[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1599.

generalizethis

legendary

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Facts are more efficient than fud

Quote from: americanpegasus on January 04, 2016, 09:28:07 AM

Quote from: generalizethis on January 04, 2016, 04:34:23 AM

Though I'd like to see the fantasy art as you dreamed it. A masked Satoshi throwing lightning bolts at banksters while riding a winged fluffy pony would be pretty bad ass.

Hehe.

If Satoshi wants to borrow my account for a bit to do some trolling, he would only have to ask. Cheesy

Anyway, don't be so quick to wish for this. Bitcoin would have benefitted from the talent and intellect behind it coming out and saying, "Here are my/our creditentials. Look what we made."

But it didn't, and as a result truly transcended borders. It was a force arising from nothing.

The universe would make a lot more sense too if God came out and said, "Yep, it was me. How do you like it?" But instead we have a mysterious dimension that has arisen from nothing with nothing backing it.

Monero too must walk the hard road, and arise from nothing, same as all other 'universes' have. It is this struggle that gives it legitimacy. If some mysterious force can suddenly shift his beliefs at a whim, what's to say he/she/they won't do it again?

Monero doesn't need Satoshi's name; the talent and technology those individuals have likely brought to Cryptonote behind the scenes are enough.

I agree that Monero doesn't need Satoshi's backing. But on the flip side of that, I doubt it would hurt and Satoshi would be true to his broader cypherpunk aims if he did back a coin that proved to be more disruptive to the regime that inspired him (or HER, inconceivable said a short, lispy, balding man) to create Bitcoin in the first place.

And on another topic, why aren't you playing CryptoKingdom? You'd probably love it and we could use your infectious attitude now that the game is ramping up for a broader audience.

americanpegasus

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 504

Quote from: generalizethis on January 04, 2016, 04:34:23 AM

Though I'd like to see the fantasy art as you dreamed it. A masked Satoshi throwing lightning bolts at banksters while riding a winged fluffy pony would be pretty bad ass.

Hehe.

If Satoshi wants to borrow my account for a bit to do some trolling, he would only have to ask. Cheesy

Anyway, don't be so quick to wish for this. Bitcoin would have benefitted from the talent and intellect behind it coming out and saying, "Here are my/our creditentials. Look what we made."

But it didn't, and as a result truly transcended borders. It was a force arising from nothing.

The universe would make a lot more sense too if God came out and said, "Yep, it was me. How do you like it?" But instead we have a mysterious dimension that has arisen from nothing with nothing backing it.

Monero too must walk the hard road, and arise from nothing, same as all other 'universes' have. It is this struggle that gives it legitimacy. If some mysterious force can suddenly shift his beliefs at a whim, what's to say he/she/they won't do it again?

Monero doesn't need Satoshi's name; the talent and technology those individuals have likely brought to Cryptonote behind the scenes are enough.

digicoin

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smooth on January 04, 2016, 04:06:41 AM

Quote from: digicoin on January 04, 2016, 03:52:20 AM

Why do you think that they are wrong? What is your proposal?

but I favor a hard fork to 2 MB followed by a slow automatic increase of maybe 10% per year for say 10-20 years. Slow enough that if it looks to be running out beyond hardware improvements it can be rolled back with 1-2 year lead time for another fork.

Your proposal is still developer-centric (like BIP101) because it requires developer's decision on code change to enforce hard economic rules. It is still political because miners, merchants and end users can question if 10% increase is very conservative or not. If 10% increase is too low, Bitcoin may need another hard fork. Meanwhile hard forking is a complicated issue in Bitcoin community. I really think rolling hard fork in Monero is an important feature in the future.

PS: I am a big blocker, support hard fork (not conservative soft fork word-arounds) if needed to move Bitcoin's development forward

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: Monero_Magician on January 04, 2016, 04:31:41 AM

I have been following Monero off and on for about a year now, and have been accumulating various amounts since around March of last year. I certainly do not know as much about Monero or other cryptocurrencies as most of y'all, however, similar to what somebody was saying earlier- bubbles can be immensely beneficial for the Monero community. Just as he was saying, out of bubbles such as the 1929 bubble, the dot com bubble, or even the Bitcoin bubble, many long lasting companies and investors were created. Monero is the internet's best kept secret and the community suffers from a serious lack of publicity and marketing. Now with the recent update more of the general public can become involved and begin to pump up prices and begin generating serious interest in this wonderful project.

P.S. I have my own hopes and predictions, but, I would like to ask all of you where you see the price of Monero in the next: month, 3 months, 6 months, and year- respectively.

That's not easy to answear really.
It is all about marketing and selling this project to people outside of this forum. Potentially there are probably quite big need for a coin like this but unfortunately the problem is the ones needing Monero the most probably never heared it before.
If the marketing issue will be fixed, I think everything else will follow as a positive loop that I've described in my earlier post into this thread.
A few million usd invested in Monero will bring the price to another level. The whales probably own so large share of the pie that pouring out a couple of millions of dollars increase the marketcap by quantom leap.
To marketbuy Monero until 0.01 (roughly 10 times from current) costs around 1300 btc and to maintain it it is required with current emission 108 btc/day. I am not taking into account the number of coins sitting on sidelines waiting to be sold but also I am not taking into account "fake sell orders" either. Therefore, if there are 1000 people actively buying coins, one buyer needs to spend 0.11 btc/day to maintain it there and if this 0.11 btc/buyer/day is a constant flow of btc into Monero the price start to rise slowly from there even without much pumping due to gradual decrease in coins mined per day.

generalizethis

legendary

Activity: 1750

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Facts are more efficient than fud

Quote from: zhalox on January 04, 2016, 12:47:34 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on January 03, 2016, 07:48:02 PM

Quote from: owm123 on January 03, 2016, 07:37:10 PM

Regarding the quote. I'm not cryptographer, but Andersen said that this quote does not really make sense from the cryptographic point of view, and rather proves that Satoshi was not a cryptographer and had only high level knowledge of cryptography. Real cryptographers would never say something like this

Source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ3e1Pzu7iI&feature=youtu.be&t=748

So not sure if this is really a quote that Monero want to use this quote from Satoshi, as apparently it has no sense.

Indeed, to Gavin credit he doesn't say this quote does not make sense, but that this is the 101 of crypto. My understanding is that Gavin refers to the vague "informal" formulation in the quote, not to the meaning of it. The conclusion of Gavin just based on this poor formulation is really stretched though. The quote was actually a forum post so of course it's not formulated as a science paper.
Worth mentioning that the post of Satoshi with that quote also mentions stealth addresses. In a way, all Monero is in there

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9074

One night I had a dream that Satoshi Nakamoto himself came back from the dead with his verified PGP key to provide a sign from above that Monero was the one true coin to rule them all. A voice thundered from the heavens, "Monero is my beloved coin, listen & take heed," with Satoshi's PGP key signature in the clouds, and a white dove came forth and perched upon the fluffy pony's shoulder. With Satoshi's blessing the XMR price skyrocketed to $3,141.59 per coin, and the trollboxes of the earth went nuts. Then I awoke and behold it was a dream... Wink

It wouldn't even have to be this complicated. If you saw his funds move into a coin, you'd see that coin become the one. Though I'd like to see the fantasy art as you dreamed it. A masked Satoshi throwing lightning bolts at banksters while riding a winged fluffy pony would be pretty bad ass.

Monero_Magician

newbie

Activity: 7

Merit: 0

I have been following Monero off and on for about a year now, and have been accumulating various amounts since around March of last year. I certainly do not know as much about Monero or other cryptocurrencies as most of y'all, however, similar to what somebody was saying earlier- bubbles can be immensely beneficial for the Monero community. Just as he was saying, out of bubbles such as the 1929 bubble, the dot com bubble, or even the Bitcoin bubble, many long lasting companies and investors were created. Monero is the internet's best kept secret and the community suffers from a serious lack of publicity and marketing. Now with the recent update more of the general public can become involved and begin to pump up prices and begin generating serious interest in this wonderful project.

P.S. I have my own hopes and predictions, but, I would like to ask all of you where you see the price of Monero in the next: month, 3 months, 6 months, and year- respectively.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on January 04, 2016, 03:57:31 AM

Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2016, 06:34:47 AM

This fantastic image illustrates the feedback loops that lead to growth and success. It was originally created about Bitcoin but applies equally to Monero.

That's neat. It should also indicate higher price --> user adoption because higher prices allow each tx/block to perform more economic 'work' (ie transfer more information/value).

Good point. It also, similarly, expands the potential user base to additional markets. Bitcoin at its present scale is completely uninteresting as a reserve currency, for example, even if the technology could handle that easily. It is entirely a function of price.

I'm thinking about spending some time to rework the diagram a bit. I'll include that.

smooth

legendary

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Quote from: digicoin on January 04, 2016, 03:52:20 AM

Why do you think that they are wrong? What is your proposal?

They're wrong in so far as they both propose that one particular subset of the system has ultimate control over it (miners in the case of the first post and users in the case of the second). They all have varying degrees of influence; none has unilateral control. (Also "miners" and "users" are not really decision making entities which is another problem with both arguments -- fallacy of composition/division.)

As far as my proposal, it doesn't really matter because they won't listen to me but I favor a hard fork to 2 MB followed by a slow automatic increase of maybe 10% per year for say 10-20 years. Slow enough that if it looks to be running out beyond hardware improvements it can be rolled back with 1-2 year lead time for another fork. Ultimately, though, it is up to the various interest groups to work it out or fight it out, because it won't work unless all are somehow on board. Messy and ugly but it is delusional and wishful thinking to think you can remove politics from this process.

iCEBREAKER

legendary

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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2016, 06:34:47 AM

This fantastic image illustrates the feedback loops that lead to growth and success. It was originally created about Bitcoin but applies equally to Monero.

That's neat. It should also indicate higher price --> user adoption because higher prices allow each tx/block to perform more economic 'work' (ie transfer more information/value).

One simple way to scale BTC/XMR is to hoard or otherwise drive the price up.

digicoin

legendary

Activity: 1106

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Why do you think that they are wrong? What is your proposal?

smooth

legendary

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Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2016, 06:34:47 AM

One way it has been misinterpreted is giving the orientation some sort of significance (e.g. that "Hoarders" on the top the most important or fundamental). In reality the image could be arbitrarily rotated or otherwise transformed and still be correct, so none of the individual nodes are the "source" of growth (or favored point of reference in any way); they all are.

Interestingly the same mistake is being made today with respect to "control" over Bitcoin.

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/bitcoin-s-elegant-upgrade-mechanism-miner-voting-66faa35d27af#.whisgqlmm

http://hackingdistributed.com/2016/01/03/time-for-bitcoin-user-voice/

They're both wrong.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2016, 07:21:13 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on January 03, 2016, 07:10:12 PM

There will also be no long term dilution because of the extremely slow and tapering supply expansion.

I guess it depends what you mean by dilution. When one's share of a business is diluted by new investment, it means the percentage of ownership decreases, but it doesn't necessarily mean the value of your investment is smaller. The value may increase, decrease, or remain the same.

It is pretty useful to be very precise about whether one is talking about money supply in nominal units or value of individual units (or something else). The confusion also comes up when people discuss "inflationary" or "deflationary" currencies and end up talking past each other because they are using different meanings. My comment about long-term dilution was referring to money supply units.

Quote

if the average cryptouser starts caring about this minutia

This seems like a questionable premise. Almost everyone agrees that for crypto to become more successful, the user base needs to grow dramatically, which probably means the average crypto user will have significantly less interest in monetary policy and such.

Exactly.
The key in analysing the future value is to compare the increase in money supply to the increase in global GDP. As long as the former is growing in higher speed as long also the purchasing power of Monero will rise. Correct me if I am wrong, historically global GDP growth rate taking account the recessions is roughly slightly over 2 % annually.
But this analysis applies only in situations when absolutely everybody in the world uses Monero. Until then even higher inflation will be absorbed by new adaption.

pa

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Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2016, 08:14:29 PM

That makes sense. Also satoshi seemed somewhat unfamiliar with ring signatures but I've heard cryptographers say that they would be well known to most cryptographers. So that also suggests he was not a cryptographer, at least not a full time one.

It is also widely speculated that 'satoshi' may be more than one person, in which case the person writing that one forum post might not be a cryptographer but some other member of the 'satoshi group' might be.

Or Satoshi was playing dumb to hide his tracks. . .

zhalox

full member

Activity: 176

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XMR = BTC in 2010. Rise chikun.

Quote from: binaryFate on January 03, 2016, 07:48:02 PM

Quote from: owm123 on January 03, 2016, 07:37:10 PM

Regarding the quote. I'm not cryptographer, but Andersen said that this quote does not really make sense from the cryptographic point of view, and rather proves that Satoshi was not a cryptographer and had only high level knowledge of cryptography. Real cryptographers would never say something like this

Source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ3e1Pzu7iI&feature=youtu.be&t=748

So not sure if this is really a quote that Monero want to use this quote from Satoshi, as apparently it has no sense.

Indeed, to Gavin credit he doesn't say this quote does not make sense, but that this is the 101 of crypto. My understanding is that Gavin refers to the vague "informal" formulation in the quote, not to the meaning of it. The conclusion of Gavin just based on this poor formulation is really stretched though. The quote was actually a forum post so of course it's not formulated as a science paper.
Worth mentioning that the post of Satoshi with that quote also mentions stealth addresses. In a way, all Monero is in there

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9074

One night I had a dream that Satoshi Nakamoto himself came back from the dead with his verified PGP key to provide a sign from above that Monero was the one true coin to rule them all. A voice thundered from the heavens, "Monero is my beloved coin, listen & take heed," with Satoshi's PGP key signature in the clouds, and a white dove came forth and perched upon the fluffy pony's shoulder. With Satoshi's blessing the XMR price skyrocketed to $3,141.59 per coin, and the trollboxes of the earth went nuts. Then I awoke and behold it was a dream... Wink

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: binaryFate on January 03, 2016, 07:48:02 PM

Quote from: owm123 on January 03, 2016, 07:37:10 PM

Regarding the quote. I'm not cryptographer, but Andersen said that this quote does not really make sense from the cryptographic point of view, and rather proves that Satoshi was not a cryptographer and had only high level knowledge of cryptography. Real cryptographers would never say something like this

Source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ3e1Pzu7iI&feature=youtu.be&t=748

So not sure if this is really a quote that Monero want to use this quote from Satoshi, as apparently it has no sense.

Indeed, to Gavin credit he doesn't say this quote does not make sense, but that this is the 101 of crypto. My understanding is that Gavin refers to the vague "informal" formulation in the quote, not to the meaning of it. The conclusion of Gavin just based on this poor formulation is really stretched though. The quote was actually a forum post so of course it's not formulated as a science paper.

That makes sense. Also satoshi seemed somewhat unfamiliar with ring signatures but I've heard cryptographers say that they would be well known to most cryptographers. So that also suggests he was not a cryptographer, at least not a full time one.

It is also widely speculated that 'satoshi' may be more than one person, in which case the person writing that one forum post might not be a cryptographer but some other member of the 'satoshi group' might be.

owm123

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: dnaleor on January 03, 2016, 08:03:18 PM

Talking about that Satoshi quote, I gave it a prominent place on my weuse.cash website, that soon^TM will be finished:

http://weuse.cash/2015/12/22/the-satoshi-nakamoto-quote/

Cool website!

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

Talking about that Satoshi quote, I gave it a prominent place on my weuse.cash website, that soon^TM will be finished:

http://weuse.cash/2015/12/22/the-satoshi-nakamoto-quote/

owm123

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on January 03, 2016, 07:55:35 PM

Quote from: binaryFate on January 03, 2016, 07:48:02 PM

Quote from: owm123 on January 03, 2016, 07:37:10 PM

Regarding the quote. I'm not cryptographer, but Andersen said that this quote does not really make sense from the cryptographic point of view, and rather proves that Satoshi was not a cryptographer and had only high level knowledge of cryptography. Real cryptographers would never say something like this

Source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ3e1Pzu7iI&feature=youtu.be&t=748

So not sure if this is really a quote that Monero want to use this quote from Satoshi, as apparently it has no sense.

Indeed, to Gavin credit he doesn't say this quote does not make sense, but that this is the 101 of crypto. My understanding is that Gavin refers to the vague "informal" formulation in the quote, not to the meaning of it. The conclusion of Gavin just based on this poor formulation is really stretched though. The quote was actually a forum post so of course it's not formulated as a science paper.
Worth mentioning that the post of Satoshi with that quote also mentions stealth addresses. In a way, all Monero is in there

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9074

Please correct me if I am wrong, but this part of the post perfectly describes ring signatures:

Quote

As an example, say some unpopular military attack has to be ordered, but nobody wants to go down in history as the one who ordered it. If 10 leaders have private keys, one of them could sign the order and you wouldn't know who did it.

I think fluffypony used a somewhat similiar example in the LTB podcast about a company that had to make a controversial decision (something with the CEO, can't remember exactly).

The second quote about "unpopular military attack" is also from Satoshi. Cool. I didnt now that.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on January 03, 2016, 07:55:35 PM

Please correct me if I am wrong

You're correct.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: binaryFate on January 03, 2016, 07:48:02 PM

Quote from: owm123 on January 03, 2016, 07:37:10 PM

Regarding the quote. I'm not cryptographer, but Andersen said that this quote does not really make sense from the cryptographic point of view, and rather proves that Satoshi was not a cryptographer and had only high level knowledge of cryptography. Real cryptographers would never say something like this

Source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ3e1Pzu7iI&feature=youtu.be&t=748

So not sure if this is really a quote that Monero want to use this quote from Satoshi, as apparently it has no sense.

Indeed, to Gavin credit he doesn't say this quote does not make sense, but that this is the 101 of crypto. My understanding is that Gavin refers to the vague "informal" formulation in the quote, not to the meaning of it. The conclusion of Gavin just based on this poor formulation is really stretched though. The quote was actually a forum post so of course it's not formulated as a science paper.
Worth mentioning that the post of Satoshi with that quote also mentions stealth addresses. In a way, all Monero is in there

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9074

Please correct me if I am wrong, but this part of the post perfectly describes ring signatures:

Quote

As an example, say some unpopular military attack has to be ordered, but nobody wants to go down in history as the one who ordered it. If 10 leaders have private keys, one of them could sign the order and you wouldn't know who did it.

I think fluffypony used a somewhat similiar example in the LTB podcast about a company that had to make a controversial decision (something with the CEO, can't remember exactly).

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1599. (Read 3313576 times)