[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1591.

opennux

full member

Activity: 231

Merit: 100

Quote from: smooth on January 12, 2016, 08:31:34 PM

Quote from: saddambitcoin on January 12, 2016, 06:28:54 PM

I dunno, sounds like luck to me. You have 1% of the hashrate, you have a good chance of getting blocks no matter what.

At 300 kh/s that is 2-3% of the hashrate not 1%. You expect two in a row like every day or more. Three in a row is no big deal.

Are people handwaving this question - or not?

What is the probability of this? 2-3% he should be getting 20-40 blocks a day. Let's say 30 blocks. Which means the probability of him solving a block is 1440/30 = 1/48.

So two in a row is (1/48)*(1/48)= 1/2304

Three blocks in a row is (1/48)*(1/48)*(1/48) = 1/110592

?

As you can clearly see I suck at statistics.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: saddambitcoin on January 12, 2016, 06:28:54 PM

I dunno, sounds like luck to me. You have 1% of the hashrate, you have a good chance of getting blocks no matter what.

At 300 kh/s that is 2-3% of the hashrate not 1%. You expect two in a row like every day or more. Three in a row is no big deal.

wpalczynski

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Variance.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Even though it might be luck, it might be a good idea to dive into a bit.

saddambitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1004

I dunno, sounds like luck to me. You have 1% of the hashrate, you have a good chance of getting blocks no matter what.

primer-

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: binaryFate on January 12, 2016, 06:17:03 PM

Quote from: primer- on January 12, 2016, 06:10:35 PM

I hit three blocks in a row again, with less than 300kh/s .. This shouldn't be possible at the current difficulty...

Code:

909839 49 to go 1054658909 eaf7aabb143fe3aef10bdfee8d8ecb7eabc7c32f479d17361493ec90bc8b936e 1/12/2016, 11:53:48 PM 3%
909837 47 to go 1057789727 d52b7b1afb24a093e8d3d642014062a0910d232197ffaa8221f6588ab580ea17 1/12/2016, 11:51:58 PM 10%
909833 43 to go 1060389309 3d7bf46d75c5847a1deed22dfa19da42ad0eb0eb8895dba2fa1990732f0e3514 1/12/2016, 11:45:31 PM 2%
909832 42 to go 1058626345 7f967bbc5076d0cfddc297565acd253dc6b08caddf3f573b321f84cae68b899b 1/12/2016, 11:44:22 PM 3%
909831 41 to go 1057809920 0b355e2c882eff0c0392d2ff49ffb8a06ddfe733e63a761ae966c9d8fe5d5ac0 1/12/2016, 11:42:08 PM 29%

Seems like block propagation is the issue here, once you hit a block probability you get the next one is higher than it should be..

EDIT : This needs to be looked at, pools or anyone with high hash rate might find a way to exploit this..

It's not really "higher than it should be", there is no "what it should be". Yes probability to find a block is slightly higher if you know the previous one before anyone else, and it's not an exploit, just a fact due to propagation times.
I doubt this is having a meaningful (visible) impact with 1mn time blocks, but anyway the network will switch to 2mn blocks next hard fork (March).

I've been finding 2-3-4 blocks in a row both yesterday and today, with around 1% of total net hash. Do the math, this should not happen! Just imagine the advantage miners with 1mh/s+ have...
Today's sudden rise in diff. stinks of an exploit ..

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: primer- on January 12, 2016, 06:10:35 PM

I hit three blocks in a row again, with less than 300kh/s .. This shouldn't be possible at the current difficulty...

Code:

909839 49 to go 1054658909 eaf7aabb143fe3aef10bdfee8d8ecb7eabc7c32f479d17361493ec90bc8b936e 1/12/2016, 11:53:48 PM 3%
909837 47 to go 1057789727 d52b7b1afb24a093e8d3d642014062a0910d232197ffaa8221f6588ab580ea17 1/12/2016, 11:51:58 PM 10%
909833 43 to go 1060389309 3d7bf46d75c5847a1deed22dfa19da42ad0eb0eb8895dba2fa1990732f0e3514 1/12/2016, 11:45:31 PM 2%
909832 42 to go 1058626345 7f967bbc5076d0cfddc297565acd253dc6b08caddf3f573b321f84cae68b899b 1/12/2016, 11:44:22 PM 3%
909831 41 to go 1057809920 0b355e2c882eff0c0392d2ff49ffb8a06ddfe733e63a761ae966c9d8fe5d5ac0 1/12/2016, 11:42:08 PM 29%

Seems like block propagation is the issue here, once you hit a block probability you get the next one is higher than it should be..

EDIT : This needs to be looked at, pools or anyone with high hash rate might find a way to exploit this..

It's not really "higher than it should be", there is no "what it should be". Yes probability to find a block is slightly higher if you know the previous one before anyone else, and it's not an exploit, just a fact due to propagation times.
I doubt this is having a meaningful (visible) impact with 1mn time blocks, but anyway the network will switch to 2mn blocks next hard fork (March).

primer-

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

I hit three blocks in a row again, with less than 300kh/s .. This shouldn't be possible at the current difficulty...

Code:

909839 49 to go 1054658909 eaf7aabb143fe3aef10bdfee8d8ecb7eabc7c32f479d17361493ec90bc8b936e 1/12/2016, 11:53:48 PM 3%
909837 47 to go 1057789727 d52b7b1afb24a093e8d3d642014062a0910d232197ffaa8221f6588ab580ea17 1/12/2016, 11:51:58 PM 10%
909833 43 to go 1060389309 3d7bf46d75c5847a1deed22dfa19da42ad0eb0eb8895dba2fa1990732f0e3514 1/12/2016, 11:45:31 PM 2%
909832 42 to go 1058626345 7f967bbc5076d0cfddc297565acd253dc6b08caddf3f573b321f84cae68b899b 1/12/2016, 11:44:22 PM 3%
909831 41 to go 1057809920 0b355e2c882eff0c0392d2ff49ffb8a06ddfe733e63a761ae966c9d8fe5d5ac0 1/12/2016, 11:42:08 PM 29%

Seems like block propagation is the issue here, once you hit a block probability you get the next one is higher than it should be..

EDIT : This needs to be looked at, pools or anyone with high hash rate might find a way to exploit this..

primer-

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smooth on January 12, 2016, 04:32:42 PM

Quote from: primer- on January 12, 2016, 04:28:49 PM

Current difficulty : 1124815084

Sept. 2015 - Jan 2016
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart

If my memory serves me right, ATH was 114xxx .. Monero price was .0055 back then..

Chainradar shows 154... on August 30, 2014. But if someone queries the blockchain database they can get an exact number for the highest difficulty on any single block.

Oh, I meant to say 14xx

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: primer- on January 12, 2016, 04:28:49 PM

Current difficulty : 1124815084

Sept. 2015 - Jan 2016
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart

If my memory serves me right, ATH was 114xxx .. Monero price was .0055 back then..

Chainradar shows 154... on August 30, 2014. But if someone queries the blockchain database they can get an exact number for the highest difficulty on any single block.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: obit33 on January 12, 2016, 04:11:22 PM

Quote from: wpalczynski on January 12, 2016, 02:51:57 PM

Price will follow hashrate and difficulty.

why not the other way around? just curious?

There is a degree of effect in both directions but the price to hash rate is more direct. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13434783

However, other factors can affect hash rate such as the price of other coins that can be mined with the same equipment, so the relationships are always noisy.

primer-

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Current difficulty : 1124815084

Sept. 2015 - Jan 2016
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart

If my memory serves me right, ATH was 114xxx .. Monero price was .0055 back then..

newb4now

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Quote from: Bassica on January 12, 2016, 03:00:06 PM

Some entities pointed some serious power towards our little gem... Crazy power.

Maybe they've got the hydrogen helix memo?

It was a great memo. I hope many people receive it.

obit33

sr. member

Activity: 514

Merit: 258

Quote from: wpalczynski on January 12, 2016, 02:51:57 PM

Price will follow hashrate and difficulty.

why not the other way around? just curious?

best regards

Bassica

sr. member

Activity: 283

Merit: 250

Sweet. Weekly MACD about to flip, hopefully the other times it went positive will be of reference:

Bassica

sr. member

Activity: 283

Merit: 250

Some entities pointed some serious power towards our little gem... Crazy power.

Maybe they've got the hydrogen helix memo?

wpalczynski

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Price will follow hashrate and difficulty.

primer-

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

The diff is still increasing, almost all-time-high!
Difficulty: 1087200493

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: medusa13 on January 12, 2016, 02:11:54 PM

hard to say what it is.
since the rise seems to correspond with the "normal" oscilation, my guess is its the same entity. maybe they upgraded the zombiebots, but this wouldnt go so fast. maybe they just allocated more zombies and the botnet these people control is much bigger. maybe they just rent it and got themselfs even more now. no one knows i only speculate

anyway the oscilation is interesting. heard many ideas, someone who steals recouces at night/day is my best explanation. but if its office/company equipment mining, weekends should be visible. but they are not, so maybe its something completely different too..

Solar panels?

medusa13

sr. member

Activity: 453

Merit: 500

hello world

hard to say what it is.
since the rise seems to correspond with the "normal" oscilation, my guess is its the same entity. maybe they upgraded the zombiebots, but this wouldnt go so fast. maybe they just allocated more zombies and the botnet these people control is much bigger. maybe they just rent it and got themselfs even more now. no one knows i only speculate

anyway the oscilation is interesting. heard many ideas, someone who steals recouces at night/day is my best explanation. but if its office/company equipment mining, weekends should be visible. but they are not, so maybe its something completely different too..

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1591. (Read 3313670 times)