[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1590.

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

Quote from: luigi1111 on January 14, 2016, 12:58:01 PM

Quote from: birr on January 14, 2016, 12:06:58 PM

I stand corrected. I think the chance of getting one or more double block in a day, including any double that's part of a triple
1 - (1 - .025^2)^1339 =~57%
Using exponents 3 and 1338, you have about a 2% chance of hitting a triple on any given day.

Now we're on the same page. Though, I don't think it's correct to subtract from the exponent like that, but I could be wrong.

Let's see if this makes sense.
Consider a group of three consecutive blocks.
Your chance of winning at least one is
1 - (1 - .025^1)^3
Your chance of winning at least two in a row is
1 - (1 - .025^2)^2
Your chance of winning all three is .025^3, or 1 - (1 - .025^3)^1.
The sum of the exponents is constant.

8XMR

member

Activity: 88

Merit: 10

Quote from: Hueristic on January 14, 2016, 11:36:16 AM

WTF is with these trolls?

I posted to get on Polo for another coin Ive been part of since day 1 that I'd to see a XMR/VPN pairing and I get this shit.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13535318

This looks like a concerted effort to keep the price down. I'm wondering if these P&D groups are accumulating.
[/quote

It make no sense attack you since you are known supported of VPN coin. Not only he is a troll, apparently he is not smart one.

I like XMR trade pairings on Poloniex and hope they create more volume in the future.

luigi1111

legendary

Activity: 1105

Merit: 1000

Quote from: birr on January 14, 2016, 12:06:58 PM

I stand corrected. I think the chance of getting one or more double block in a day, including any double that's part of a triple
1 - (1 - .025^2)^1339 =~57%
Using exponents 3 and 1338, you have about a 2% chance of hitting a triple on any given day.

Now we're on the same page. Though, I don't think it's correct to subtract from the exponent like that, but I could be wrong.

slapper

legendary

Activity: 1946

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: Hueristic on January 14, 2016, 11:36:16 AM

WTF is with these trolls?

I posted to get on Polo for another coin Ive been part of since day 1 that I'd to see a XMR/VPN pairing and I get this shit.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13535318

This looks like a concerted effort to keep the price down. I'm wondering if these P&D groups are accumulating.

Quote from: Hueristic on January 14, 2016, 11:31:53 AM

Blow me bitch, I haven't held XMR since dec of 2014. Idiot

And how exactly is it going to help your stance? What's next sucking TrueCryptonnaire's wang?

Why not try in r/crymeariver ? Dumbass c*nt

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

I stand corrected. I think the chance of getting one or more double block in a day, including any double that's part of a triple
1 - (1 - .025^2)^1339 =~57%
Using exponents 3 and 1338, you have about a 2% chance of hitting a triple on any given day.

GTO911

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: Hueristic on January 14, 2016, 11:36:16 AM

WTF is with these trolls?

I posted to get on Polo for another coin Ive been part of since day 1 that I'd to see a XMR/VPN pairing and I get this shit.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13535318

This looks like a concerted effort to keep the price down. I'm wondering if these P&D groups are accumulating.

HCL is a known troll which hates Monero, maybe you missed it. Add it to you list

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

WTF is with these trolls?

I posted to get on Polo for another coin Ive been part of since day 1 that I'd to see a XMR/VPN pairing and I get this shit.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13535318

This looks like a concerted effort to keep the price down. I'm wondering if these P&D groups are accumulating.

luigi1111

legendary

Activity: 1105

Merit: 1000

Quote from: birr on January 13, 2016, 09:50:43 PM

Quote from: luigi1111 on January 13, 2016, 11:43:19 AM

All of these numbers and formulas are wrong (except smooth, who is just giving rough numbers anyway). Risto's is admittedly labeled as a simplification.

With 2.5% of the network hash rate, you have about a 60% chance of getting one or more double blocks each day. On average, you should get 27 double blocks per month. Every time you get a double block, you have a chance to get a triple block, so you end up with something like (per month):

a 50.4806% chance of no triple
a 34.9481% chance of one triple
a 11.6494% of two triples
a 2.9219% chance of three or more triples

Again, this is just on an average month and obviously assumes your % hash rate remains constant.

The chance of getting at least two blocks in a row is 90%.
If you count only double blocks that are not part of triple blocks, the probability is lower than 90%. I haven't worked it out.

No, it's not. The math you used to arrive at 90% (.025 x .025 x 1440) is not how probabilities work. 60% is much closer to the actual number.

iCEBREAKER

legendary

Activity: 2156

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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: Bassica on January 14, 2016, 05:28:40 AM

Pretty crazy to see XMR's marketcap being only 12.207 btc whilst it's ranked number 7 on coingecko.com. First coin having a lower marketcap is number 14, which is ftc.

Talking about undervalued!

Check it out: https://www.coingecko.com/en

I think the (comparative) undervaluation is intentionally created by XMR's aggressive early emission schedule, so everyone can get a nice stack of cheap early coins and start bootstrapping ASAP.

Thanks for reminding me to post this:

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

Monero is a tiny newborn baby in terms of full nodes and global distribution (WTF Australia/India/Brazil? Get with it!). Tongue

If Szabo or another crypto-celebrity blessed Monero with just half of the public attention he's directed towards ETH, node number could easily rise by an order of magnitude or two.

Even without some famous person's endorsement, we have nowhere to go but up, up, up! Cool

mathgal23

full member

Activity: 150

Merit: 102

Quote from: luigi1111 on January 13, 2016, 11:43:19 AM

All of these numbers and formulas are wrong (except smooth, who is just giving rough numbers anyway). Risto's is admittedly labeled as a simplification.

With 2.5% of the network hash rate, you have about a 60% chance of getting one or more double blocks each day. On average, you should get 27 double blocks per month. Every time you get a double block, you have a chance to get a triple block, so you end up with something like (per month):

a 50.4806% chance of no triple
a 34.9481% chance of one triple
a 11.6494% of two triples
a 2.9219% chance of three or more triples

Again, this is just on an average month and obviously assumes your % hash rate remains constant.

Probabilities are fun. If I get time I will look at the math more later.

Bassica

sr. member

Activity: 283

Merit: 250

Pretty crazy to see XMR's marketcap being only 12.207 btc whilst it's ranked number 7 on coingecko.com. First coin having a lower marketcap is number 14, which is ftc.

Talking about undervalued!

Check it out: https://www.coingecko.com/en

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

Quote from: luigi1111 on January 13, 2016, 11:43:19 AM

All of these numbers and formulas are wrong (except smooth, who is just giving rough numbers anyway). Risto's is admittedly labeled as a simplification.

With 2.5% of the network hash rate, you have about a 60% chance of getting one or more double blocks each day. On average, you should get 27 double blocks per month. Every time you get a double block, you have a chance to get a triple block, so you end up with something like (per month):

a 50.4806% chance of no triple
a 34.9481% chance of one triple
a 11.6494% of two triples
a 2.9219% chance of three or more triples

Again, this is just on an average month and obviously assumes your % hash rate remains constant.

The chance of getting at least two blocks in a row is 90%.
If you count only double blocks that are not part of triple blocks, the probability is lower than 90%. I haven't worked it out.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Does anyone know when bittrex withdrawals will be available? How long has it been disabled?

luigi1111

legendary

Activity: 1105

Merit: 1000

All of these numbers and formulas are wrong (except smooth, who is just giving rough numbers anyway). Risto's is admittedly labeled as a simplification.

With 2.5% of the network hash rate, you have about a 60% chance of getting one or more double blocks each day. On average, you should get 27 double blocks per month. Every time you get a double block, you have a chance to get a triple block, so you end up with something like (per month):

a 50.4806% chance of no triple
a 34.9481% chance of one triple
a 11.6494% of two triples
a 2.9219% chance of three or more triples

Again, this is just on an average month and obviously assumes your % hash rate remains constant.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: papa_lazzarou on January 13, 2016, 09:12:23 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 13, 2016, 04:11:17 AM

(It seems that some people are not that far off thinking "smooth = me", because we do seem to think same way .. Wink

)

Do you have any idea about the multitude of threads this will spawn???

It's an old accusation, I actually heard about it somewhat recently. Just imagine how much I(=we) earn to operate 2 legendary accounts with 10,000 posts... Roll Eyes

papa_lazzarou

hero member

Activity: 649

Merit: 500

Quote from: rpietila on January 13, 2016, 04:11:17 AM

(It seems that some people are not that far off thinking "smooth = me", because we do seem to think same way .. Wink

)

Do you have any idea about the multitude of threads this will spawn???

papa_lazzarou

hero member

Activity: 649

Merit: 500

Quote from: smooth on January 12, 2016, 04:32:42 PM

Quote from: primer- on January 12, 2016, 04:28:49 PM

Current difficulty : 1124815084

Sept. 2015 - Jan 2016
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart

If my memory serves me right, ATH was 114xxx .. Monero price was .0055 back then..

Chainradar shows 154... on August 30, 2014. But if someone queries the blockchain database they can get an exact number for the highest difficulty on any single block.

Price was near 400k sat at this time and if I am not mistaken this was just before BitcoinEXpress' time warp threat.

+--------+-----------------+--------------------------+
| height | block_difficulty | date |
+--------+-----------------+--------------------------+
| 216289 | 1854402895 | 2014-09-13 15:27:52 |
| 216286 | 1853088273 | 2014-09-13 15:22:48 |
| 216285 | 1850301106 | 2014-09-13 15:21:59 |
| 216287 | 1850021142 | 2014-09-13 15:26:53 |
| 216284 | 1849488407 | 2014-09-13 15:20:22 |
| 216288 | 1849355574 | 2014-09-13 15:26:58 |
| 216296 | 1848614128 | 2014-09-13 15:34:30 |
| 216283 | 1848382220 | 2014-09-13 15:17:48 |
| 216282 | 1848082216 | 2014-09-13 15:14:35 |
| 216280 | 1847537982 | 2014-09-13 15:13:39 |
+--------+------------------+--------------------------+

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

On any given day, 90% chance of getting (at least) two blocks in a row.
.025 x .025 x 1440
Chance of getting three in a row, 2.25%
.025^3 x 1440
Four in a row .05625%
Five in a row .001406% or about every 200 years

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: opennux on January 13, 2016, 12:41:25 AM

So two in a row is (1/48)*(1/48)= 1/2304

Three blocks in a row is (1/48)*(1/48)*(1/48) = 1/110592

As you can clearly see I suck at statistics.

The actual math can be expressed like this (even though it is a simplification but helps to point out your main error):

- If someone has a 2.5% chance of getting any random block, it means he gets 1440*2.5%= 36 blocks per day on average.
- Regardless who had the previous block (even himself), he has 2.5% chance of getting the next one.
- Therefore, he has 36*2.5% ~100% chance to get two in a row in each day.
- Getting three in a row is indeed more difficult and should happen on average a few times per year.
- I am not in the mood to calculate the statistically significant 2-, 3- etc sigma events (improbable events), I'd say 5 in a row is significant, 4 is not.

(It seems that some people are not that far off thinking "smooth = me", because we do seem to think same way .. Wink

)

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

If you have 2.5% of the hash rate your chance of winning any block is 1/40. Assuming you won a particular block the chance that you also won the previous block is 1/40.

That's 36 blocks per day meaning that right around one of those should be a double. Roughly once a month you would expect a triple. Obviously this is random so it could be zero times in a month or several times a month. That is all expected.

Not only that but the hash rate on the network fluctuates due to solar power or who knows. So if you are averaging 2.5% then sometimes you are probably close to 5%, other times maybe 1%. When you are 5% the frequency of doubles/triples/etc. becomes much higher (more than double). At 5% (if sustained 24h/day) you would expect 3-4 double blocks per day, and a triple a week.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1590. (Read 3313670 times)