Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1629. (Read 3313576 times)

i often trade BTC/USD pair - but i only care about EUR
same with monero: just because most volume is in BTC/XMR doesnt mean its mainly valued in btc. its just more convenient to trade BTC/XMR than XMR/USD

Agree somewhat. Supply considerations play a role. This is obvious in the case of PoS coins which pay interest. It is expected that the price per unit will drop over time even if the value of a holding remains constant (increase in units). It is less obvious in the case of PoW, but I'm still not sure the metric of market cap ratio isn't as important as or more important than price ratio, although both are imperfect certainly.

Not really no. What makes commodities tied to USD? Volume. Once USD is no longer being traded for said commodity, it renders it irrelevant. Now take a look at the volume of monero. It's pretty much all in the XMR/BTC pair, the volume on XMR/USD is almost zero. That makes BTC the most important comparison.

Don't really agree on this.
I kinda became a "monero maximalist" in the sense that in the long term, BTC won't be used as money because it isn't fungible.

the transition from BTC -> XMR will happen through people using XMR through services like xmr.to for paying anonymously.

I kinda expect that the Next Bitcoin Bubble ^TM will be a lot slower due to more liquidity and more professional traders while people entering the crypto-sphere also exploring other options earlier and investing in promising alts earlier. So imho, the time is now.

We basically need 0.9 asap, followed by GUI+Trezor integration and a good functioning android app with xmr.to integration as a bonus.

Lol, your statement is patently false. Everything (all commodities) including BTC are tied to USD. You may have fooled yourself into believing otherwise but that's all your doing is deluding yourself.

I really don't consider that to be a problem, payment providers will jump in this gap. There are and will be dozens of different digital currencies, all with their own specifics. Monero's is privacy and fungibility. Monero to fiat or bitcoin makes no difference to me.

Correct, the whole equation is as follows. If % increase in BTC > % decrease in XMR/BTC, you will gain USD value. If % increase in BTC = % decrease in XMR/BTC, you won't lose USD value. If % increase in BTC < % decrease in XMR/BTC, you will lose USD value.

Monero is surprisingly stable. Its holding value even with such a brutal emission. That clearly is a sign that it has a large following

What does that matter though? During a bear market for BTC, with the XMR/BTC ratio holding or falling, the only outcomes are losing USD value as fast as BTC, or losing it faster.

You could monitor the waited average BTC/USD/EUR price here: moneroprice.i2p.xyz. On my opinion it wasn't so irrelevant in the past year. And yes, the XMR/BTC trend should reverse at some point. On my opinion the reverse will happen soon if the whales in the XMR community are making money in this BTC rise. It seems that new people are slowly coming in the BTC world and some in the Monero too, but at the current moment the XMR price depends on the whales, not the newcomers.

I agree with this statement. I would also like to add that if one alt (for instance Monero) counters the trend, probably all traders are going jump on it. So hopefully, Monero can accomplish this. Time will tell I guess.

Quite possibly, in case of short term BTC price spikes altcoin investors might be willing to realize their profit on BTC thus divesting from their altcoins. But in the long term, I think I'd agree with you. The 2014 euphoria seems to have totally faded away; altcoins market in total is still much less than BTC market.

You're only looking at the last two or three months boost in xbt.  How does it look compared to a couple of years ago?  Not very pretty.  We went through a brutal bear market that lasted a year and a half.  And where is the rally we're apparently experiencing now going to lead?  No one knows.

I agree, this will happen at some point, but previously it has happened after a longer rally in BTC. So I wouldn't really expect it to happen yet if history is any indication.

Every altcoin is down against BTC. To me, that indicates the tides are turning, and soon that money will flow back into altcoins. Has that not been the case in every BTC reversal?

Is this how you feel better about your investment crashing? Justifying it by saying it's been stable in USD?
XMR has not been stable. It's been crashing hard. Except for a brief period in the pre-exchange era the price is at all time lows. I'm just sitting here hoping it won't break 0.001 support.

If XMR is not going to outperform BTC why not just own BTC instead? If it's USD you want it makes more sense to hold BTC as long as the ratio falls. I'm not going to be happy with XMR at $1, $10 or even $100 if the XMR/BTC ratio crashes. I never watch the USD price, is seems completely irrelevant.

A falling XMR/BTC ratio indicates failure to compete in the cryptocurrency space.

Not sure if it is the bottom. The price is around $0.4 for about a year now. It is one of the stablest coin in the world.

I think it really depends. If you clearly explain that it's highly volatile and a speculative bet, but with immense potential to the upside while 'only' 100% downside, it's fine I guess. Just don't have them bet the farm, but an amount which they won't miss, but are happy when doubled. If someone has hardly any savings, don't. If they have a healthy portfolio or a decent chunk of savings, plus they don't plan on retiring soon, for the love of god let them get a fraction of that in xmr. I think that is actually a crime if you NOT recommend doing so (be it a very tiny percentage). It is their choice in the end. It's all about presenting the full picture (up AND downside, opportunities AND risks), and not hypesell them into pooring shitloads into it.

I've done this, and yes, i get shit sometimes since we're down, more of a joke/making fun really. But I don't feel like I've mislead them or anything (and so don't they). I've clearly laid out how i see things, and not one of them did an amount which I consider too crazy looking at their financial situation. I'm still fairly confident they'll be happy with the advice in the long run. And if not, part of the game. I think the opportunity was good (and could arguably be even better now) so you take a shot. Whatever the result, the opportunity was there. Hindsight 20/20 right?

That is always the dilemma, no?

But on the other hand, you need to create awareness and adoption. Without promoting it a bit you can't get there. Early bitcoiners did the same.