decentralization of e-cash/crypto experiments, are not going to be changed for no good reason.  We'll have segwit ASAP, so let's calm down and avoid having a Hearnia.   Wink

The proper way to expand the experimental search of e-cash state space is by creating parallel experiments with adjusted parameters.  It's best to have Bitcoin follow through on its commitment to limited/fixed blocks, while Monero tries a different approach with dynamic blocks.

Bolting onto Bitcoin the latest shiny new altcoin thing only concentrates risk and reduces diversity of options available to users.
member
Activity: 78
Merit: 10
March 18, 2016, 03:58:21 PM
Wow I just looked at poloniex today the bid volumes more than doubled!
And its all in one buy order that can be removed at the whim of one entity.

Wink yes that's true now if I was a whale and didn't want people to realize what you said, I would break my bid orders up to make it look natural. You are right I wouldn't expect much right now.
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