I am still freaked out by the total volume in alts. Does it not seem fishy to anybody else?
I'm willing to accept the premise that it seems to be flowing from ETH as that dump continues. But if you look back to January 1st, the total market cap in alts has gone from less than a billion to more than $1.5 billion. That's a 30%+ jump and it's more than $500 million in new money.
Where is THAT coming from...and WHY? That's a pretty big reallocation of capital, but from where? Doesn't seem like it could be hedge funds and other financial players because Central banks are in stimulus mode.
A lot of that is out of thin air. Just because marketcap goes up 500 million does not mean 500 million was invested. The value was created from a much smaller amount of money being used to push prices up. In fact a lot of altcoins are premined so hard that the founders can push the marketcap to millions of dollars with only a few thousand dollars worth of investment. It's pretty artificial.
This.
I think it's reasonable to assume that the big FUD storm regarding bitcoin blocksize had made more bitcoiners interested in diversifying into altcoins, I've notice a trend of high profile bitcoin figures voicing support for various altcoins or jumping on the BTC FUD train.
"FUD train" is a bit dismissive and papers over the fact that for the first time, Bitcoin is meaningfully handing key use-cases to alts. Core's roadmap that clearly has no regard for keeping on-chain fees as cheap as possible for as long as possible, is opening the door for alts to satisfy the demand for secure & cheap transactions. Further, Core stonewalling the community, and stagnating development that's actually meaningful to users is scary.
Thus, the key thesis that Bitcoin can and will adapt when necessary, and/or adopt innovations from alt-coins (adaptive blocksize anyone?) when it's clearly advantageous to do so, is now empirically in question.
So you can count me as one of the people who's been staunchly Bitcoiin-maximalist for *years*, but is now questioning Bitcoin's direction in a fundamental way that I have not before. There hasn't been an event in Bitcoin, until now, which threatens to fundamentally change Bitcoin's longterm vision and key value. So it's pretty darn reasonable for people to start looking elsewhere. I personally haven't converted any cold-storage BTC to alts, but as you note, I'm seeing long-time Bitcoiners do so (or at least talk about it) for the first time. Core and supporters may want to take notice before the reality that Bitcoin is not operating in a competition-free vacuum hits them in the face. There's still time to fix this. But not much.